Bean Counters and shortsightedness

[Aluminum Falcon]

Right now, today, August 29, 2023. So when are things going to change with the movies? Snow White looks like it will be another cropper. What's on the horizon to change the trajectory? Remember, the February earnings call was the one where Eiger promised us the 2023 movies were game changers. Wrong!

Dis+? The cord-cutting epidemic continues. What will change that?

Parks? What changes to combat this summer's attendance softness?

Right now, today, August 29, 2023. So when are things going to change with the movies? Snow White looks like it will be another cropper. What's on the horizon to change the trajectory? Remember, the February earnings call was the one where Eiger promised us the 2023 movies were game changers. Wrong!

Dis+? The cord-cutting epidemic continues. What will change that?

Parks? What changes to combat this summer's attendance softness?

well, they should just shut the doors then. Disney goes through rough patches a lot when it comes to content, they have been very good at changing course and reinventing themselves. 2000-2004ish had so many clunkers, (baring pixar) and Disney came out of it just fine, looking to history for guidance into the future is what a lot of companies tend to do when tough times hit.

i am watching Disney+ closely, but i think they will be profitable relatively soon. this is just my opinion, but Disney+ has appeal to most families with small children so that alone would help prop it up, original content isn't king like it is with so many other streaming services, and i think that's a pretty big difference maker that sets them apart. We shall see in this case, the market is having a very hard time placing streaming and it is extremely volatile for most companies in the game

Attendance ebbs and flows in the parks, i didn't hear this type of banter last year when the parks were through the roof. Again that is cherry picking a data point

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

There is no direct data. If stuff like that actually made the news the company would go under within a year. You need to go into an executive conference room if you think those conversations don't happen. They 100% do.

The anecdotal data is Disney's desire to try to maximize the cost of the experience by offering peak and off peak pricing.

Just because Bob Iger says guests are happier doesn't mean they are. Where's the data with the full survey to back it up and verify it's a fair survey?

i'm not saying people are satisfied or dissatisfied, i'm saying you are grandstanding with nothing to back up your assertion outside of your opinion, and you're presenting it as fact.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Right now, today, August 29, 2023. So when are things going to change with the movies? Snow White looks like it will be another cropper.

Always rational to project about a film that has yet to have a trailer produced by Disney and all of the reaction on it is so far based on rage farming.

Remember, the February earnings call was the one where Eiger promised us the 2023 movies were game changers. Wrong!

D+ and Disney’s brand recognition has caused problems for their box office. Paramount is starting to feel that too after Top Gun caused an increase in Paramount+ subs from last year.

Dis+? The cord-cutting epidemic continues. What will change that?

DTC is closer to profitability than some have expected. While there’s a downturn in revenue from cord-cutting the linear side is still operating above 20% profits. DMED has maintained profitability throughout its entirety without Parks $$.

Parks? What changes to combat this summer's attendance softness?

Softness for this summer was literally discussed as a possibility during the quarterly earnings report months ago. The company expected it to be the case by their accounts.

 

[wabbott]

Shut the doors? Not hardly. Here's the fix.

1. Make movies that folks want to watch. Disney has done this before.
2. Get rid of non-core assets, namely ABC and ESPN. Today.
3. Pay attention to guest satisfaction at DPEP, and add capacity @ WDW.

 

[fatmanatee]

this is an opinion, not based in anything outside of your personal belief. Show me one shred of actual data that backs up your assertion. Otherwise you are again riffing

I'm not sure this poll is any more or less valuable than an internal poll from Disney but here's one.

 

[DeeCee735]

What dates were those for at UO - I could find a one park per day rate on their 2 for 5 day promo for around what you are quoting- but the park to park was minimum $350

I could be way off the mark here, and I have not been to Universal in 13 years, but aren't there two parks at Universal or did they add more? I am in NO way justifying the cost of Disney parks. We are DVC owners for a long time and I find it disgusting that they just keep raising park pass prices and adding more and more add ons (like no more free FP's). We actually go to the parks much much less than we used to when we visit (also less). But Disney does have 4 parks, so the higher priced tickets (than Universal) doesn't shock me as much.

What does shock me is paying the crazy park pass prices and THEN possibly having to buy Genie Plus or LL to get on a ride. That's nothing short of highway robbery, IMHO.

Dee

 

[Minnie1222]

yes, just demanding that you have staff is outside of reality. That is again just a simple argument with no actual thought behind it, just demanding that an issue be solved because you've waited long enough is not critical thinking

Agreed! I've been demanding, ok more like begging, my handyman to replace my mailbox for several months now. He and his crew are just too busy to take on a simple task although we know him for 20 years. Thankfully it's just an aesthetic replacement so there's no urgency.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I'm not sure this poll is any more or less valuable than an internal poll from Disney but here's one.

i like the thinking, but the article talks about how it polled the biggest disney enthusiasts. That is not indicative of a good sample, the article cherry picked who it polled to make a point, assert a narrative, create drama, ect.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Shut the doors? Not hardly. Here's the fix.

1. Make movies that folks want to watch. Disney has done this before.
2. Get rid of non-core assets, namely ABC and ESPN. Today.
3. Pay attention to guest satisfaction at DPEP, and add capacity @ WDW.

i would disagree with getting rid of ABC ESPN, i think the sports book they are coming out with will help a lot. I just think there's a lot of potential between the 2 if they actually put some real effort into them. The other things are probably always at the top of the priority list for Disney

 

[fatmanatee]

i like the thinking, but the article talks about how it polled the biggest disney enthusiasts. That is not indicative of a good sample, the article cherry picked who it polled to make a point, assert a narrative, create drama, ect.

