Bean Counters and shortsightedness

[fatmanatee]

Just to provide data direct from Disney:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448923000171/dis-20230701.htm

For Fiscal 2023 Domestic Park attendance is up 6% so far from Fiscal 2022.

Domestic Hotel Occupancy is at 87% for FY 23 vs 82% for FY22.

Disney’s data doesn’t overlap with TEA directly as their Fiscal Year is from 10/1-9-30.

If we go off calendar year, thus far Domestic Attendance was up 7% for January-April, and 1% for April-July from 2022 numbers.

Data doesn’t differentiate between WDW and Disneyland.

That's why I prefer to wait on TEA, fundamentally I think this discussion is about what's happening at WDW specifically. Disney's latest earnings call mentions that WDW attendance is down but unless I'm mistaken it doesn't break out actual numbers. I think we're in agreement that attendance is down across the board in FL, but beyond that we're all speculating as to *why*. IMO there are probably a few reasons, one of which impacts Disney specifically, but I have no idea how much weighting to assign to those reasons.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

That's why I prefer to wait on TEA, fundamentally I think this discussion is about what's happening at WDW specifically. Disney's latest earnings call mentions that WDW attendance is down but unless I'm mistaken it doesn't break out actual numbers. I think we're in agreement that attendance is down across the board in FL, but beyond that we're all speculating as to *why*. IMO there are probably a few reasons, one of which impacts Disney specifically, but I have no idea how much weighting to assign to those reasons.

this to me is a fair analysis!

 

[HokieRaven5]

That's why I prefer to wait on TEA, fundamentally I think this discussion is about what's happening at WDW specifically. Disney's latest earnings call mentions that WDW attendance is down but unless I'm mistaken it doesn't break out actual numbers. I think we're in agreement that attendance is down across the board in FL, but beyond that we're all speculating as to *why*. IMO there are probably a few reasons, one of which impacts Disney specifically, but I have no idea how much weighting to assign to those reasons.

Yeah it seems like a micro level focus on just what’s going on with Walt Disney World. Which is fine, just not something the company spells out.

Comcast is even more vague about what they share for the Universal parks. They just share total global revenue and operating income.

 

[Smugpugmug]

Comcast is even more vague about what they share for the Universal parks. They just share total global revenue and operating income.

The only thing I saw is that guest spending in Osaka and Hollywood was up but other than that yeah it's pretty vague.

If you look at Orlando wait times, they've been lower than WDW lately. Hagrid's and Velocicoaster around 60-70 minutes which compared to what they can be that isn't bad at all.

 

[Brian Noble]

That's why I prefer to wait on TEA,

Between the annual industry report and Disney’s financial statements, the latter carry more weight. Disney is legally obligated to be truthful in those statements. The TEA report isn’t necessarily wrong mind you, but the quarterly reports are probably correct.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Between the annual industry report and Disney’s financial statements, the latter carry more weight. Disney is legally obligated to be truthful in those statements. The TEA report isn’t necessarily wrong mind you, but the quarterly reports are probably correct.

Yeah they just don’t differentiate between the domestic parks. But it’s not like Genie+ and other cost measures don’t also exist over in Disneyland and so far overall domestic attendance is set to increase YoY post introduction of those things.

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't have any plans to go, though the DVC resorts not named OKW and SSR are part of a (much larger) Interval ongoing search.

This is now off the table, because the search matched to something else that we are keeping. So the earliest we would go back to WDW is probably late Feb of '25.

 

[clarker99]

Just to provide data direct from Disney:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448923000171/dis-20230701.htm

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448923000099/dis-20230401.htm

For Fiscal 2023 Domestic Park attendance is up 6% so far from Fiscal 2022.

Domestic Hotel Occupancy is at 87% for FY 23 vs 82% for FY22.

Disney’s data doesn’t overlap with TEA directly as their Fiscal Year is from 10/1-9-30.

If we go off calendar year, thus far Domestic Attendance is up 7% for January-April, and 1% for April-July from 2022 numbers.

Hotel Occupancy 89% in 2023 for Jan-April vs 84%, and 84% for 2023 in April-July vs 90% in 2022.

So this summer has so far been softer on those staying onsite, but not a meaningful change just yet in YoY attendance.

Data doesn’t differentiate between WDW and Disneyland.

Then we have to ask if raw attendance is best measure for Park success? They are able to pull levers to maintain or grow raw attendance with AP's and bringing back of steeper discounts to drive attendance but with that comes lower margins, less income and also comes with larger crowds and likely a lesser experience while visiting.

On the financial side they are likely going to be down in FY24 vs. FY23 at least in terms of revenue/profit. Do they make it up by trying to add more bodies in the park or just accept YoY reductions and focus on guest satisfaction?

