August 2010 Code watch

[LisaNJ25]

Ok, wait now i am confused, so let me get this straight.

My mom made her room reservation for August, she also made all of her ADRs (3 of her ADRs are for a party of 11 b/c 3 families are going). So if free dining comes out and she calls Disney and asks that they apply the Free Dining to her room then she would lose her ADRs?!?! or no? I am so confused b/c that has nothing to do with anything.

noo.. your mom will be fine.. the only time you need a reservations is when you books 180+10.

Adding FD will not affect any reservations she has. Her reservation number will not change by adding FD.

 

[WeLoveLilo05]

noo.. your mom will be fine.. the only time you need a reservations is when you books 180+10.

Adding FD will not affect any reservations she has. Her reservation number will not change by adding FD.

Thank you! I was getting really confused and it wasn't making any sense lol.

 

[LisaNJ25]

I just got off the phone with Disney Dining Reservations and the CM stated: Yes, if you recieve FD after you make the ADR's you would need to contact DDR and rebook. Like I stated: 3 years ago I made ressie's and then was offered FD, when I called just to check if all was okay, I was told I had too rebook. The CM said the booking code for FD is entered into the system and is tied to the ressie and name. So....... that just leaves us.....

An awful lot of people would have to book rooms for Disney even to come close to filing rooms and that ain't gonna happen. If FD isn't extended, the parks are really gonna be empty in Late August and Sept. So ADR's will be easy to get.

By the way, I don't need FD this year, I NEED ROOM DISCOUNT'S!!!

Some CM's dont know what they are talking about. If you called back you would get a different answer.

 

[LisaNJ25]

Thank you! I was getting really confused and it wasn't making any sense lol.

lol your welcome.. the information can make you head spin. The resorts do set X amount of rooms for the promo so make sure she calls on the first day.

 

[chocovrdmicears]

Ok, wait now i am confused, so let me get this straight.

My mom made her room reservation for August, she also made all of her ADRs (3 of her ADRs are for a party of 11 b/c 3 families are going). So if free dining comes out and she calls Disney and asks that they apply the Free Dining to her room then she would lose her ADRs?!?! or no? I am so confused b/c that has nothing to do with anything.

She will be fine. Applying Free Dining to her reservation does not affect her ADR's.

ETA: Did she book a room only or a package? (It will still NOT affect her ADR's.) But in order to just 'apply' the Free Dining to an exisiting reservation, you must have a package booked (room + tickets).

 

[doug65]

I was one that said book the room...Someone said that it reduces rooms for others??? That makes little sense to me actually unless I am missing something. If a new promo comes out, the same allotted amount gets released, whoever calls gets it...but at same time, if you already have the room booked and you are just making changes, ...

I salute your proactivity and willingness to take charge and make it happen(ta-daaa!). And I'm not telling you what to do, but my concern is this: the way it's believed to work, is that sometime in late winter/early spring, the projected occupancy of the Disney resorts for August and September is calculated. This percentage is in part, determined by how many people have already booked a room at a resort. So, let's say Pop has a projected occupancy of 56%. Mgmt wants at least 75% occupancy, so they offer free dining on the number of rooms in Pop necessary to raise it's projected occupancy up to 75%. By booking rooms early, before FD is announced, you actively raise the projected occupancy of Pop, thereby reducing the number of FD rooms necessary to get it's occupancy up to 75%.

Say Pop has 2000 rooms with a projected occupancy of 56% which is 1120 rooms booked for Aug/Sep. To raise its occupancy up to 75%, means they offer FD for 380 rooms in Pop. However if you and 58 other people book prior to FD being announced, they only need to offer FD on 321 rooms to get occupancy up to 75%. Every time someone prebooks a room at Pop, not only does an angel Not get it's wings, someone may have to upgrade to a moderate to get FD. Remember, you may already have a room, but now the pool is reduced from 380 to 321 and you Still have to get your room converted to one of the 321 FD rooms.

