I suggest you look on cruise and other offsite bookings as the gravy, not the meat. Don't choose the size of your points purchase based on them because they'll change and their value as a bargain is, well, variable. You're a good candidate for DVC if you want a relatively economical way to stay in better-than-deluxe lodgings at one of the DVC resorts at least every other year. Shape your points purchase on that basis, and be delighted if the other options sometimes work out for you.