Attack of the Lakeshore Lodge

[sndral]

I don’t see anything in either story that suggests more hotel room conversions. The first link could be the Copper Creek refurbishment which DVC already confirmed will be completed by 2025.

And the second link seems to point to a series of new construction projects, which may or may not be hotel rooms / villas.

I know nothing about construction or permits, so this is conjecture based on my understanding of what I’ve read.
7/30/24 permit was filed by FAM (facilities & maintenance?) for general construction - FAM usually files for refurb stuff, address is WL. Contractor is Adena (used by Disney for bigger projects.) Expires 12/25/26 - unusual in that it’s 2 years. This one I suspect is for some major refurb at WL, maybe the geysers, feature pool, lobby?
The 7/31/24 permit was filed by WDI (Walt Disney Imagineering) who are the ones who file for new construction & it’s for “site & facility improvements”. Contractor is another big Disney contractor - Balfour Beatty, Expiration is 3/31/2027. I can’t find a link to the permit, but reportedly there are 17 addresses ranging from 570 - 728 West Wilderness Way, none of which currently are on the map, but the area covered is between WL & FW - & in the general area that was to be the Reflections access road. Indeed looking back to 2019 & early 2020, when Balfour Beatty was pulling permits for & had started work on Reflections, they pulled for 22 addresses on W. Wilderness Way ranging from 570 - 736 & the first set they pulled were for several addresses between 570 & 728, just like what they pulled yesterday.
Also, on 5/8/24, Disney filed for a 5 year extension on one of the Reflections area permits.
Based on all of that my idle speculation is that one permit related to a refurb at WL & the other is for next door & they’re gearing up to restart the build at Reflections.
At current sales rates Riviera will be sold out around 2027. Poly will likely be sold out by then as well. They’ll need something in addition to the cabins to offer - so Reflections it is. Other alternatives would be BLT2 or Riviera tower2 or, long shot, front of Epcot DVC.

 

[Patsaizan]

I know nothing about construction or permits, so this is conjecture based on my understanding of what I’ve read.
7/30/24 permit was filed by FAM (facilities & maintenance?) for general construction - FAM usually files for refurb stuff, address is WL. Contractor is Adena (used by Disney for bigger projects.) Expires 12/25/26 - unusual in that it’s 2 years. This one I suspect is for some major refurb at WL, maybe the geysers, feature pool, lobby?
The 7/31/24 permit was filed by WDI (Walt Disney Imagineering) who are the ones who file for new construction & it’s for “site & facility improvements”. Contractor is another big Disney contractor - Balfour Beatty, Expiration is 3/31/2027. I can’t find a link to the permit, but reportedly there are 17 addresses ranging from 570 - 728 West Wilderness Way, none of which currently are on the map, but the area covered is between WL & FW - & in the general area that was to be the Reflections access road. Indeed looking back to 2019 & early 2020, when Balfour Beatty was pulling permits for & had started work on Reflections, they pulled for 22 addresses on W. Wilderness Way ranging from 570 - 736 & the first set they pulled were for several addresses between 570 & 728, just like what they pulled yesterday.
Also, on 5/8/24, Disney filed for a 5 year extension on one of the Reflections area permits.
Based on all of that my idle speculation is that one permit related to a refurb at WL & the other is for next door & they’re gearing up to restart the build at Reflections.
At current sales rates Riviera will be sold out around 2027. Poly will likely be sold out by then as well. They’ll need something in addition to the cabins to offer - so Reflections it is. Other alternatives would be BLT2 or Riviera tower2 or, long shot, front of Epcot DVC.

This makes the most sense to me (for what it is worth….lol). FYI, FAM is Facilities Asset Management (which is the literally facilities and maintenance).

 

[T00dles]

Thinking about WL expansion vs a Reflections build...adding more rooms via new construction at an existing resort is cheaper than building an entirely new resort because:

1. Lower Initial Costs: Infrastructure such as utilities, amenities, and transportation is already in place.

2. Operational Efficiency: Existing staff and management can handle the expansion, reducing additional hiring and training costs.

3. Brand and Location Leverage: WL already has a well established reputation and customer base.

4. Faster ROI: The expansion can be completed more quickly, leading to faster revenue generation.

 

[skier_pete]

I cannot believe they would build more DVC at Wilderness Lodge unless it was converting more rooms over. It's not a "prime" location and they currently will have a dearth of locations for sale for the next 3-4 years. I would be shocked if we get a new DVC location announced at D23. Disney is almost always very secretive about new DVC locations until construction is underway or sometimes even after that.

 

[Sandisw]

I can say one thing…if whatever happens is a new phase of CCV and not a new resort with restrictions, then I think they will really lose that messaging and maybe end up canning them.

More likely, I bet it is something Added to the trust and combined into the resort use plan for the cabins so all are considered part of the same “home resort”.

 

[sndral]

I cannot believe they would build more DVC at Wilderness Lodge unless it was converting more rooms over. It's not a "prime" location and they currently will have a dearth of locations for sale for the next 3-4 years. I would be shocked if we get a new DVC location announced at D23. Disney is almost always very secretive about new DVC locations until construction is underway or sometimes even after that.

