Bad news for Disney and BLT sales?

[tvwalsh]

I wonder whether the 10+ % drop in the value of Disney stock just today as well as the serious drop in future bookings at the parks will cause anyone other than me to reconsider DVC purchases. I WAS considering adding on at BLT but am poorer now since I own DIS stick.

 

[WaltEeyoreWorld]

I wonder whether the 10+ % drop in the value of Disney stock just today as well as the serious drop in future bookings at the parks will cause anyone other than me to reconsider DVC purchases. I WAS considering adding on at BLT but am poorer now since I own DIS stick.

Ended up down only 6% which given the poor earnings, was not as large a drop as I expected to see. I guess I would question who else in the vacation and hospitality business you would put your money with if not Disney. If I were to be in the market, I think Disney is one of the safest at this point particularly at the world. But we all are seeing retirement dreams fade fast with an 8,500 dow so maybe discretionary spending is not the best idea at the moment. I guess the mattress is going to become more lumpy as we all stop spending and stop trusting banks to save our money.

 

[DisDaydreamer]

Thankfully, I took all my 401k out of stocks last September. And took DW's interest in Disney out about a month ago... Really don't like not being a stockholder of Disney, but just felt things weren't going to get better.

I don't think the ability of people to purchase is related to Disney, but rather the overall drop in stocks and much more so with the the drop in real property values. So many people wanting to buy anywhere where expecting their current property holding values to grow greatly.

This is not a Disney problem, but a real estate problem. That said, DVC seems to be doing ok.

 

[mearshon]

This is actually a great time to buy Disney stock if you want to buy low and sell high. I believe that this is a temporary drop due to outside forces. I am sure that the stock will climb in the coming years.

 

[jlewisinsyr]

Thankfully, I took all my 401k out of stocks last September. And took DW's interest in Disney out about a month ago... Really don't like not being a stockholder of Disney, but just felt things weren't going to get better.

Just so you know, in the past 50 years, only a handful of days made up 60% of the growth in the market. Being reactionary, especially with a long term investment like a 401k is not a very good move. Market timing rarely works in your favor unless you are the best of the best in terms of investing.

Now if you were getting close to retirement I could understand the gradual shift from stocks to bonds, but even that wouldn't be a rush, it should happen systematically over time.

In my opinion, the market is overly reactionary right now. None of what is being seen in earning reports should be a shock, and the market is underpriced currently. Now is the time to buy (and we have), as we are securing low prices.

Everything is cyclical.

 

[DisDaydreamer]

Just so you know, in the past 50 years, only a handful of days made up 60% of the growth in the market. Being reactionary, especially with a long term investment like a 401k is not a very good move. Market timing rarely works in your favor unless you are the best of the best in terms of investing.

Now if you were getting close to retirement I could understand the gradual shift from stocks to bonds, but even that wouldn't be a rush, it should happen systematically over time.

In my opinion, the market is overly reactionary right now. None of what is being seen in earning reports should be a shock, and the market is underpriced currently. Now is the time to buy (and we have), as we are securing low prices.

Everything is cyclical.

Agreed... That being said, I made 20% in my 401 last year and was very lucky to get out when I did. Getting out of the market completely (DWs investments) about 5 weeks ago has also been the right decision.

I have been wrong much of the time throughout my life in regards to our market investments, but last year I nailed it. I am liquid right now and am waiting for the right time to get back in. That won't be this year. Now is almost the time to buy... the market will still drop for a while to come. IMHO

 

[jlewisinsyr]

I have been wrong much of the time throughout my life in regards to our market investments, but last year I nailed it. I am liquid right now and am waiting for the right time to get back in. That won't be this year. Now is almost the time to buy... the market will still drop for a while to come. IMHO

When you think the time is right, you would have already missed at least 1/2 of the best gains.

And selling 5 weeks ago was basically locking in your losses. Up until the point you sold, your losses were unrealized.

I made 35% and 29% the last two years respectively. This year I'm down 37%. Sure, it hurts seeing negative numbers in the tens of thousands of dollars, but I also realize it will rebound and I won't miss the right time because I'll already be there.

 

[Muushka]

When you think the time is right, you would have already missed at least 1/2 of the best gains.

