August 2015 flights - realistic price expectation?

[DLPDreams]

I apologise in advance for yet another 'flight' - which way will prices go thread But, I am in a bit of a dilemma.

I am sure this will be a one off trip for us, if we go again, it will be a good few years before we can afford it - if we can! So, we'd all agreed 3 weeks from around 9/10 August would be best to do WDW, DC/SW and Universal. We could live without the water bits but Universal and WDW are must dos.

Although there are relatively few fly drive prices out yet (and no scheduled or charter flight prices on their own), there are now some and for our dates (or even trying to reduce days slightly), prices are in excess of £1155 for each of us (4 ad/2 ch). If we go for just two weeks, the last two weeks in August, I can get flights for around £835 pp at the moment. I hadn't considered that the flights would be much (if any more) for 3 weeks than 2 - clearly I knew accom would be more. I am tied with return time of no later than 30 Aug due to school return.

I know no-one has a crystal ball, but with flight prices starting out so high, is there any chance if we hold off that we may get much cheaper than the £1155 we are being quoted now?

Most TAs say the prices are pre-booking prices and so tend to be cheaper but I'm not sure this is always the case? Looking at August this year, the prices aren't much higher than this starting out price for 2015!?

Anyone been for 3 weeks in August and paid less than £1k pp for flights (direct from either Manc or Glasgow)? And if yes, can you remember when you booked - did you book direct with airline?

Thanks so much in advance .

 

[Azza1987]

Sorry I can't help with forecasting flights as I don't travel in the school holidays but I just wanted to say we packed in all 4 main parks at WDW (even doing MK twice!), DC, SW, Universal IOA & outlet shopping in 8 nights last year with a pool afternoon.

I know you'll be going with children so obviously can't charge about as much as we did or stay up too late but if your flight prices stay at that price and you have to do 14 days don't be disheartened! I think you'd still get most of it done with plenty of pool afternoons etc!

 

[Rach78]

Are you happy to fly any airline for the cheapest price? If so dates for this August with US Airways for example are £2800 for 2 adults and 2 children Man-phil-orlando. Good flight times, short connection in philly, can pick which days are cheapest to fly out and return and can choose your seats for free with them online as soon as you book. We are flying with them this Easter and paid £1800 for 2 adults and 2 children not long after they were released.

 

[DLPDreams]

Sorry I can't help with forecasting flights as I don't travel in the school holidays but I just wanted to say we packed in all 4 main parks at WDW (even doing MK twice!), DC, SW, Universal IOA & outlet shopping in 8 nights last year with a pool afternoon.

I know you'll be going with children so obviously can't charge about as much as we did or stay up too late but if your flight prices stay at that price and you have to do 14 days don't be disheartened! I think you'd still get most of it done with plenty of pool afternoons etc!

I wouldn't like to do Universal and WDW in the two weeks I don't think - not with the HP expansion and the fact that we've never been before. I guess we could see how things went and keep it open to go to Universal but as the children pretty much go straight back to school after the trip, I don't want them absolutely exhausted going back. I had hoped 3 weeks would mean more pool/relax time .

Are you happy to fly any airline for the cheapest price? If so dates for this August with US Airways for example are £2800 for 2 adults and 2 children Man-phil-orlando. Good flight times, short connection in philly, can pick which days are cheapest to fly out and return and can choose your seats for free with them online as soon as you book. We are flying with them this Easter and paid £1800 for 2 adults and 2 children not long after they were released.

Funnily enough, I've just looked at US Airways for this year and our dates are now showing at around just shy of £1100 so not really much difference and going indirect. I am not keen to fly indirect with the girls being so young, but I agree some of the times are not that bad - 12 hours is do-able I guess.

I think it's the fact it's the august holidays - it really seems a killer for flights. I just didn't think there would be so much difference between a 14 night flight to a 21 night flight - seems very odd . I envy people who are saying they are getting flights for around £500-600 pp out of school holidays!!

I just wish flights to book direct were out, that way we would have more of an idea. I've read fly drives are always more expensive (and this currently our only option) but again, not sure this is true....

 

[2Tiggies]

I I guess we could see how things went and keep it open to go to Universal but as the children pretty much go straight back to school after the trip, I don't want them absolutely exhausted going back. I had hoped 3 weeks would mean more pool/relax time .