You see why I think it's not such a good idea, even for those who are pre-booking?

 

[chocovrdmicears]

I salute your proactivity and willingness to take charge and make it happen(ta-daaa!). And I'm not telling you what to do, but my concern is this: the way it's believed to work, is that sometime in late winter/early spring, the projected occupancy of the Disney resorts for August and September is calculated. This percentage is in part, determined by how many people have already booked a room at a resort. So, let's say Pop has a projected occupancy of 56%. Mgmt wants at least 75% occupancy, so they offer free dining on the number of rooms in Pop necessary to raise it's projected occupancy up to 75%. By booking rooms early, before FD is announced, you actively raise the projected occupancy of Pop, thereby reducing the number of FD rooms necessary to get it's occupancy up to 75%.

Say Pop has 2000 rooms with a projected occupancy of 56% which is 1120 rooms booked for Aug/Sep. To raise its occupancy up to 75%, means they offer FD for 380 rooms in Pop. However if you and 58 other people book prior to FD being announced, they only need to offer FD on 321 rooms to get occupancy up to 75%. Every time someone prebooks a room at Pop, not only does an angel Not get it's wings, someone may have to upgrade to a moderate to get FD. Remember, you may already have a room, but now the pool is reduced from 380 to 321 and you Still have to get your room converted to one of the 321 FD rooms.

You see why I think it's not such a good idea, even for those who are pre-booking?

I agree with you. I understand what you are saying...but it is not *what* you are saying, it is *how* you are saying it. Your posting are coming across a little...um...angry and sarcastic. Unfortunately your messages gets lost in that.

 

[englishrose47]

I booked last year before FD was announced and then changed to FD !!!I think that was still the period when adrs were at 90 days !! But when I did make my adrs they didn't ask nor have they ever for a reservation # for my trip!!They just ask for a phone # !!This year I am seriosly thinking of going in September and will be booking shortly !! The only way I will go is if there is FD !!! But I hopefully will have booked by then !!

 

[KTJAY]

Hi-I am hoping to book a trip the end of Aug-beg of Sep for my goddaughter's 1st trip. I received a postcard in the mail yesterday for FD that ends July 3rd. Will they send out more for Aug/Sep? Do people get multiple offers? Last year I only got a postcard for FD Oct-Dec

 

[WeLoveLilo05]

She will be fine. Applying Free Dining to her reservation does not affect her ADR's.

ETA: Did she book a room only or a package? (It will still NOT affect her ADR's.) But in order to just 'apply' the Free Dining to an exisiting reservation, you must have a package booked (room + tickets).

Yes she has a package
thanks everyone

 

[Halloweenqueen]

I totally understand the debate.

I guess I'm one of the offenders. I booked our Grand Gathering a couple of months ago. Yes, I did it during the traditional FD period.

Honestly, I didn't want to take the chance of ADRs once FD is released. I wanted to the piece of mind of making ADRs at the 180 mark. I wouldn't have made our reservations if ADRs were still at 90. This is the first time I've booked before the FD release.

I had to make reservations for parties between 7 and 13 people. It was so nice to do all my ADRs online within 15 minutes.


Disney makes these rules, not the guests. How was I going to get 13 people into a CRT breakfast without booking early?

 

[CanadianGuy]

Ok.. there's a lot of misinformation and some correct information and it's all mixed together in here..

To Summarize:

When Disney prepares a promo -- like FREE DINING or BUY 4 GET 3 or whatever.. they do it based on the room AVAILABILITY.. (unbooked rooms) not based on how many of the already booked rooms they *think* will wanna convert to the promo.

SO.. when everyone 'en masse' books during the expected Free Dining window.. (before the promo is released)... that in and of itself reduces the amount of rooms that Disney is likely to offer on the promo and/or may reduce the actual 'travel window dates' for the promo.

