Availability

[CarolMN]

Y'all have given me a lot to ponder. My problem is I never know 7-11 months out when we can travel, so we are always in that 3-4 month window. We stay away from super crowded times as well. So should I just choose the cheapest DVC to own and roll the dice each trip and be happy with SSR/OKW, or still buy where we want to stay?

Given your 3-4 month lead time, I would not advise you to buy DVC. IMO, you would end up frustrated more often than not.

Keep in mind that "super crowded times" for the parks do not match up very well with the times DVC is hard to get at 7 months or less prior to arrival. For example, October - December, is much more difficult to get at 7 months than is June - August.

Again, IMO, you would be better off trying for cash discounts/promotions directly from Disney or renting from other DVC members.

 

[TXbassmaster]

Thanks everyone for the advice. Still not sure what I'm going to do. Maybe if a small contract comes up that interests us we may start with that and ease into as time goes.

 

[Dean]

Y'all have given me a lot to ponder. My problem is I never know 7-11 months out when we can travel, so we are always in that 3-4 month window. We stay away from super crowded times as well. So should I just choose the cheapest DVC to own and roll the dice each trip and be happy with SSR/OKW, or still buy where we want to stay?

While there are a few members in this situation who already own and make it work, there are NO instances where buying to routinely reserve at 3-4 months out is reasonable. IMO, anything under 7 months as a routine makes DVC too much of a risk and liability to justify owning.

 

[crisi]

I agree, if you can only plan 3-4 months out, you are likely to not be happy - unless you go for short, flexible trips.

There will be times where stringing together more than three days at a time in the same room isn't possible.

Also, before you plan on any points with short notice bookings, make sure you understand banking rules - points are use em or lose them - you can bank only one year forward, but you must do it MONTHS in advance of when the points expire.

 

[HarvardAce]

My family is looking to buy into DVC via the resale market. We've spoiled ourselves and have been staying at monorail resorts the last few years, and with a DS3 and a DD on the way in a few months, being on the monorail and close to the Magic Kingdom is a big benefit.

We really love the idea of staying at BLT most often, given the prime location and much better cost compared to GF. However, there aren't nearly as many contracts available for resale at BLT and we haven't found any that meet our needs. Conversely, we have found a few at AK that we would be interested in, and they are also about $20pp cheaper.

We are planners, so we would be able to take advantage of the 11 month window if we had it. We also would be ok with staying at AK (and definitely want to from time to time, but more as a split stay), but obviously prefer BLT. We probably wouldn't be as thrilled with OKW or SSR, because we don't want to be spending a good portion of our vacation traveling from resort to park and really enjoy the ability to quickly come back to the room for a nap or a swim in the pool.

Our most frequent vacation will likely be in late August -- we were there last August for 10 days and were able to deal with the heat and loved the lack of crowds. What does the BLT availability typically look like in late August at the 7 month window? Is it something we would have trouble with (likely 1 BR, Standard or Lake view)? I have read that park crowds and DVC availability aren't necessarily linked, so a dead time at the parks may actually be a harder time to get a reservation at a DVC. What about late January (away from the marathon)? That would likely be the other time we look to vacation, at least initially before taking the kids out of school would be a problem.

 

[mrsgoose8]

Just my personal experience, we have a 5& 2.5 yr old and are thinking of more kids. I would love BLT but we didn't buy there and I don't have enough points to stay there anyway. If you really want to stay there, I'd buy there and pay the higher price to guarantee the standard rooms being available. And be sure to buy enough points that if standard or lake view isn't available, you could stay in Theme park view.

That being said, we decided we'd rather go more often and own less points so even though the monorail resorts would be nice, we did buy at AKV & love it

 

[nalajms]

Your chances in late Aug are good at getting something at 7m. If you're flexible on the days and willing to do split stays, that's even better. Not sure about Jan, but neither are considered busy times for DVC. The breakeven for DVC is 6+years, think about what your vacation schedule will be then or 10+years. If you run into busy DVC times, it will be harder to book nearpark resorts at 7m.

The benefit of AKV are the value rooms. But if you are hoping for BLT and are not planning on value rooms, I don't think it's worth buying there. I would take the advice of others, buy at SSR then decide whether it's worth it to buy at BLT.