Take this for what it's worth. A week is not enough. Two weeks are not enough. Three weeks will not be enough and even if you do 2-3 weeks every year until your kids leave school, there will always be new things, new stages of interest and capability/stamina .... in a nutshell, you cannot do it all. None of us have so try not to let that be a factor. There will be things you don't need to do or that don't interest you and your children at this stage of their lives. That will change later, but right now you are planning for the age and stage they will be for this trip and this trip alone. Make a list of things that you absolutely have to do. Don't get too caught up on other people's reviews and experiences. You may love something less popular (we ride Figment over and over but there's never a queue because it's not a big draw). You may hate things that everyone raves (I just don't get the big hoo-haa about TSM).

You have to plan pool time in. My first trip I made this mistake: I got caught up in how much it cost for the flights and park tickets and we spent all our time in the parks. Had a blast. Arguably it was THE best trip ever, to date, for us. BUT we paid a premium to be at our resort and barely used the pool, didn't bring back a single photo of the actual resort and never ate a meal there.

The next trip I got a bit wiser, having made so many "mistakes" (please note: "mistakes" don't ruin your trip, they just give you a different experience!) The next year I made sure that we built pool and resort time into our days and felt we did just as much but there was a better fun/rest balance than the first year.

I wouldn't like to do Universal and WDW in the two weeks I don't think - not with the HP expansion and the fact that we've never been before. I guess we could see how things went and keep it open to go to Universal but as the children pretty much go straight back to school after the trip, I don't want them absolutely exhausted going back. I had hoped 3 weeks would mean more pool/relax time .



Funnily enough, I've just looked at US Airways for this year and our dates are now showing at around just shy of £1100 so not really much difference and going indirect. I am not keen to fly indirect with the girls being so young, but I agree some of the times are not that bad - 12 hours is do-able I guess.

I think it's the fact it's the august holidays - it really seems a killer for flights. I just didn't think there would be so much difference between a 14 night flight to a 21 night flight - seems very odd . I envy people who are saying they are getting flights for around £500-600 pp out of school holidays!!

I just wish flights to book direct were out, that way we would have more of an idea. I've read fly drives are always more expensive (and this currently our only option) but again, not sure this is true....

Do yourself another favor: forget about what people are paying for term time flights. I have had to change my mindset this year too as I previously did term time trip and I'm now doing the first summer trip. Term time prices do not apply so don't compare.

I prefer indirect flights when I can get them. If you get nice connection times there are some advantages and it really isn't any hassle with kids. Children tend to pick up on how you are feeling and if you are relaxed about indirect, they will be too. My daughter loves the route via Newark for example. 6.5 hour flight (instead of 9) makes it more pleasant for her, a break for a couple of hours to walk around, get some food and buy a magazine or something and then a short flight on to Orlando. Don't be too hasty to rule it out. Fair enough, you dont want to be in transit with little ones for 30 hours, lol, but there are some good connections out there. Indirect bargains tend to show up a bit later than direct deals though so they possibly wont' be showing cheap just yet.

 

[DLPDreams]

Take this for what it's worth. A week is not enough. Two weeks are not enough. Three weeks will not be enough and even if you do 2-3 weeks every year until your kids leave school, there will always be new things, new stages of interest and capability/stamina .... in a nutshell, you cannot do it all. None of us have so try not to let that be a factor. There will be things you don't need to do or that don't interest you and your children at this stage of their lives. That will change later, but right now you are planning for the age and stage they will be for this trip and this trip alone. Make a list of things that you absolutely have to do. Don't get too caught up on other people's reviews and experiences. You may love something less popular (we ride Figment over and over but there's never a queue because it's not a big draw). You may hate things that everyone raves (I just don't get the big hoo-haa about TSM).

You have to plan pool time in. My first trip I made this mistake: I got caught up in how much it cost for the flights and park tickets and we spent all our time in the parks. Had a blast. Arguably it was THE best trip ever, to date, for us. BUT we paid a premium to be at our resort and barely used the pool, didn't bring back a single photo of the actual resort and never ate a meal there.