Add to that, this overall reduces the effectiveness of the promo. All the rack rate rooms given up by guests converting to the promo will often sit empty ...

Now.. in MANY cases.. people are able to convert an existing reservation to a 'promo' provided that there is availability in the resort/room category they already have booked and during the dates they have booked. But many many many other people have to change their dates and/or resort and/or room category to get the promo.

Note -- there are THREE different factors there.. Dates/Resort/Room Category.

For those who have to change their reservation - what benefit did they receive for booking the reservation before the promo? None.

Booking the 'exact' resort you want ... just to book ADR's.. does allow you to book your ADRs a few days earlier than otherwise .. but ... it REDUCES the amount of inventory available for the promo.

And even worse.. it reduces the inventory of rooms/category at the EXACT resort you MUST have. See the problem?

Why? Two reasons..

1. Disney has no way of knowing for sure that you intend to switch your reservation to Free Dining. Oh sure they can make a reasonable guess... But that's just it. It's a guess. If they had a true picture of how many empty rooms they REALLY have for those travel dates, the promo could be longer and include more resorts and room categories.

2. Because when you convert your non-promo reservation to the 'promo' ... the room you just gave up does NOT get dropped into the promo inventory automatically. It goes back to the rack rate inventory.

The advice I *always* give on this is exactly the same..

*If* you have no intention of going without the free dining promo -- then there is zero benefit to booking before the promo is released. None. Nada. Zilch. In fact, in that scenario... you're probably just shooting yourself and others in the foot a bit.

If your exact three choices (dates/resort/roomcategory) aren't available.. OR you decide not to go OR have to change your dates/resort/room category ...

Then all the tenative reservations are just messing up the math for the folks assigning rooms to the promo and your ADR's are just cluttering up the system possibly blocking others who ARE sure of their trips, dates, and resort/room category (regardless of F/D or whatever the promo is)

Honestly, I think the whole panic over ADR's and all that is a bit overblown.

Yes, there have been situations in the past where folks waited way too late to make their ADR's and were shut out of a lot of different places... but when the promo is typically released in April there are STILL plenty of choices available ..

Booking before a Promo is released guarantees you NOTHING but your ADRs. And really truthfully only by a FEW DAYS than someone staying completely off site. In otherwords, you can make your ADRs without a reservation at 180 days.. and those onsite can book 180 + 10.

Personally, I think it's a complete waste of time to make a reservation JUST for ADR's on the HOPE of Free Dining.

All it does is reduce the number of rooms available on the promo and mess up the dining reservations system with a bunch of stuff that is more than likely to change later. It's simple math.

--

I know there will be a flurry of posts saying "But I converted my reservation to the promo no problem.." -- yes.. it's happened that way lots of times.

BUT.. if you know and understand the math that's involved in 'game theory' and how the behavior of large numbers of people individually affect the group as a whole... then the argument for NOT booking before the promo to show Disney the TRUE number of empty rooms is pretty clear.

Everyone says the same thing "I only booked one room what difference will that make?" - None. But you and thousands of others are doing the exact same thing and is the effects of individual actions on the group as a whole that reduces the room inventory for a promo like free dining.

And I write ALL of this with some knowledge of the huge number of ADR's made months and months before ... that go unused during the F/D promo ... thus blocking other guests from enjoying that eatery.

It's a way bigger problem than most of us think.

 

[CanadianGuy]

I should add here.. that despite all my italics, bolding and underlining... I'm not telling ANYONE how to book their vacation.

But I *am* explaining how the actions of a large group acting individually affects the group as a whole.

I think it's very much worth explaining that.

 

[metsno1]

So I agree with CanadianGuy.....to a point.

We have not yet made our ressie for August, but will do so shortly (after payday!!).....

But.......

While I think his point about reserving rooms without the FD in hopes of adding it after the promo is released is probably completely valid, I'm not sure how much impact it would have on the folks that read these boards as religiously as most of us do when we're planning a trip. I don't know about everybody else, but when I have a trip in my sights, I check this very thread at least five times a day!!