Edited to add: We were shopping for a BLT resale, prior to staying there, when VGF came out. I'm very glad we bought a VGF because I did not like BLT. I'll tolerate it for the location, but not our preference. Make sure you like it before you buy it.

 

[MoreTravels]

My family is looking to buy into DVC via the resale market. We've spoiled ourselves and have been staying at monorail resorts the last few years, and with a DS3 and a DD on the way in a few months, being on the monorail and close to the Magic Kingdom is a big benefit.

We really love the idea of staying at BLT most often, given the prime location and much better cost compared to GF. However, there aren't nearly as many contracts available for resale at BLT and we haven't found any that meet our needs. Conversely, we have found a few at AK that we would be interested in, and they are also about $20pp cheaper.

We are planners, so we would be able to take advantage of the 11 month window if we had it. We also would be ok with staying at AK (and definitely want to from time to time, but more as a split stay), but obviously prefer BLT. We probably wouldn't be as thrilled with OKW or SSR, because we don't want to be spending a good portion of our vacation traveling from resort to park and really enjoy the ability to quickly come back to the room for a nap or a swim in the pool.

Our most frequent vacation will likely be in late August -- we were there last August for 10 days and were able to deal with the heat and loved the lack of crowds. What does the BLT availability typically look like in late August at the 7 month window? Is it something we would have trouble with (likely 1 BR, Standard or Lake view)? I have read that park crowds and DVC availability aren't necessarily linked, so a dead time at the parks may actually be a harder time to get a reservation at a DVC. What about late January (away from the marathon)? That would likely be the other time we look to vacation, at least initially before taking the kids out of school would be a problem.

There is a reason why AKV and BLT price difference is $20. It's supply and demand. Have you stayed at AKV? It's fun but isolated. The bus is like 30 minutes to MK... so your young children may not like it, especially at night when you are exhausted from the parks.

BLT on the other hand, is within walking distance of MK. No bus or even monorail required... just walk, and you are home.

I can see for Christmas (7 month window just opened this week) is pretty full for BLT. It's wide open at many other places. Once again, it's supply and demand, so it's $20 pp more.

 

[skier_pete]

Y'all have given me a lot to ponder. My problem is I never know 7-11 months out when we can travel, so we are always in that 3-4 month window. We stay away from super crowded times as well. So should I just choose the cheapest DVC to own and roll the dice each trip and be happy with SSR/OKW, or still buy where we want to stay?

That is all up to you. Maybe DVC is not for you. I always felt DVC was more for the people who planned well in advance. But then again slow DVC times are just that "slow". As you can see, much of Sept is still free.

I would not go the renting route. But that is just me.

While there are a few members in this situation who already own and make it work, there are NO instances where buying to routinely reserve at 3-4 months out is reasonable. IMO, anything under 7 months as a routine makes DVC too much of a risk and liability to justify owning.

Being new to DVC I am no expert - but I concur that if you are frequently waiting until 3-4 months out, you do NOT want to be tied to DVC points you have to use.

Your comment of "usually slow times of year" raises a red flag too. Slow times of year for WDW do not match up with slow times of year for DVC. In fact, DVC busiest time of year seems to be Oct/Nov/Dec, which are considered some of the slowest weeks at WDW.

As others have said, you are much, much better off renting points. In fact, if you are doing things that short term, you can frequently rent "distressed" points, meaning points that are going to expire near term, and stay at DVC properties for very low cost. Again, you will be limited by availability, but if you have to wait until last minute anyways, you are still better off this way.

 

[HarvardAce]

There is a reason why AKV and BLT price difference is $20. It's supply and demand. Have you stayed at AKV? It's fun but isolated. The bus is like 30 minutes to MK... so your young children may not like it, especially at night when you are exhausted from the parks.

BLT on the other hand, is within walking distance of MK. No bus or even monorail required... just walk, and you are home.

I can see for Christmas (7 month window just opened this week) is pretty full for BLT. It's wide open at many other places. Once again, it's supply and demand, so it's $20 pp more.