And selling 5 weeks ago was basically locking in your losses. Up until the point you sold, your losses were unrealized.

I made 35% and 29% the last two years respectively. This year I'm down 37%. Sure, it hurts seeing negative numbers in the tens of thousands of dollars, but I also realize it will rebound and I won't miss the right time because I'll already be there.

Thank you for saying all of this. My husband controls the investments and agrees with you. I need to hear it from others too!

 

[DisDaydreamer]

When you think the time is right, you would have already missed at least 1/2 of the best gains.

And selling 5 weeks ago was basically locking in your losses. Up until the point you sold, your losses were unrealized.

I made 35% and 29% the last two years respectively. This year I'm down 37%. Sure, it hurts seeing negative numbers in the tens of thousands of dollars, but I also realize it will rebound and I won't miss the right time because I'll already be there.

I you.

I didn't state my year before figure which was 29% gain. I had already sold 90% of our retirement funds last year... so the selling of the small part of our funds 5 weeks ago was just the tweeking or finalizing of it all.

I sold my DWs remaining stocks 5 weeks ago and am really thankfull. I have seen the stocks drop most every day. So I am thankful. It is funny... locking in your losses.. I'm not sure what that is about. If you can get out at one price and get in at a better price... that is not locking in your losses....

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Just so you know, in the past 50 years, only a handful of days made up 60% of the growth in the market. Being reactionary, especially with a long term investment like a 401k is not a very good move. Market timing rarely works in your favor unless you are the best of the best in terms of investing.

Now if you were getting close to retirement I could understand the gradual shift from stocks to bonds, but even that wouldn't be a rush, it should happen systematically over time.

In my opinion, the market is overly reactionary right now. None of what is being seen in earning reports should be a shock, and the market is underpriced currently. Now is the time to buy (and we have), as we are securing low prices.

Everything is cyclical.

Optimism is very therapeutic, but not always very rational. This market is different. It will take many, many, years for this economy to recoup the trillions, yes I said trillions of dollars that have been lost. If you need this money within the next 10 years, invest very conservatively,don't plan on seeing your losses recovered. I too, like Rob, have been liquid, for over a year, and have lost nothing. Right now, CD's are out performing the market....there is such a thing as cutting your losses.

 

[jlewisinsyr]

If you sell at a lower point in the market, hold the money (anywhere) and then buy when its recovering, by the time you realized its recovering, you'd already lost most of the gain.

By selling at a lower point in the market, you locked in your losses, you'll never recoup the money you could have had if you sold at a higher point.

This market is really not that much different than other major downturns. Its a new cause but the effects are the same.

I ask a question of all of you, who made out the best in the market crash of 29?

One other one, when did the crash happen in comparison to the fundamental issues underlining it?

Unless you have an immediate (less then a year) need for money, there is zero reason to liquidate. My guess, based on pure fundamentals, is you will see the DOW market indicator hit 10,000 by end of year and continue on an overall upward trend to about 12,000 through end of next year.

The market was overpriced at 14,000, the fundamentals couldn't support it. Realistically, it probably should have been closer to 12,000. Now with some of the fundamentals at risk, market should be closer to the 9,000 range (which we are at). With the influx of governmental actions, the fundamentals will improve, thus my reasoning to 10,000 by year end.

There are going to be days where you see 400 - 900 point gains, those are the days you need to be in the market if you want to see your assets truly appreciate.

 

[Brian Noble]

This market is different.

Maybe yes. Maybe no. Only the Magic 8-ball knows for sure.

I don't need anything in my investment accounts for 25 years, so I just keep buying more every month, and file the statements away unopened. In another 10 years or so, I'll worry about dollar-cost averaging out of equities into more stable investments, again a little at a time.

I'm a full-blown Fool.

 

[gkrykewy]

Optimism is very therapeutic, but not always very rational. This market is different. It will take many, many, years for this economy to recoup the trillions, yes I said trillions of dollars that have been lost. If you need this money within the next 10 years, invest very conservatively,don't plan on seeing your losses recovered.

I don't agree with any of this. Yes, trillions of dollars of wealth have been lost. But unless you think trillions more are about to be lost (DOW 6,000??), it doesn't make sense to hold out now, and it certainly doesn't make sense to sell now.