He's right, it probably reduces the number of rooms available for the promo at each specific resort, and makes it harder for the general public to take advantage of that offer. But I'm not sure I consider people who follow the whole thing as closely as most of us do to be "the general public." Whether we wait to make our ressie until FD is released, or we make it sooner and try and add FD to an existing ressie, we'll be doing so within hours of the promo being released. If previous years are any indication, our chances of being successful with that are VERY high (that according to the Disney CM I spoke with a couple days ago).

I could be completely dead 100% wrong on this (hope not!!), but I don't think there's much chance of the 12000 or so people who have viewed this thread putting a real dent in Disney's interest in offering the promo! So while CG is probably right in a strict sense, I guess I just wonder if the numbers really are significant enough to have an impact.

 

[CanadianGuy]

I could be completely dead 100% wrong on this (hope not!!), but I don't think there's much chance of the 12000 or so people who have viewed this thread putting a real dent in Disney's interest in offering the promo! So while CG is probably right in a strict sense, I guess I just wonder if the numbers really are significant enough to have an impact.

12,000 folks viewing this thread. On any given night at WDW there are 20,000 rooms available for guests (give or take)...

And while this is certainly one of the biggest Disney forums out there.. we're by no means the only one..

The bulk of guests travel for F/D in September... Sure some in August too.. but typically mostly September for 5 nights or more.

It DOES have an impact.. Remember.. Only a percentage of those 20,000 rooms per night are available for the F/D promo.

So let's do some more math. Let assume that 25% of the rooms are assigned to F/D. Pure guess.

So, 5000 rooms a night x 30 nights in September = 150,000 room/nights. = available for F/D ...

12,000 folks viewing this thread with an average need of 5 nights each = 60,000 room nights pre-booked possibly. But let's say only 1/10th of those are pre-booked.

It DOES have an impact. If even 6,000 room nights are pre-booked..(I truly believe that number is WAY WAY higher) that reduces how Disney will set the % of room/nights available for free dining.. And they will reduce those from the most popular resorts FIRST.

So instead of 25% ... maybe it's only 22% or 21%. Or there are fewer nights to use those rooms.. etc.

And *some* folks who desparately wanted to stay at the Poly or Pop Century or All Star Movies so their son/daughter could be near the cool pool, or the Jungle Book icon or the Woody/Buzz Icon... are disappointed.

Not to mention the actual business costs of all of our collective shenanigans..

The sheer cost from the number of calls to the call center making the original reservations.. subsequent changes ... and then even more changes for other stuff because they weren't sure of dates and all that jazz.

Nobody likes to think about it -- but we ALL pay those costs. Disney does not just absorb those charges as a cost of doing business.. it shows up in higher room rates, more expensive dining etc.

At the end of the day, I just think people get all lathered up over a few days 'advantage' when in reality they are putting not only themselves, but everyone else at a slight disadvantage.

The perception of all of it is skewed in the wrong direction.

For a better example of how this all works - watch the scene in the movie "A Beautiful Mind" where they are selecting dates in a bar and the lead character talks to them about how they are better off NOT to choose the most attractive blond 'first'.

It's the exact same thing. It's game theory on a very large scale. It's been proven. And the guy in the movie won a Nobel Prize in Economics for his advanced theories on how it all works.

If more people thought more about the effects on the group at large.. then more people would be more likely to have a successful and desireable outcome on average, than if everyone acts strictly in their own best interest.

It's a dream. I know.

 

[metsno1]

Oh, I get what you're saying, but you have to remember that of the 12000 people viewing this (or any other threads devoted to the same topic/month on other boards), only a certain percentage of those people will actually book ressies; probably a fairly small percentage. It can, and likely does, have some sort of "impact." I'm simply saying that I don't necessarily believe that the impact is-or even possibly could be-significant enough to change the decisions that Disney makes regarding the promo.

