August 2021 - will I be going ?

SirDuff

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 19, 2014
Oh I can imagine it is messy and there's so much to factor in. I just think the UK is painted out to be this country that seems to have the delta variant running rampant but not others, but that could easily be down to the newspaper I read etc. I also considered the fact that the rest of the EU is allowing US visitors into their countries without quarantine measures which the UK still has so whether Biden will do something similar and reciprocate those "rules".
I of course hope it's a matter of everywhere WITHIN the EU can travel and bit going off the fact that the UK is not part of the EU Union anymore.
Time will tell ... which I'm praying is soon as I'm going stir crazy haha
It's isn't just where you're reading. From Our World in Data (it doesn't track the variant, but UK is clearly out-of-sync in terms number of cases to most European countries (admittedly, just a small sample here).

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JordanClark9

Earning My Ears
Joined
Jun 1, 2018
Just today's tap with the hammer from Reuters:
U.S. extends travel curbs at Canada, Mexico land borders through Aug. 21
The one slightly positive takeaway is that the pressure for some sort of easing, possibly just for vaccinated travellers, is building.
I suppose the only take away I have from this is that they're trying to ensure that testing/vaccination records are able to be accessed for travel into the country - which I'd imagine would be a lot more difficult to police on land borders than it is for air travel.
 

Plague

Frozen II Fan
Joined
Jun 14, 2020
I just think the UK is painted out to be this country that seems to have the delta variant running rampant but not others
From Our World in Data (it doesn't track the variant, but UK is clearly out-of-sync in terms number of cases to most European countries (admittedly, just a small sample here).
I've been using the Zoe app since it first appeared and keeping up to date through their info, mainly Tim Spector's YT reports.
In the most recent one he mentioned that our figures, while not 'good', are not as bad as other countries make them look because we do 3 times more testing than any other country. So of course we pick up/confirm a greater proportion of cases. Or put another way, many countries are under-reporting cases (not necessarily deliberately, just different systems, etc.).
Hopefully the CDC will be aware of that factor, though how/if that filters through to the decision makers is another matter ... they love the chart to knee-jerk way of impressing their voters :)
 

tinkerbell1991

DIS Veteran
Joined
Apr 12, 2011
I've been using the Zoe app since it first appeared and keeping up to date through their info, mainly Tim Spector's YT reports.
In the most recent one he mentioned that our figures, while not 'good', are not as bad as other countries make them look because we do 3 times more testing than any other country. So of course we pick up/confirm a greater proportion of cases. Or put another way, many countries are under-reporting cases (not necessarily deliberately, just different systems, etc.).
Hopefully the CDC will be aware of that factor, though how/if that filters through to the decision makers is another matter ... they love the chart to knee-jerk way of impressing their voters :)
Thats good to know as I actually didn't realise that, thank you 😊
 

SirDuff

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 19, 2014
I've been using the Zoe app since it first appeared and keeping up to date through their info, mainly Tim Spector's YT reports.
In the most recent one he mentioned that our figures, while not 'good', are not as bad as other countries make them look because we do 3 times more testing than any other country. So of course we pick up/confirm a greater proportion of cases. Or put another way, many countries are under-reporting cases (not necessarily deliberately, just different systems, etc.).
Hopefully the CDC will be aware of that factor, though how/if that filters through to the decision makers is another matter ... they love the chart to knee-jerk way of impressing their voters :)
That's true and I should have added more.

They do test more than other countries. But, the two charts don't align. They've been out-testing those countries for months (they began pulling away at the beginning of the year and have been somewhat plateaued recently) but the relative spike in cases has only been since about late May. It cannot all be explained by testing. The fact that the positivity rate is going up also suggests that the excess numbers are not entirely due to extra testing.

The good thing that the UK has going for it is a very high vaccination rate (though not that much higher than the comparison countries) so they are seeing relatively milder cases than they saw during other surges and their CFR is low (though the hospitalization rate is starting to creep up). And the estimated effective R, though increasing, isn't out-of-line with other (similar) countries.

The Delta variant is also very widespread (% distribution of variants is not dependent testing rates), but given all the quickly popping up new variants, we may find that Delta isn't our biggest worry shortly.

Their 'ping' system seems to be a tale of two halves - much of the population has the app, but the "pingdemic" (people repeatedly being forced to isolate because they were near someone who tested positive) is leading to some people ignoring the ping or completely removing the app. I've seen any studies comparing the rates of app use and/or pings across countries (though I suspect such analysis does exist).
 
  • Plague

    Frozen II Fan
    Joined
    Jun 14, 2020
    It cannot all be explained by testing.
    Oh, that wasn't what I meant. I think the shape of the curves is pretty correct - it's just that our absolute numbers (per whatever) are probably not as bad as they look because we find and count more than other countries. (But we still don't catch all, so there is still some estimating going on.)

    Our timing is also making it look bad because we have loosened up a lot of late, whereas many of those countries are still in various stages of lockdowns. Eg. That Netherlands 'peak' is presumably due to the big u-turn and reapplication of restrictions they did having eased a lot. If that line had continued we'd probably be in second place by now.
    The US is tricky as it is so big. It makes more sense to show individual states as they are more similar in size to European countries and we know that most of their current rise is down to a handful of states.
     

    Minniesgal

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 29, 2013
    This may have zero to do with what you're asking but when I went to London, the Christmas markets were open and I was so excited to hit the first one....and then....I saw a second one, and it had exactly the same booths with the same merch as the first. Here I was thinking that the stuff was artisan crafts and such and it was just a bunch of store bought junk. I was so disappointed. Anyway....carry on. lol
    It's isn't just where you're reading. From Our World in Data (it doesn't track the variant, but UK is clearly out-of-sync in terms number of cases to most European countries (admittedly, just a small sample here).

