On gut feeling, if we're specifically talking about Disney stock, I'd say I agree with you. But that being said, if we're just talking a theoretical random stock, I'd say the gamble is nearly identical...Holy cow - you better never think of buying DVC as an investment. An economic crisis could lead to resale prices plummeting 50% and a lack of renters interested in renting your points. Admittedly the same thing could cause the stock to go down, but I would put my money on the stock over DVC.
The only material difference between the two options is that DVC is guaranteed to be zero at the end of the contract, so it's market value is already fighting an uphill battle by its very nature