I'm basing my opinion on a number of things. It's not that I'm disputing your logic; it's dead on! I'm just looking at the fact that it appears that Disney is following the same pattern as they have in the past few years prior to offering FD, and the pool of available recreational travel dollars continues to shrink (i.e., the economy is still in the tank and the numbers are down across the board for Disney travel-actually Disney everything!). Without the FD, I think Disney knows they won't fill the resorts to the point where they want/need to be.

With or without FD, it's an expensive vacation, and there are just a lot fewer families out there who can make it happen these days!

 

[metsno1]

And I'm also gonna make a guess here....

I'd be willing to bet that the percentage of rooms available at any given resort for FD is a LOT higher than 25%. I'm only basing that on anecdotal evidence though. When we've been down during FD in the past, we've asked CM's in the restaurants about the percentage of guests who are on the FD promo. They've consistently told us that it's well over 50% of all dining patrons. To me, that means that more than 50% of the people staying on-site are on the promo! Those are HUGE numbers!!

 

[CanadianGuy]

But that's exactly the thinking that causes the problem. Nobody perceives their individual action as affecting the whole.

I won't dispute that 'ppl are gonna do what they're gonna do' -- but ultimately the part I disagree strongly with - is that there is ANY advantage to booking now and converting the reservation later.

There truly isn't.

People can't see that and wanna book and have the reservation because they think that reservation 'gives them something' that it truly does not.

That's the part that is darned near impossible to get people to understand.

Unless they plan on going regardless of whether free dining is offered... booking before the promo is publicly available guarantees them .... nothing.

But I'm gonna give this up now...

For the record, I blame Disney for this. It is ALL a disaster of their own making. If they actually said and did the act of forcing folks to cancel a non-promo reservation and start again from scratch ... then people would understand the system better.

But all these folks "perceive" they are converting their reservation.. and since perception is reality.. I'm wasting my typing skills.

 

[CanadianGuy]

And I'm also gonna make a guess here....

I'd be willing to bet that the percentage of rooms available at any given resort for FD is a LOT higher than 25%. I'm only basing that on anecdotal evidence though. When we've been down during FD in the past, we've asked CM's in the restaurants about the percentage of guests who are on the FD promo. They've consistently told us that it's well over 50% of all dining patrons. To me, that means that more than 50% of the people staying on-site are on the promo! Those are HUGE numbers!!

Nope.. your math is faulty.

100% of the TS DINERS *could* be on the Free Dining promo. Big woop. That doesn't mean that 100% diners isn't coming from the 25% of resort guests who have all kinds of free dining credits. So certainly it would be possible that 50% of TS guests are coming from 25% or less fo the resort guests. The two do NOT have to be equal. At all.

And remember some restaurants are FAR more popular during F/D than others. It's not an even distribution by any stretch.

So the perception of a given server is mathematically skewed.

Personally, I have stayed at Disney several times during the F/D promo.. and I stayed room only. And I stayed as far away from T/S restaurants as possible. Most people NOT on the F/D plan do the exact same thing during that promo.

It's actually advice given in a number of touring guides and right here on the DIS for non F/D guests traveling during that time.

See what I mean?

 

[a1tinkfans]

OMG, I really had no inkling this was such a hot debate!
I personally took no offense when told I am "hurting" others chances by booking our Aug trip now. I mean, I am hoping for free dine, and I am hoping that nothing waylays our trip, and I will pay for dining out of pocket if I have too (but hope not too)

I think I understand all that "numbers theory stuff" though I must say it has my head spinning. But I also know I do not want to be the one telling the rest of the family who "rely" on me to give them the heads up, that we got blocked out as a result of sold out rooms at particular resort ( and that has happened in the past) ...So, I guess........ I feel, I can live with myself doing what I think is best for our group of returning Disney addicts....But that does not mean I don't "feel" for those that choose to do it another way. I hope everyone gets what they want