We've never stayed at AKL -- in the last few years it has been a monorail resort or one time, with a larger group, at Coronado Springs which we felt was a good mesh of location vs. cost at the time. While I could do a full week at any place not either on the monorail or between DHS and Epcot, I would likely be disappointed and feel that we were "wasting" a good portion of our vacation on travel to and from the parks. In that regard, AKL and its associated perks (we really enjoyed the ambiance and theme of the AKL and the idea of a Savannah view is awesome) would be tolerable, but I don't see any plus to being "stuck" with SSR or OKW, so those are out for us.

We stayed at the Contemporary when we were there in August and loved the convenience of walking to the MK on the way (and then taking the monorail one stop on the way back when we were all tired), so BLT would be our ideal place to stay. We love the convenience of being able to stop back at the room for an hour or two mid-day, which works much better when it's a 10-minute round trip as opposed to a half hour each way. Animal Kingdom is usually just a half day, maybe two for a 10-day trip, so the location rarely works in our favor.

Our biggest concern is less the money difference and more the availability of a contract that fits our needs. I've seen a few for AKL that are a nice combination of use year, price, number of points, and points available, while there hasn't been anything at BLT that has interested us, as it appears that all of the contracts available are either too big or too small.

One possibility would be to purchase multiple smaller contracts, but then we likely need to match up UY and run the risk of Disney ROFR one and not the other and ending up in an odd situation.

 

[crisi]

One thing to keep in mind is that kids who are little and love the MK now are not going to be little for the term of your contract - and the ability to walk to the MK loses some of its magic when your kids would rather be at Universal and you are renting a car for a Universal trip. In other words - think long term. If BLT speaks to you - and you can afford the premium not only in buy in cost, but in points (its a lot more expensive to stay at BLT) then buy there. But buying at BLT because its convenient for the stroller and getting back for a nap is really short term thinking.

 

[Pumbas]

What type of room would you want? Here is a quick chart I made that shows current Studio availability in Sept

Where did you find this chart?

 

[TXbassmaster]

I'm pretty sure she made it, using the data on the DVC member site.

 

[skier_pete]

I'm pretty sure she made it, using the data on the DVC member site.

Quite honestly an impressive feat, since you can only look up one location at a time (though they sometimes give you a second alternative) and only for a window of 14 days at a time. It is also something that would be out of date almost immediately, so kudos to her for taking the time to do it.

 

[HarvardAce]

One thing to keep in mind is that kids who are little and love the MK now are not going to be little for the term of your contract - and the ability to walk to the MK loses some of its magic when your kids would rather be at Universal and you are renting a car for a Universal trip. In other words - think long term. If BLT speaks to you - and you can afford the premium not only in buy in cost, but in points (its a lot more expensive to stay at BLT) then buy there. But buying at BLT because its convenient for the stroller and getting back for a nap is really short term thinking.

Understood -- although the nap is not for the kids! Aside from our most recent trip a few weeks ago, we haven't been on a trip for less than 8 or 9 days. That way we can take things nice and slow and actually relax during our vacation, and a big part of that is decompressing back at our room/pool for a few hours around lunch time, especially if we continue to go in August.

I'm sure our kids may end up with different tastes, but my wife and I are die-hard Disney fans. While it would be neat to do Universal for a day or two sometime in the future to see Harry Potter and some of the other stuff there, Disney is definitely where we plan to vacation once a year.

Bottom line is that we just put an offer in on some BLT points this morning, as that is where we really want to stay (at least until the Poly opens up). We'll see how the process goes, but we're already looking forward to planning our trip next August.

 

[HarvardAce]

I did a quick search on the boards here and found a bunch of specific questions and answers on availability, but has anyone ever done a "general" list of what availability looks like for DVC properties? I'm thinking of something like the above table but instead of by day, more by season/week/event, that maybe ranked general availability for that period/resort combination in terms of 11 months, 7-11 months, 7 months, < 7 months. It would be really helpful to see, for example, that BLT is 7-11 months during July (except for around July 4 which is 11 months), August is 7 months, etc.

I know availability changes on a daily basis as people change reservations and move things around, but I imagine that there are general trends at each resorts for specific times of the year (like the Epcot resorts being very limited during the F&W Festival).