    View attachment 591273
    Graphs like that are not suitable for making comparisons between countries we test more and amplify the test more than other countries comparing apples and oranges here
     

    SirDuff

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 19, 2014
    Oh, that wasn't what I meant. I think the shape of the curves is pretty correct - it's just that our absolute numbers (per whatever) are probably not as bad as they look because we find and count more than other countries. (But we still don't catch all, so there is still some estimating going on.)

    Our timing is also making it look bad because we have loosened up a lot of late, whereas many of those countries are still in various stages of lockdowns. Eg. That Netherlands 'peak' is presumably due to the big u-turn and reapplication of restrictions they did having eased a lot. If that line had continued we'd probably be in second place by now.
    The US is tricky as it is so big. It makes more sense to show individual states as they are more similar in size to European countries and we know that most of their current rise is down to a handful of states.
    Oh, definitely. I was talking more about the shape - that jump over the last few weeks is pretty stark and a contrast to other countries. But totally didn't make that clear at all. And, it isn't tied to a similar jump in testing - the higher numbers appear to be more testing AND something else. Usually, more testing would lead to a lower positivity rate (since your threshold for testing is lower), but we don't see that currently in the UK.

    Comparison for anything COVID-19 related is hard. I recall earlier Belgium had massively high mortailty rates compared to other European countries. BUT, they were much broader in their defintion of "death from COVID-19" than most countries, which probably explained the difference (or most of it). I'm personally somewhat of a fan of excess mortality (okay, not a fan of extra people dying, but of the metric). Assuming the modeling is done well (which I know it isn't - yet), it does remove some of the caveats. It does, however, only catch the extreme (deaths). It also is heavily influenced by the overall state of the healthcare system (which, depending on your view point, is good or bad). I tend to work with low-income countries where the CFR is high.

    I'm really hoping Biden lifts the ban soon (though I'm in Switzerland, not the UK) so that I can finally see my family again (Canadian living in Europe with family in the US). In terms of timing making the UK look bad - sure, a different snapshot a few weeks ago (a few weeks from now?) was (will be?) totally different. But the PP was talking about *now*, so that was what we were looking at. And, yes, I think the NL peak and then drop is based on them widely opening up and then (fairly quickly) locking back down again. I'm hoping that things don't go the same way in the UK and that you don't have to lockdown again. And that we can all travel where we want to/need to.
     
  • Plague

    Frozen II Fan
    Joined
    Jun 14, 2020
    you don't have to lockdown again.
    I can't see it. Although there are naysayers, with winter on the horizon we need to get to herd immunity soon or suffer more consequential losses until spring rolls round..
    I think of winter (with flu, etc, and everyone indoors) like a big train approaching a level crossing and each country is a car on the road - you either get across before the train, or you have to slam on the brakes and idle till it passes. The UK is trying to beat it which could turn out badly, but with our pedal currently to the metal we are approaching a point where it may be worse to (try and) stop than keep going.
     

    bcwife76

    DisneyMomma
    Joined
    Dec 10, 2014
    Well... The article says till at least August 21st. So we could still go for a maybe for the last week..?
    (I agree with that's a no, but let's stay positive ! :D )
    August 21 is in reference to the Canada US border and the Mexico US border only, sorry.
     

    Plague

    Frozen II Fan
    Joined
    Jun 14, 2020
    August 21 is in reference to the Canada US border and the Mexico US border only, sorry.
    Well spotted.

    On rereading the article there is another irritation in "The Biden administration has refused to offer any metrics that would trigger when it will unwind restrictions and has not disclosed if it will remove restrictions on individual countries or focus on enhancing individual traveler scrutiny."
    So aside from not having a possible date we still don't even have an idea of what plan, if there even is one, is in place to inform any decision to announce a date. >:(
     

    Karin1984

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 5, 2012
    August 21 is in reference to the Canada US border and the Mexico US border only, sorry.
    Well spotted.

    On rereading the article there is another irritation in "The Biden administration has refused to offer any metrics that would trigger when it will unwind restrictions and has not disclosed if it will remove restrictions on individual countries or focus on enhancing individual traveler scrutiny."
    So aside from not having a possible date we still don't even have an idea of what plan, if there even is one, is in place to inform any decision to announce a date. >:(
    Confession: I hadn't read the Reuters article :P
    I did read the news in a Dutch newspaper, there it mentioned that till the 21st of August EU + GB / Swiss etc. wouldn't get access to the US for sure. It was phrased in such a way that me think they would re-evaluate later and maybe after the 21st there would be options.
     

    Rowlf the Dog

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Nov 13, 2015
    Well spotted.

    On rereading the article there is another irritation in "The Biden administration has refused to offer any metrics that would trigger when it will unwind restrictions and has not disclosed if it will remove restrictions on individual countries or focus on enhancing individual traveler scrutiny."
    So aside from not having a possible date we still don't even have an idea of what plan, if there even is one, is in place to inform any decision to announce a date. >:(
    Yeah, these were my exact feelings. Combined with the next paragraph "Reuters reported last week the White House was discussing the potential of mandating COVID-19 vaccines for international visitors, but no decisions have been made, sources briefed on the matter said. That idea remains under active discussion, they said." this is just so depressing. So fully vaccinated in the hope of some freetime-entertainment, but now the last hope for any of it died ("real" rock-concerts are still a no-go here in Germany in clubs as well as open airs). I also don't have any hopes for 2022 :-(
     


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