August 2021 - will I be going ?

Plague

Frozen II Fan
Joined
Jun 14, 2020
No they won't. They'll have been offered their first dose. Twelve weeks after that is October.
Good point.
And given that at present it takes 2-3 weeks to get protection from the first jab, you can likely add a few more weeks onto the second.

Also a lot of the decisions will be political. Countries heavily dependent on tourism (eg. Spain) will likely open up earlier than those that aren't (eg. USA?).
Making stock market investments after a few beers looks safer than predicting this year's holidays at this point :)
 

Ruttangel

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
NoOTE]


No they won't. They'll have been offered their first dose. Twelve weeks after that is October.

Vaccination agreements depend on if a) other countries accept UK not administering vaccines as recommended by the manufacturers (but we'll have more info on how Pfizer will pan out then) and b) they work out what to do about children.
Well, my point was that they have brought the deadline forward which can only be a good thing.
If they say by 31st July then logistically they will be offering people dates way before that.
The first dose is still 80+% effective.

My point about US border arrangements is that they are likely to be stringent and unless a special travel tunnel is developed it could be difficult to see how you will be able to travel without testing and quarantining.
The original q was do I think an August trip is likely?
At the minute things are improving, so it’s about 40% chance.
It will just take a nasty variant to develop and we are back to 0%
 

Kate_45

Mouseketeer
Joined
Feb 27, 2017
Well, my point was that they have brought the deadline forward which can only be a good thing.
If they say by 31st July then logistically they will be offering people dates way before that.
The first dose is still 80+% effective.
They brought the deadline forward because that have changed the "vaccinated" criteria. It is a good thing I agree that they aren't extending it even with this and I am very happy that so much vaccination is happening and that lots of people are being given some protection. Personally I would prefer to see the vulnerable fully vaccinated and not have the enhanced mutation risks of a partially vaccinated population.

Same areas may be offering for the first doses way before that, some won't. Most places are doing incredibly well but I know of an extremely clinical vulnerable person in Scotland over 80 who still hasn't been given his first vaccine. He was desperate for it and now he's fallen and gone into hospital. But anyway, no cooperation between countries will accept half a vaccine as someone being vaccinated. Even if it were 80% effective, which it isn't. (76% with AZ and v. small and biased sample size, No proof that it lasts with Pfizer after a peak of 52% from first dose. This one is the concerning one as it is still a large part of the stock but is being treated the same as AZ though it is not. We may end up with zero protection by the time they get to dose 2 so that one isn't effective and we are more dependant than we need to be on the autumn boosters. But by then the gov might be justifying mix and match anyway).

Back on topic. I think an august trip is unlikely. And I think you are 100% correct with your last line about nasty variants.
 

Plague

Frozen II Fan
Joined
Jun 14, 2020
We may end up with zero protection by the time they get to dose 2 so that one isn't effective and we are more dependant than we need to be on the autumn boosters. But by then the gov might be justifying mix and match anyway).
There it's a trial just getting underway to do controlled tests on both varying the gap between the doses and mixing them. But it all takes time.
I also saw a comment by a researcher in an article yesterday that the Pfizer may not be 95% after all - something about 3,000 Covid19 cases being excluded from the results.
And then, as said, there is the mutation problem.

There are so many uncertainties people really need to manage their expectations. Hope is good - just don't let it morph into something more substantial yet.
 

jackieleanne

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 17, 2008
Promising news out from Scotland today from Public Health Scotland that Pfizer reduced hospitalisations by 85% and Oxford AZ by 94%. I wonder as well if the G7 meeting could well signal some opening up afterwards of International Travel I'm certainly more hopeful August onwards this week than I was last. Of course that's still 50/50!
 

Ruttangel

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
They brought the deadline forward because that have changed the "vaccinated" criteria. It is a good thing I agree that they aren't extending it even with this and I am very happy that so much vaccination is happening and that lots of people are being given some protection. Personally I would prefer to see the vulnerable fully vaccinated and not have the enhanced mutation risks of a partially vaccinated population.

Same areas may be offering for the first doses way before that, some won't. Most places are doing incredibly well but I know of an extremely clinical vulnerable person in Scotland over 80 who still hasn't been given his first vaccine. He was desperate for it and now he's fallen and gone into hospital. But anyway, no cooperation between countries will accept half a vaccine as someone being vaccinated. Even if it were 80% effective, which it isn't. (76% with AZ and v. small and biased sample size, No proof that it lasts with Pfizer after a peak of 52% from first dose. This one is the concerning one as it is still a large part of the stock but is being treated the same as AZ though it is not. We may end up with zero protection by the time they get to dose 2 so that one isn't effective and we are more dependant than we need to be on the autumn boosters. But by then the gov might be justifying mix and match anyway).

