Bad news: 2005 Hurricane Predictions are out.

[civileng68]

The news is not looking good this year for the Hurricane Season. We thought last year was busy, this year is expected to be worse than last year.


http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=2867&z=3&p=

 

[ryan840]

It's not April 1st yet... (anywhere in the US that is)

ETA- The article mentioned that on April 1st it was modified...

 

[hugsquared]

I had the same thought...no way "April 1st" could have hit New Orleans already. In any light...it doesn't look any worse to me than any other year and again, its a prediction. And a 50% chance of one hitting Florida or the Southeast Well duh!!!

 

[civileng68]

yeah actually you're right. However, lets not get too comfortable by thinking that since there may be less than last year that the season may not be that bad. It's still expected to be above average.

The average from 1944-1996 was 10 named storms.

Also, the actual news report on another channel said that the likelihood of a landfall in Florida was going to be higher than last season due to warmer waters and an expected lack of steering wind sheers at high altitudes from West to East.

 

[jpeltier]

Yikes!!! I hate hurricane season.I live in south Louisiana and every year we hear: this could be our year or we're overdue for the BIG ONE.Last year we lucked out when Ivan turned at the very last minute.Gosh, my heart goes out to all those who weathered the hurricanes last year. They must be on pins and needles.

 

[Aidensmom]

Last week the Tampa Tribune reported that yes, it was going to be an above average year, but there were actually less SEVERE storms predicted. The likelihood of them hitting FL is about the same as any year. As far as WDW, if it is not a severe storm, all you are going to see is some rain. Hurricanes lose some of their forcefulness once they make landfall. A category 4 at landfall will be a 3 or 2, or even 1 by the time it makes it mid-state, depending on other weather conditions. A category 1 at landfall would be nothing more than a tropical storm by the time it made it to WDW. There is a TREMENDOUS difference between a category 1 and category 3, 4, or 5. Last year was a freak year. Orlando is not a usual hurricane victim. I have lived in Tampa over 20 years, and never had near the experience we had last year. People who live on the coast are more prepared for hurricanes because they are more likely to be affected by them. People inland aren't because, well, we have the attitude that we are immune from hurricanes because we are not on the beach. We had (don't anymore) that attitude because it really is unusual for that to happen. The destruction was more pronounced because it was unusual and unexpected. If all the hurricanes hit Miami and the keys last year, no one would be talking about it....

 

[FLMOMWITH3GIRLS]

I dont even want to know we had more then our fair share of hurricanes last year

 

[nataliesdaddy]

The news is not looking good this year for the Hurricane Season. We thought last year was busy, this year is expected to be worse than last year.


http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=2867&z=3&p=

fortunately for the world weathermen are even less accurate than economists.

 

[goofyernmost]

fortunately for the world weathermen are even less accurate than economists.

My thoughts exactly! They don't know where they are going to hit until mere hours before they hit and only after they have formed. It is a huge leap to say that it is going to be better or worse before the season begins. In the words of Einstien or Alfred E. Newman (I forget which) "it's a crock, dude!"

 

[civileng68]

fortunately for the world weathermen are even less accurate than economists.

Actually I totally agree with you as with Hurricane Charlie, the National Hurricane Center said it was going to hit Tampa, even though it had already turned and was 15 minutes from landfall of the Charlotte Harbor. The local news however, was saying it was going to hit down here while the National Center was still saying Tampa.

Also though, if you see last year's predictions, they were exactly right, even down to the number of named storms and Severe Hurricanes.

 

[Laugh O. Grams]

The news is not looking good this year for the Hurricane Season. We thought last year was busy, this year is expected to be worse than last year.

Heard this as well from my Dad who lives in WPB, and the company that I work for that's headquartered in FL. They have gone out and bought a huge diesel generator that will run power for an entire 20,000 square foot manufacturing plant. I can definitely see why Floridians would be watching the weather and listening to the NWS intently this year. After so many years of really nothing in the way of storms, last year was a real wake up call. For those of you who don't live in FL or LA, I wouldn't belittle or make light of any Floridians worries anymore!

 

[palmetto]

I am gonna show what a nerd I am here, but it's not worse than last year. It's slightly better, if one can call anticipating 13 named storms better. The 2004 prediction was 14 named, 8 hurricanes, 3 severe, and what we actually got was 15 named, 9 hurricanes, 6 severe.

Here's hoping they all perform ballet out in the Atlantic and fail to hit land.

 

[Evil Queen]

I keep hearing the Bermuda High is still out there, which means a dryer "rainy" season for the South east coast of Florida (Palm BEach County, Broward, Martin, St. Lucie), we are needing rain badly down here, but the high also means a better chance any hurricanes will be steered this way.

We are going to WDW in late September. We will shutter up our house before our trip. If one heads this way and we are in the World, we will stay there, I won;t come back to ride one out. If one is heading towards WDW we will probably stay there or head to Tenn.

 

[civileng68]

I keep hearing the Bermuda High is still out there, which means a dryer "rainy" season for the South east coast of Florida (Palm BEach County, Broward, Martin, St. Lucie), we are needing rain badly down here, but the high also means a better chance any hurricanes will be steered this way.

We are going to WDW in late September. We will shutter up our house before our trip. If one heads this way and we are in the World, we will stay there, I won;t come back to ride one out. If one is heading towards WDW we will probably stay there or head to Tenn.

True!

I agree. In fact we have annual passes so this season if we have to evacuate, we're just going to leave and go to Disney during the evacuation. Granted we realize they can come through there but it's nothing compared to being on the coast and Disney would only close the day of the storm, IF it was big enough AND if it was going to hit there.

 

[crazymomof4]

The news is not looking good this year for the Hurricane Season. We thought last year was busy, this year is expected to be worse than last year.


http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=2867&z=3&p=

Well, if their longterm predictions are as accurate as their "5 Day Forecasts" then we should be OK! (We have a WDW trip planned for mid Sept)
It was supposed to pour all day today, flood warnings and everything! Well, the only thing we were flooded with was SUNSHINE....all day!

When I want to know the weather, I look out my window! I never make plans based on weather forecasts!

 

[Luv2Roam]

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/hur2005.htm

 

[weregoingtodw]

True!

I agree. In fact we have annual passes so this season if we have to evacuate, we're just going to leave and go to Disney during the evacuation.

That's actually some pretty smart thinking! It's not like they would close down the hotels... and probably better shelter than you'd find elsewhere!

 

[Disney Gator]

I remember a prediction of a bad hurricane season for every year from about 1998 to present...if you make the same prediction every year, you're bound to get it right eventually.

Havng grown up in Florida, I can see this for what it is...a lot of chicken little, "the sky is falling" stuff.