A poll released by Disney is also an attempt to assert a narrative.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

A poll released by Disney is also an attempt to assert a narrative.

not disagreeing, it is completely biased. I was saying earlier you can either take a statement at face value or not, taking the pieces of it that fit your narrative and calling the rest trash doesn't accomplish anything

 

[Brian Noble]

Meanwhile, DIS' stock price is @ 9 yr lows. Something ain't being done right.

I'm sure others have said this already, but...

The "something" is the fact that (a) linear TV is dying, (b) the only saving grace--sports--is seeing steeply accelerating rights fees and are reaching the breaking point*, and (c) no one has figured out how to make real money on direct-to-consumer. Oh, and until Barbenheimer (and, really, until Barbie) it wasn't clear that anyone was going to go back to the movie theater.

Almost every single question in the quarterly earnings calls by the analysts is around ESPN, D+, and related topics. No one cares about the Parks & Resorts, because they are printing money. P&R accounted for more than two thirds of the company's profit vs. Entertainment/Distribution, at margins of almost 30%, this past quarter.

Think about that for a minute. For every dollar spent at the theme parks, in the resorts, and on the cruise ships, twenty nine cents plus change is profit. And that profit is growing 11% this last quarter YoY, and 20% for the nine months ending in June.

From the point of view of the financials, absolutely nothing is wrong in Parks & Resorts.

--------
*: If you don't think this is true the Pac-12 conference would like a word.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I'm sure others have said this already, but...

The "something" is the fact that (a) linear TV is dying, (b) the only saving grace--sports--is seeing steeply accelerating rights fees and are reaching the breaking point*, and (c) no one has figured out how to make real money on direct-to-consumer. Oh, and until Barbenheimer (and, really, until Barbie) it wasn't clear that anyone was going to go back to the movie theater.

Almost every single question in the quarterly earnings calls by the analysts is around ESPN, D+, and related topics. No one cares about the Parks & Resorts, because they are printing money. P&R accounted for more than two thirds of the company's profit vs. Entertainment/Distribution, at margins of almost 30%, this past quarter.

Think about that for a minute. For every dollar spent at the theme parks, in the resorts, and on the cruise ships, twenty nine cents plus change is profit. And that profit is growing 11% this last quarter YoY, and 20% for the nine months ending in June.

From the point of view of the financials, absolutely nothing is wrong in Parks & Resorts.

--------
*: If you don't think this is true the Pac-12 conference would like a word.

it's like people still see value even at the price disney is asking for, otherwise known as a win win

 

[wabbott]

I'm sure others have said this already, but...

The "something" is the fact that (a) linear TV is dying, (b) the only saving grace--sports--is seeing steeply accelerating rights fees and are reaching the breaking point*, and (c) no one has figured out how to make real money on direct-to-consumer. Oh, and until Barbenheimer (and, really, until Barbie) it wasn't clear that anyone was going to go back to the movie theater.

Almost every single question in the quarterly earnings calls by the analysts is around ESPN, D+, and related topics. No one cares about the Parks & Resorts, because they are printing money. P&R accounted for more than two thirds of the company's profit vs. Entertainment/Distribution, at margins of almost 30%, this past quarter.

Think about that for a minute. For every dollar spent at the theme parks, in the resorts, and on the cruise ships, twenty nine cents plus change is profit. And that profit is growing 11% this last quarter YoY, and 20% for the nine months ending in June.

From the point of view of the financials, absolutely nothing is wrong in Parks & Resorts.

--------
*: If you don't think this is true the Pac-12 conference would like a word.

Except that many park guests feel that 30% margin is because of nickel & dimming us with no increase in product value. Instead we have more layers of planning (reservations, genie, lightning lane, etc) to contend with.

 

[clarker99]

i would disagree with getting rid of ABC ESPN, i think the sports book they are coming out with will help a lot. I just think there's a lot of potential between the 2 if they actually put some real effort into them. The other things are probably always at the top of the priority list for Disney

There seems to be a disconnect bw reality and the narrative pushed by analysts/Disney regarding Linear. It is still the most consistent driver of profit to TWDC, even in decline.

The last 4 quarters:
Parks and Resorts (consumer products removed) Operating income: $6.5b
Vs.
Linear Networks: $7.7b

The last 4 quarters for Parks have been it best 4quarters ever and it still lags networks.

 

[clarker99]

Except that many park guests feel that 30% margin is because of nickel & dimming us with no increase in product value. Instead we have more layers of planning (reservations, genie, lightning lane, etc) to contend with.

You are projecting.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Except that many park guests feel that 30% margin is because of nickel & dimming us with no increase in product value. Instead we have more layers of planning (reservations, genie, lightning lane, etc) to contend with.

That is an opinion, not based on fact or numbers. It is how you personally feel, are there people who agree with you? yes. Is that number much smaller when you actually break down the parks numbers for real? also yes.

Just because you would like something to be a certain way doesn't mean it is

I'm not saying that some of those things don't rub me the wrong way as well, i'm saying that it is not affecting the business the way you're saying it is

 

[wabbott]

That is an opinion, not based on fact or numbers. It is how you personally feel, are there people who agree with you? yes. Is that number much smaller when you actually break down the parks numbers for real? also yes.

Just because you would like something to be a certain way doesn't mean it is

I'm not saying that some of those things don't rub me the wrong way as well, i'm saying that it is not affecting the business the way you're saying it is

I suggest lots of guests agree. Do you think the softness in park attendance this summer is just because its hot? What's your explanation?

 

[wabbott]

You are projecting.

I don't agree with you.

 

[HokieRaven5]

I suggest lots of guests agree. Do you think the softness in park attendance this summer is just because it’s hot? What's your explanation?

That softness this summer is not exclusive to Disney. Cedar Fair, Six Flags, Universal, Sea World, etc. have all experienced a softening of crowds.