The next trip I got a bit wiser, having made so many "mistakes" (please note: "mistakes" don't ruin your trip, they just give you a different experience!) The next year I made sure that we built pool and resort time into our days and felt we did just as much but there was a better fun/rest balance than the first year.




Do yourself another favor: forget about what people are paying for term time flights. I have had to change my mindset this year too as I previously did term time trip and I'm now doing the first summer trip. Term time prices do not apply so don't compare.

I prefer indirect flights when I can get them. If you get nice connection times there are some advantages and it really isn't any hassle with kids. Children tend to pick up on how you are feeling and if you are relaxed about indirect, they will be too. My daughter loves the route via Newark for example. 6.5 hour flight (instead of 9) makes it more pleasant for her, a break for a couple of hours to walk around, get some food and buy a magazine or something and then a short flight on to Orlando. Don't be too hasty to rule it out. Fair enough, you dont want to be in transit with little ones for 30 hours, lol, but there are some good connections out there. Indirect bargains tend to show up a bit later than direct deals though so they possibly wont' be showing cheap just yet.

Thanks for the reply

We don't expect to get everything done and for that reason, we'd rather go for 3 weeks, so we can get most things done on our 'must do' list but still have some down time with the girls. They simply cannot do a full day every day in the parks (I plan naps/time away from the parks every day going for 3 weeks). I do realise that we may miss bits on our 'list' - I know it's like comparing apples with pears but I've been to DLP 4 times with my girls (and some without) and we still haven't done everything we'd like and that doesn't bother us - we'd rather enjoy what we do and take our time if need be. Same principle in WDW.

Appreciate the comment about not comparing term time prices but it's only human nature to think 'oh, if we could go in Oct we could get flights for max £600 pp'! I know I'm never going to get that in August but was wondering whether £800-900 pp was achieveable from past people's experiences. Clearly it is if you go for two weeks, but for some reason not three!?

I think we may have to consider indirect flights but only if they are max 13 hrs travel. For 2014, at the moment at a £100 pp saving, I'd rather do the direct! I also had thought about the break up of travel time in another airport and it might be beneficial for my children - as you say, 6.5 hrs as opposed to 9 hours in one go is better. I'll do my homework on indirect routes so I'm prepared!

 

[2Tiggies]

Clearly it is if you go for two weeks, but for some reason not three!?

I can't tell you for sure what is going to happen with the prices, but I don't think the fact that you are going for three weeks has anything to do with it. Have you played with dates a bit and looked at 19 nights/20 nights/22 nights for example? You may just have either your outbound or inbound coinciding with a period when there are fewer cheaper seats available on your chosen route.

The golden rule when speculating with flights is this: There are no rules

 

[DLPDreams]

I can't tell you for sure what is going to happen with the prices, but I don't think the fact that you are going for three weeks has anything to do with it. Have you played with dates a bit and looked at 19 nights/20 nights/22 nights for example? You may just have either your outbound or inbound coinciding with a period when there are fewer cheaper seats available on your chosen route.

The golden rule when speculating with flights is this: There are no rules

Nope, flying out anytime that first week is a problem, all the flights are expensive (even 16/17/18/19 nights are the same-ish). I've tried every combination of dates - believe me .

The price of airfares don't drop until 17th August onwards - as my children are back at school on 2nd Sept (so latest flight back, we can get is Sun 30th), I could get a better price for 2 weeks, but not anything more than that due to w/c 10 Aug being expensive for flights.

I would quite happily go for 18/19/20/21 nights - but even that isn't working as first main price drop is 17th Aug for flights .

I'll keep looking - I guess plenty of time as the direct flights aren't released until Sept time, but thanks for all your help

 

[Elise79]

The issue is with flight prices is they are usually high until the 15/16 August then they fall.

Airlines are businesses and know that most people want to be back for the weekend before school starts and generally people go for 2 weeks.

If you want to do 3 weeks you will generally have to pay more to do it.

You can do WDW and Universal in 2 weeks and have some down time however as has been said - you will not do everything.

 

[joolz1910]

Nope, flying out anytime that first week is a problem, all the flights are expensive (even 16/17/18/19 nights are the same-ish). I've tried every combination of dates - believe me .