 

[Brian Noble]

"Attendance is down, that's bad!"
No, actually, attendance is up.
"Attendance is up, but they must be discounting, that's bad!"

Y'all are insufferable.

 

[clarker99]

"Attendance is down, that's bad!"
No, actually, attendance is up.
"Attendance is up, but they must be discounting, that's bad!"

Y'all are insufferable.

Yup, constant doom and gloom.

 

[starlite_]

"Attendance is down, that's bad!"
No, actually, attendance is up.
"Attendance is up, but they must be discounting, that's bad!"

Y'all are insufferable.

The goal posts just move all over the place.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

The goal posts just move all over the place.

If people just said “i hope Disney fails”, I could live with that. I start having a problem when people say “this is why Disney is failing” with nothing to back it up.

This is what happens when you let emotions drive, and put logic and reason in the trunk

 

[HokieRaven5]

Then we have to ask if raw attendance is best measure for Park success? They are able to pull levers to maintain or grow raw attendance with AP's and bringing back of steeper discounts to drive attendance but with that comes lower margins, less income and also comes with larger crowds and likely a lesser experience while visiting.

On the financial side they are likely going to be down in FY24 vs. FY23 at least in terms of revenue/profit. Do they make it up by trying to add more bodies in the park or just accept YoY reductions and focus on guest satisfaction?

I think they still keep with the latter and still strive for higher guest spending.

They’ve already brought back the bounce back offers for 2024, odds are pretty solid that “Free Dining” returns at least in the summer if it proves to be the new quiet period for the parks again.

But seriously, just remove the stupid 2pm hopping restriction.

 

[Smugpugmug]

If people just said “i hope Disney fails”, I could live with that. I start having a problem when people say “this is why Disney is failing” with nothing to back it up.

This is what happens when you let emotions drive, and put logic and reason in the trunk

Go on WDWMagic, people are literally saying that lol they also blatantly say they hate the Disney company which hey, appreciate the honesty.

 

[Brian Noble]

Upthread, someone mentioned that they do not split out domestic results by resort, but the 3Q earnings report did that, at least qualitatively:

Lower operating income at our domestic parks and resorts was attributable to a decrease at Walt Disney World Resort, while results at Disneyland Resort were up modestly compared to the prior-year quarter. The decrease at Walt Disney World Resort was primarily due to higher costs and lower volumes. The increase in costs was attributable to inflation and accelerated depreciation related to the planned closure of Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser. Lower volumes were due to decreases in occupied room nights and attendance. At Disneyland Resort, higher attendance and increased guest spending were largely offset by higher costs driven by inflation. Guest spending growth was primarily due to an increase in average ticket prices.

Attendance in Florida was down ("decrease at WDW was primarily due to ... lower volumes"), but in California it was up. Whatever is driving Florida attendance is unlikely to be G+ or other related things, because California is doing the same things. One possible difference: California resumed annual pass sales back in January, while Florida did not resume APs until late April, a full month into the quarter. But "results" is profit, not revenue, and the boat anchor that is the Galactic Starcruiser is not helping there.

 

[Brian Noble]

As an aside, I give them credit for trying the Starcruiser. Most people who went had very good things to say about it--including Len Testa, who is not known as a Disney apologist. It was an expensive bet, and while it failed commercially, they may well have learned something that they could apply e.g. on DCL.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Go on WDWMagic, people are literally saying that lol they also blatantly say they hate the Disney company which hey, appreciate the honesty.

It also begs the question why you’re on a Disney fan page, but hey live yo best life

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

As an aside, I give them credit for trying the Starcruiser. Most people who went had very good things to say about it--including Len Testa, who is not known as a Disney apologist. It was an expensive bet, and while it failed commercially, they may well have learned something that they could apply e.g. on DCL.

maybe they thought because so many people booked cruises that linked up with a stay at the park in 1 vacation they may be able to try the and capitalize on those guests. I just don’t think the game plan was ever to have the star wars hardcore fans keep it afloat forever. Just a thought

 

[starlite_]

If people just said “i hope Disney fails”, I could live with that. I start having a problem when people say “this is why Disney is failing” with nothing to back it up.

This is what happens when you let emotions drive, and put logic and reason in the trunk

Ah, but most of the time they want it to fail because Disney did or said something that upset them. It's ridiculous.

 

[irlandaise]

As an aside, I give them credit for trying the Starcruiser. Most people who went had very good things to say about it--including Len Testa, who is not known as a Disney apologist. It was an expensive bet, and while it failed commercially, they may well have learned something that they could apply e.g. on DCL.

I'm very sad that the Halcyon is going away. We didn't have any plans to visit it ourselves, but it was a bold, creative idea, and from reports I read the people who did the "cruise" had a fantastic time.