Best months to buy resale

[SteffyLou]

i thought i read somewhere that prices usually go up around December. Resale does seem kind of high to me right now. Is there trypucslly a “slower” or better months to buy resale?

Thanks!

 

[Dean]

i thought i read somewhere that prices usually go up around December. Resale does seem kind of high to me right now. Is there trypucslly a “slower” or better months to buy resale?

Thanks!

Historically they tend to trend down slightly early in the new year but it's not enough to matter and it certainly isn't worth waiting trying to time a down time as the only consideration.

 

[amccu18007]

Resale is extremely high right now. Buying when the economy is in a downturn will get you the best prices. I have seen a huge price increase since the beginning of this year and it does not seem to be going anywhere for awhile. Waiting may be your best bet for a low price. If points are needed soon, maybe think about renting?

 

[kboo]

I've noticed a big upswing in inventory in the last week or so, but asking prices still seem very high. I think there are still bargains to be had, and prices have softened slightly. With direct prices going up, however, it seems unlikely that resale prices will go down significantly.

There seems to be a much wider range of what people will offer and accept now. VGF seems a relative “bargain” because its prices haven’t gone up as much as other resorts (compare BLT, for example).

 

[Cyberc1978]

I would say the best time is NOW as the direct prices are increasing in mid January so my guesstimate is that the resale prices somehow will follow. Even though they have increased throughout the year i think they will increase even more.

Why should anyone owning VGC sell for less than $200 pp when direct is $235?

 

[CraigInPA]

There's typically more supply December through February. As supply decreases, the prices may increase. Right now you're seeing people asking prices based upon the recent sales which have followed a 6 month period where they more or less steadily increased. So, unless you want to wait for an economic downturn where people are selling due to financial distress, you've unlikely to see a decline in prices due to higher supply.

 

[Dean]

Once one is truly ready to buy, waiting has cost as well. I wouldn't wait just because of this issue but I would take the time to do it right and be truly educated.

 

[SL6827]

Prices haven't seemed to come down here recently, but the inventory of contracts have, to me anyways. And this is what I expected. I paid a premium for a small contract, but I figured I would, to just get "my feet wet" with DVC. And that is what I wanted to do. Just get in and see how I like it. I am looking to add on 25 points direct in the future and I think with that addition, it will suffice us for a while since we don't go for very long stays and like to go in the "off" seasons.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

The right time to buy is when you see the contract you want at a price that gives you the feeling that you are getting your money’s worth. All summer people have been advising folks to wait until the end of the year while a few were saying I dont think so, the prices aren’t coming down. And here we are. I feel bad for those who waited. With the direct increases it will only get worse.

 

[Spartan86]

The right time to buy is when you see the contract you want at a price that gives you the feeling that you are getting your money’s worth. All summer people have been advising folks to wait until the end of the year while a few were saying I dont think so, the prices aren’t coming down. And here we are. I feel bad for those who waited. With the direct increases it will only get worse.

But it’s not like the summer inventory, as I recall anyway provided a lot to choose from. Yesterday I bid $4 under ask on a not-so-recently listed 250 point SSR looking to “get my money’s” worth and was not countered plus the seller then re-listed higher. Their prerogative. But I’m not biting. SSR may have been undervalued for a while, I don’t know. But asks are $20-$30 higher in 6 months. If they can sell there, good on em. But not to me. If I’m not alone then prices will soften somewhat. We’ll see.

I’ll ask the more seasoned observers like Dean - have you seen a similar price ramp up over a short period such as this before? Thanks.

 

[Dean]

But it’s not like the summer inventory, as I recall anyway provided a lot to choose from. Yesterday I bid $4 under ask on a not-so-recently listed 250 point SSR looking to “get my money’s” worth and was not countered plus the seller then re-listed higher. Their prerogative. But I’m not biting. SSR may have been undervalued for a while, I don’t know. But asks are $20-$30 higher in 6 months. If they can sell there, good on em. But not to me. If I’m not alone then prices will soften somewhat. We’ll see.

I’ll ask the more seasoned observers like Dean - have you seen a similar price ramp up over a short period such as this before? Thanks.

I can't say I've seen anything this extreme but we've seen this extreme previously was where prices dropped. We will again in all likelihood but it'll likely coincide with an economic downturn which might be less likely now in the short term with the tax changes than it was previously. Personally I'd decide if DVC makes sense where one is today looking at DVC as it functions, price, resale vs retail, and whether DVC makes sense in general (plan ahead, pay cash, use only DVC, for DVC only and the like). But what I might do in today's environment is to be even more likely to underbuy (lower resort, less points) but not too extreme. I likely would not buy for future needs, only what they are now, unless the current needs put me under 150 points and/or future needs are not too far off. I would also be more critical of possible risks such as job loss or health issues at the higher commitment.

This illustrates one of the frustrations I have with some of the threads about usage and buying, that what I or someone else bought or was able two do owning 5, 10 for 15 years ago really doesn't have much meaning for today. DVC is different than it was 10-15 years ago and it will continue to change & evolve. Often those changes will be negative to a subset of the membership. I find it interesting that when people are discussing buying they often assume that the current situation will continue and that usually their normal assumptions are actually close to the the best case scenario. Here's an example, there are those that have gone out and bought smaller contracts with the idea of having an exit strategy or leaving a legacy. That's fine except they often pay a premium to do so, frequently about $10 per point depending on specifics. There are 3 issues with this strategy, there's no guarantee they will be more valuable long term (I'd say it's 50/50 at best), one shouldn't buy anyway planning to sell and there's no way to know if the legacy will be a blessing or a curse.

My personal bottom line would simply be if DVC makes sense sense in my personal situation and the current realities. It may not for some that it would have a few years ago. DVC needs to offer a clear savings looking at the real risks and costs. Look at what the break even is considering the real costs of TVM, opportunity costs, inflation, investing the additional dollars and comparing to reasonable costs either what one would have spent or to a private rental rate NOT the rack rate even discounted.

 

[Spartan86]

Thanks for the observations Dean.

 

[MrInfinity]

i thought i read somewhere that prices usually go up around December. Resale does seem kind of high to me right now. Is there trypucslly a “slower” or better months to buy resale?
Thanks!

Yeah, the end of the year is typically the better time to buy... but these last two years the cyclical fluctuations of around $6 per point by beating the dues payments are being overshadowed by much greater long-term growth. So if BLT was $110 a year and a half ago and it's $140 today.... You could guess that $30 increase is a blend of a $36 long-term increase combined with a $6 December discount. The potential discount due to being December is masked because we see $30 more. It is still there. By the summer, prices will go up more. All factors will be working against you as we pass January...

* Dues will get paid which will drive up the cyclical part -- a little
* The massive growth is still there and the anticipation over new lands is boiling over
* Prices just went up on direct

If you want property, you're not going to get it cheaper by waiting in a growth period. But you won't get it cheap now. I don't anticipate any significant break until Star Wars opens, swells, and has a few years to settle.

 

[SteffyLou]

Thanks everyone!