When we were planning for Cali Grill last year I was told to plan for at least a 30 min wait and to expect an even longer wait if my ADR was within an hour of Wishes- to the point that we might not be seated before the start of the show.
When we went, Wishes was at 10p and our ADR was 7:55p. It was at least 30 min to be seated for us, maybe a tad more. While we didn't get a window table, we did have a great view of the castle, so thankfully that meant we could stay parked at our table for Wishes...which turned out to be a good thing b/c supposedly the outdoor view deck was packed with people who had dined earlier in the evening. I took a look around and very few people seated and eating at the time of the show got up to go out and watch. We also didn't see much table turnover after 9pm. We were being served dessert just as the lights dimmed so the timing worked out great for us...but I think it's a total gamble with these things. i.e. if they're running on time or close to on time and people don't camp out at their tables, you'll probably be fine; however, if it's like the night we went...not so much.