 

[disneynutz]

I did a quick search on the boards here and found a bunch of specific questions and answers on availability, but has anyone ever done a "general" list of what availability looks like for DVC properties? I'm thinking of something like the above table but instead of by day, more by season/week/event, that maybe ranked general availability for that period/resort combination in terms of 11 months, 7-11 months, 7 months, < 7 months. It would be really helpful to see, for example, that BLT is 7-11 months during July (except for around July 4 which is 11 months), August is 7 months, etc.

I know availability changes on a daily basis as people change reservations and move things around, but I imagine that there are general trends at each resorts for specific times of the year (like the Epcot resorts being very limited during the F&W Festival).

I don't think that there has been anything published, owners learn from success and failures and reading posts here on the DIS. There are certain patterns but who knows where people will book or what their reasons are.

As I have posted before, you can either play the booking/wishing game or make your life simpler and buy where you love to stay, booking at 11 months.

For us waitlists never seemed to work, I got tired calling everyday checking availability and I didn't want to walk our reservations. Online access has made things better but it's still a game of chance with variable odds.

We go to WDW to be happy, not to get stuck with a room that we paid thousands for but don't really care for.

Bill

 

[supersnoop]

The problem with tracking something like this is that you need to define "availability." Do you track it by room size, plus view, or just resort? Are you looking for a single night, or 7 consecutive nights, or so,etching in between? After you define your parameters, you can start gathering data. It will probably take three years to get a good sample. Having grad students at your disposal would help.

Of course, then Disney can always move the cheese, so to speak. The marathons, flower & garden. And Food & Wine festivals affect availability. If Disney moves, changes, or adds events, your projections would be worthless due to shifting populations.

And then, it's down to the standard generalizations again. The first week of December, Easter weekend, and the above mentioned events won't have availability, at least not at preferred resorts, at seven months.

Don't get me wrong; it sounds like a fun project that could potentially help a lot of people. I'm just afraid it can become worthless, or just tell us what we already know.

 

[skier_pete]

The problem with tracking something like this is that you need to define "availability." Do you track it by room size, plus view, or just resort? Are you looking for a single night, or 7 consecutive nights, or so,etching in between? After you define your parameters, you can start gathering data. It will probably take three years to get a good sample. Having grad students at your disposal would help.

Don't get me wrong; it sounds like a fun project that could potentially help a lot of people. I'm just afraid it can become worthless, or just tell us what we already know.

I think one way to do it that would give you a consistent data set would be to check each resort for certain room types (maybe studio and 2-bedroom) right at the 7-month mark later in the day. this could be used to determine which locations are most likely to be gone on that first day of 7 months and which will last a little while.

Realistically though, this should be an individual game to play. If you like going mid-October, then for a few years you should check that mid-October availability and make your own stats.

For myself, part of our motivation for buying into DVC is that we have been traveling and taking advantage of free dining for the last 7 years, but with our DD reaching middle school age, we don't feel we can take her out for that time of year. So, instead that leaves us if we wish to go at reasonably uncrowded times with going either the end of August after southern schools return to school or Presidents week in February (I wont' fight the Easter crowds.)

So, I've already started checking for August availability. At this point, we are only 3 months from late August, but there is much more availability still there than with anything in October, November or December is showing.

Likewise, once we hit the "7-month" mark for February 2015, I am going to start scanning the site to see what books up first. (even though we are not planning a Feb 2015 trip.) I've also been watching Christmas availability, which is starting to progress through at the 7-month mark right now. Not that I ever plan on going at Christmas, but it's good to know.

Even just watching for the 5 days that I have, I feel like the trends are coming out. It's pretty clear getting into AKV, SSR, and OKW are the easiest, and it seems like VGF, BCV and WLV are the hardest, with BWV and BLT falling somewhere in the middle.

WLV is the only one that surprises me, I suppose this is because its relatively small size, but I would've thought it's location would make it far less than prime. I suppose it has its strong supporters though, and it is pretty handy to MK while being fairly short for points.

 

[nalajms]

Presidents week in February (I wont' fight the Easter crowds.)

FYI - I was a bit late on booking 2015. I want to say it was 9 or 10m mark. Sat for that weekend was gone for VGF standard studios. I was able to get Sun - Tues and waitlisted Sat. A few weeks later I read on this board that it's going to be crowded that week because of Mardi Gras and a marathon or some other special event. So there are a lot of factors in play.