The price of airfares don't drop until 17th August onwards - as my children are back at school on 2nd Sept (so latest flight back, we can get is Sun 30th), I could get a better price for 2 weeks, but not anything more than that due to w/c 10 Aug being expensive for flights.

I would quite happily go for 18/19/20/21 nights - but even that isn't working as first main price drop is 17th Aug for flights .

I'll keep looking - I guess plenty of time as the direct flights aren't released until Sept time, but thanks for all your help

I did every configuration too as I wanted to go for longer then 14 nights - it increased the price by £2000!

A few people on here have beed for 3 weeks, so hopefully they can say just how much more you can expect to pay. Like you, I expected the flights to be the same and to just pay extra for accomodation etc
m

The issue is with flight prices is they are usually high until the 15/16 August then they fall.

Airlines are businesses and know that most people want to be back for the weekend before school starts and generally people go for 2 weeks.

If you want to do 3 weeks you will generally have to pay more to do it.

You can do WDW and Universal in 2 weeks and have some down time however as has been said - you will not do everything.

This is what I have decided to do - 2 nights at Universal, follwed by 12 nights at WDW. We will be flying back on the Sunday before the kids go back to school - like most of the Brits in Orlando lol.

 

[micksn]

I don't know which airline you're looking at, but I did some dummy pricing with Thomas Cook from Manchester and the length of trip didn't seem to make a difference. You pay an amount for the outbound and then the inbound is separate. Although their prices are high at the moment for this August, when they released them in June they were much cheaper. We paid £800 per person, but could have got it cheaper if we had been more flexible. We had to travel on a Saturday! They also now fly into Orlando so you can use magic express. If you were looking at hiring a car you could do this for a short period of your holiday.
Sadly Thomas Cook don't fly from Glasgow in August anymore, which is a shame as the prices used to go down when the Scottish schools went back. I don't know if Thomson would be cheaper then.

 

[zippy99]

We flew in August last year and got a fly drive with BA - cost £650 pp with the car and that was 4 of us (kids are teens so = adults). We booked that 6 months in advance. Indirect via Miami arriving at 17.30 and we departed Miami at 9.30pm to come home. Great arrival time and excellent departure meant I had no jet lag for the first time ever as it was an easier time to sleep

I normally feel envious as the London flights seem more expensive than flying from Manchester or Scotland - I am not sure if BA or American Airlines do a flight from the northern airports but worth looking at as you can reserve for a £300 deposit and sometimes the security of knowing it is booked and you can chip away at the balance is more practical than waiting.

Also consider flights booked through WDTC we got a great deal from them this year.

 

[catherine]

We flew with Virgin from Man from 9th - 30th August last year and we booked our flights pretty early and it cost us £4,109 for 3 adults and a teen. I don't know whether we could have got a cheaper price because I haven't got the time to search consistently, but when I did check prices I didn't see anything cheaper, other than indirect flights. The one thing I did notice that after several months the price had increased.

 

[DLPDreams]

I don't know which airline you're looking at, but I did some dummy pricing with Thomas Cook from Manchester and the length of trip didn't seem to make a difference. You pay an amount for the outbound and then the inbound is separate. Although their prices are high at the moment for this August, when they released them in June they were much cheaper. We paid £800 per person, but could have got it cheaper if we had been more flexible. We had to travel on a Saturday! They also now fly into Orlando so you can use magic express. If you were looking at hiring a car you could do this for a short period of your holiday.
Sadly Thomas Cook don't fly from Glasgow in August anymore, which is a shame as the prices used to go down when the Scottish schools went back. I don't know if Thomson would be cheaper then.

Yes, it's the outbound flight that is pushing the price up for 2015. I was being quoted for Virgin flights (no other operators have released yet - and this was fly drive, as again Virgin haven't released directly yet - 11 months before). I have been told (and can see myself) that flights roughly bet 7-16 August are sky high going out. Return near 30th Aug is OK. If we want to go for 3 weeks and be back for children for school we have to around 9/10 August. Any later and we can't get 3 weeks in. I'd be happy to go 16 Aug but we'd end up with only 2 weeks....

I will consider TC when released - do you know when that will be - I have no idea for charters? Thomson fly from our local airport too but I suspect will be very expensive (would be lovely not to have to do a 3 hour drive to airport though!).