Back on topic. I think an august trip is unlikely. And I think you are 100% correct with your last line about nasty variants.
I completely understand what issues you are raising.
One last point from me, Public Health are saying After 1 dose the risk of serious illness is reduced by 90% 4 weeks after vaccination. We should see hospitalisations drop off dramatically.
I’m going to look back at this post in 2 months and see what the data is indicating then. Will all schools opening increase transmission and variants? We will see
 

Ruttangel

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Promising news out from Scotland today from Public Health Scotland that Pfizer reduced hospitalisations by 85% and Oxford AZ by 94%. I wonder as well if the G7 meeting could well signal some opening up afterwards of International Travel I'm certainly more hopeful August onwards this week than I was last. Of course that's still 50/50!
Jinx, jinx again!
 
  • Ruttangel

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 21, 2013
    “Boris Johnson said a global travel taskforce would put forward a report on how to return to international travel on 12 April.
    The government would then make a decision on removing restrictions on international travel.
    However this would not happen until 17 May at the earliest.”

    I guess we’re waiting for Apr 12th to get some news then.
    Whether that news mentions US or it’s just about EU travel we will see.
     

    Thegoatfeeder

    Main thing WDW Needs? More Muppets!
    Joined
    Dec 18, 2019
    “Boris Johnson said a global travel taskforce would put forward a report on how to return to international travel on 12 April.
    The government would then make a decision on removing restrictions on international travel.
    However this would not happen until 17 May at the earliest.”

    I guess we’re waiting for Apr 12th to get some news then.
    Whether that news mentions US or it’s just about EU travel we will see.
    Purely from an economic/business perspective, the UK government is going to want to at least open up the Heathrow - New York route when it can. I'm sure there were talks after lockdown 1 (or was it 2, I lose track!) about opening a travel corridor, I suspect an agreement with the US will come at the same time, if not shortly after any agreements with EU countries.

    Having said that, whether that is exclusive to business travel to the US as opposed to leisure travel and therefore only very specific routes, I guess that is up for debate.
     

    RossS

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jun 24, 2015
    We are due to fly 19th august 2021 after postponing our honeymoon from last year.

    Trying not to get our hopes up.

    We are not sure what to yet. Our final payment is due in May (we will probably have a better picture by then)

    The only thing that will stop us is the quarantines. I hope that they will not be in place in august but it is all guess work at the moment. Realistically, i can see there being quarantines.

    We cannot go if there is a quarantine due to both of us working in schools, we are not sure what to do as we do not want to move it again to next year, nor do we want to wait a few weeks before them announcing a quarantine and us losing all our money!
     
  • McCrae

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 29, 2009
    We are due to fly 19th august 2021 after postponing our honeymoon from last year.

    Trying not to get our hopes up.

    We are not sure what to yet. Our final payment is due in May (we will probably have a better picture by then)

    The only thing that will stop us is the quarantines. I hope that they will not be in place in august but it is all guess work at the moment. Realistically, i can see there being quarantines.

    We cannot go if there is a quarantine due to both of us working in schools, we are not sure what to do as we do not want to move it again to next year, nor do we want to wait a few weeks before them announcing a quarantine and us losing all our money!
    The US is further advanced in its vaccine roll out than we are in the U.K. Looking good for your trip.
     

    RossS

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Jun 24, 2015
    Not getting my hopes up, but thanks. A few weeks ago we were 100% sure we would cancel.

    All about the quarantine. Don't care about masks.

    All i want to hear is the IOA Port of Entry music and stand there for a frw minutes and ill be happy. (Universal fan) wife is the Disney geek!!
     

    bex7583

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 29, 2012
    We are due to fly 19th august 2021 after postponing our honeymoon from last year.

    Trying not to get our hopes up.

    We are not sure what to yet. Our final payment is due in May (we will probably have a better picture by then)

    The only thing that will stop us is the quarantines. I hope that they will not be in place in august but it is all guess work at the moment. Realistically, i can see there being quarantines.

    We cannot go if there is a quarantine due to both of us working in schools, we are not sure what to do as we do not want to move it again to next year, nor do we want to wait a few weeks before them announcing a quarantine and us losing all our money!
    Fingers crossed for you.
     

    gavvy

    DIS Veteran
    DVC Gold
    Joined
    Apr 28, 2003
    In some ways it does not matter what position UK is in come Summer, if the USA still has a closed border then we sadly have no chance of going.

    Hopefully with falling cases and increases in people having the Jab the disease will be at such low levels that we are judged to be low risk and are allowed, but its too early to say when/ if that will happen
     

    jackieleanne

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jun 17, 2008
    The US is further advanced in its vaccine roll out than we are in the U.K. Looking good for your trip.
    They are acutally further behind than the UK when you look at per capita on the vacinne roll out. The US has done something like 20.63 per 100 people and the UK about 29.3 per 100 people. In terms of vacine numbers they'll always be way ahead because their population dwarfs ours but they have more to do.
     



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