 

[Chuck S]

Remember that with stocks, unless you were planning to sell them in the immediate future anyway, your loss is "on paper." Until you sell and actually realize the profit or loss, you are in reality no poorer or richer than yesterday.

 

[chalee94]

Optimism is very therapeutic, but not always very rational.

or sometimes optimism is based on a thorough knowledge of historical cycles and trends, instead of reacting in a momentary panic (which is an instinctive response, and not at all "rational").

 

[nunzia]

I've actually increased my stock purchases (great deals out there) but also put some extra toward bonds. Hopefully it will all turn around at some point..(not anytime soon, obviously)

 

[DisDaydreamer]

The timing to make decisions is different for everyone.... I am not sure why anyone would be optimistic that the markets are not going down even more. It wasn't that long ago that the DJIA at 11,000 and my wife mentioned that she heard the bottom would be 8500... I thought NO WAY. I am the optimist, but I am also a realist. Though my holdings are no longer on paper and I have "locked in" my losses... I am sure I will have the opportunity to re-invest my remaining money before I have missed the boat. There is very much room to make up... enough to see a trend long before what I have not lost is lost.

My decisions were never a matter of panic. And sometimes optimism can be as costly as panic. It is just so hard to say... I don't think anyone with thorough knowledge at this point is optimistic. Except, maybe in the sense that there is or will be great buys to come. I for one am sitting back watching my meager money market make 3% while I watch and listen for what is best to buy at this time and in the near future.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

or sometimes optimism is based on a thorough knowledge of historical cycles and trends, instead of reacting in a momentary panic (which is an instinctive response, and not at all "rational").

My actions, again over a year ago, were never out of panic. Foresight, maybe. My husband is retiring in 3 years.....we do not have time to "wait" for the market to come back. Our position has always been preservation of capital. That position has payed off in our current turbulent times, as well as during the tech bubble, as well as the crash of '87.

Many investors were misled during the tech bubble crash...the 'ole buy and hold mentality, where people just kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting for the market to come back. All they did was wait till their money was all gone. Nope, I learned from that.

 

[DisDaydreamer]

My actions, again over a year ago, were never out of panic. Foresight, maybe. My husband is retiring in 3 years.....we do not have time to "wait" for the market to come back. Our position has always been preservation of capital. That position has payed off in our current turbulent times, as well as during the tech bubble, as well as the crash of '87.

Many investors were misled during the tech bubble crash...the 'ole buy and hold mentality, where people just kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting for the market to come back. All they did was wait till their money was all gone. Nope, I learned from that.

Indeed... I waited during the tech bubble (2001) for things to turn around and lost just about everything (in retirement acct.). Had to start over.... so, I am not so... wait and see, don't panic, everything is going to be ok... and so on.. Oh, and you won't really have losses unless you sell... Bologna!

Too much hope and optimistic forecasting got me in trouble. I won't be retiring as soon as I thought, but I learned my lesson and I am better off for the lesson. Not panic. Just attentive. Doesn't matter what your papers say... all that matters is when you get out and when you get in. For many it is still time to get out... and watch and wait for the time to get back in.

EDIT: Ok... here is my reason for not listening anymore to the "knowledgeable"... I had 10,000 shares of WorldCom. The Knowlegeable told me time and again.... They will get through this and merge with another. Well... I can't explain to you how much of my life was taken when they were wrong... and WC went bankrupt. I don't listen to them any more. They don't know any more than the weatherman.

 

["Got Disney"]

I've actually increased my stock purchases (great deals out there) but also put some extra toward bonds. Hopefully it will all turn around at some point..(not anytime soon, obviously)

We have also decided to invest more in bonds....we have a very diverse portfolio and we still have a good 15 years for it to sit. We lost a lot of money in 1987 and than again in 2001 and of course this time also....cant seem ta win...we did not even look at our looses this time we just continued on as if nothing happened...we cut our looses in 2001 however and in 1987.....

This time we have decided to add less and sit back and watch....being 51 and 53 we dont want to loose to much more. Although we don't have the percentage of investments we had when we were younger..that is why we have a diverse portfolio.

Sure wish I invested in McDonalds way back when when i was in 9th grade and had to pick a stock to follow for two months ...MCDonalds just kept going up and up and up....but i was 13 what did I know