I couldn't get TC or Thomson to quote me online for a 3 week flight at all (for 2014 for comparison) - just defaults to 2 weeks which doesn't help. Am I doing something wrong .

 

[DLPDreams]

We flew in August last year and got a fly drive with BA - cost £650 pp with the car and that was 4 of us (kids are teens so = adults). We booked that 6 months in advance. Indirect via Miami arriving at 17.30 and we departed Miami at 9.30pm to come home. Great arrival time and excellent departure meant I had no jet lag for the first time ever as it was an easier time to sleep

I normally feel envious as the London flights seem more expensive than flying from Manchester or Scotland - I am not sure if BA or American Airlines do a flight from the northern airports but worth looking at as you can reserve for a £300 deposit and sometimes the security of knowing it is booked and you can chip away at the balance is more practical than waiting.

Also consider flights booked through WDTC we got a great deal from them this year.

What were your dates please? I can get around £800 pp but not until 17th August which is no good for us.

Just realised - you flew from London. That would be a major hassle for us - not driveable, we'd have to get train or fly down into LHR and then change so London is out for us. We would do the 3 hour drive to Manc or Glas but London just not do-able this year for us.

I will consider booking with anyone if they can get me a reasonable deal - seems to me, the more you shop around, the more you can potentially save! Have to say, I know it's slightly different, but always found DLRP expensive for flights when going to Paris.

 

[DLPDreams]

We flew with Virgin from Man from 9th - 30th August last year and we booked our flights pretty early and it cost us £4,109 for 3 adults and a teen. I don't know whether we could have got a cheaper price because I haven't got the time to search consistently, but when I did check prices I didn't see anything cheaper, other than indirect flights. The one thing I did notice that after several months the price had increased.

That is a little less than I am being quoted fly drive as works out just over £1000 pp. Looks like that might be our best price direct. Thanks for letting me know this - it helps a lot .

Can you remember when you booked please? And did you book direct with Virgin?

 

[micksn]

To give you an idea you can go to flythomascook and look in flight deals USA to get prices for this August. You can book inbound and outbound separately for any number of nights
I remember waiting for them to be released for this year as Disney deals were already available. We booked very early June.
Thomson do give prices for 3 weeks for this August, but from Newcastle it's about 1500 I'm sure it was under 1000 when released. We did the journey to Manchester last time and are doing at again this time. It was easier than we thought due to travelling very early in the morning both ways.

 

[catherine]

That is a little less than I am being quoted fly drive as works out just over £1000 pp. Looks like that might be our best price direct. Thanks for letting me know this - it helps a lot .

Can you remember when you booked please? And did you book direct with Virgin?

Yes, I booked directly with Virgin and if I remember rightly I booked the flights in Oct.

 

[DLPDreams]

To give you an idea you can go to flythomascook and look in flight deals USA to get prices for this August. You can book inbound and outbound separately for any number of nights
I remember waiting for them to be released for this year as Disney deals were already available. We booked very early June.
Thomson do give prices for 3 weeks for this August, but from Newcastle it's about 1500 I'm sure it was under 1000 when released. We did the journey to Manchester last time and are doing at again this time. It was easier than we thought due to travelling very early in the morning both ways.

Thanks Mick - I hadn't picked up on doing two separate flights - I would imagine this is more expensive than booking a return though? It normally is with airlines.

So, do you think it's June time when the charters bring out their flights for the next year? I know you can book packages earlier but that's no good to us.

If I could get flights from our local airport for £1000 pp I would grab them. At the moment it's looking at more to fly from Manc and we have the hassle of 3 hour journey each way, airport hotel and parking to sort (for two cars). I am sure it would actually be cheaper to fly locally - we'd probably even get taxis to/from airport rather than paying for 3 weeks parking!

Yes, I booked directly with Virgin and if I remember rightly I booked the flights in Oct.

Thanks Catherine - I am thinking for our dates it will be Sept release - will keep looking near the time!

 

[bex7583]

hi can i just say we did indirect flights last year with 3kids age 7 , 5 and 4 it was our first family visit , the whole process was very straight forward and smooth we also had a very small queue at immigration in what felt like an empty airport when we got off our flight in orlando it was much busier and i imagine we would have been queing a lot longer in the immigration lines there