To be fair, Disney did announce details about Reflections at D23 - albeit five years ago in 2019 https://dvcnews.com/resorts/reflections/4557-new-reflections-concepts-showcased-at-d23-expo as a follow up to their 2018 announcement that they were building the resort https://dvcnews.com/resorts/reflect...-nature-inspired-mixed-use-resort-on-bay-lake .
& yes, all that fanfare about Reflections was very different from how secretive DVC had been about new builds in the past. I remember riding the monorail past the under construction BLT & asking a CM what that building was going to be & being told, essentially ‘building, what building.’

 

[Mle8308]

I can say one thing…if whatever happens is a new phase of CCV and not a new resort with restrictions, then I think they will really lose that messaging and maybe end up canning them.

More likely, I bet it is something Added to the trust and combined into the resort use plan for the cabins so all are considered part of the same “home resort”.

This! I think if it is new construction, it will part of the Cabins at FW. May explain why current dues for the FW DVC are so high.

 

[sndral]

I can say one thing…if whatever happens is a new phase of CCV and not a new resort with restrictions, then I think they will really lose that messaging and maybe end up canning them.

More likely, I bet it is something Added to the trust and combined into the resort use plan for the cabins so all are considered part of the same “home resort”.

Much as I’d prefer DVC abandon resale restrictions, adding Reflections to the cabins trust makes sense, I mean why even adopt the trust model for just the cabins &, of course, the cabins are physically close to the proposed Reflections build site. I’m not a fan of the trust either.

 

[skier_pete]

To be fair, Disney did announce details about Reflections at D23 - albeit five years ago in 2019 https://dvcnews.com/resorts/reflections/4557-new-reflections-concepts-showcased-at-d23-expo as a follow up to their 2018 announcement that they were building the resort https://dvcnews.com/resorts/reflect...-nature-inspired-mixed-use-resort-on-bay-lake .
& yes, all that fanfare about Reflections was very different from how secretive DVC had been about new builds in the past. I remember riding the monorail past the under construction BLT & asking a CM what that building was going to be & being told, essentially ‘building, what building.’

No I'm not saying they wouldn't announce at D23, but i just think with 4 months to go before Poly opens, they will not announce ANYTHING new for DVC. They will want to focus on Poly sales and not have people distracted by another new location coming. If we get anything from D23 it will be more Poly details and an on-sale date for current and new members.

 

[hhisc16]

DVC Fan has an article out now about this.

 

[Economouse]

I read Tom Bricker’s post yesterday, and at the time I thought he was getting a little worked up over nothing. But the new permits are interesting. I’m confused though, aren’t the cabins fairly easy to book, like poly bungalows b/c they’re so point heavy? CCV/BRV are really only difficult to book during the holidays, so I can’t imagine they would build more right now with so many DVC points to sell between other resorts.
I’m biased b/c this is my favorite resort, but I don’t think they would mess with the theming/lobby too much. It’s too fantastic. Nor do I think they would convert it all to DVC. Although I definitely would be thrilled if they added a club level to DVC like AKJ, WL CL is really good IMO.
Most importantly, I selfishly don’t want the eventual news to bump up resale prices, I’ve got my eye on a contract here in the next 6 months or so.

Cabins are fairly easy to book most of the time, but because the are so point heavy, Disney could direct sale a ton of more points without a massive building expense. To your point this could result in a poly situation where members have a ton of CCV point, but now no one can get into the studios or 1brs.

Ideal situation would be reflections or a tower adding more variety like they did at Poly.

 

[sndral]

Cabins are fairly easy to book most of the time, but because the are so point heavy, Disney could direct sale a ton of more points without a massive building expense. To your point this could result in a poly situation where members have a ton of CCV point, but now no one can get into the studios or 1brs.

Ideal situation would be reflections or a tower adding more variety like they did at Poly.

Too many cabins! I assume you’re referencing the CCV cascade cabins


rather than the new Ft. Widerness ‘cabins.’

As originally announced Reflections included cabinesque structures on stilts.

 

[BrianLo]

Thread being updated thanks to @sndral ‘s sleuthing. Appears addresses accelerate eastward on western way which is different than Timberline. Call off the dogs.

 

[BrianLo]

View attachment 882444

I don’t remember this concept art. But looks much more like a one bedroom. I think having an aspirational one bedroom priced like a two would be an interesting product and no where near as egregious as the bungalows etc on the inventory.

 

[smileyanna]

Thread being updated thanks to @sndral ‘s sleuthing. Appears addresses accelerate eastward on western way which is different than Timberline. Call off the dogs.

Sorry - I don’t understand the implication. Does this means it’s more likely these permits are for cabins connected to FW? Or this is the bridge to future Reflections?

(small CCV contract owner here, hoping it’s not more CCV cabin points that will be chasing studios)

 

[Disney_escape]

I can say one thing…if whatever happens is a new phase of CCV and not a new resort with restrictions, then I think they will really lose that messaging and maybe end up canning them.

More likely, I bet it is something Added to the trust and combined into the resort use plan for the cabins so all are considered part of the same “home resort”.

If that is a viable option, why not do that with the new Poly Tower?

 

[Sandisw]

If that is a viable option, why not do that with the new Poly Tower?

That’s the point. They didn’t and I think it devalued the message.

So, if they don’t make this potential new project a new one, but an additional phase, it furthers means they are playing semantics with what a “future resort” is

However, they don’t seem to care about the cabins sells, based on lack of real incentives, and I have to wonder if it is because this project, should it happen, will be new.

DVD doesn’t have to keep restrictions in place but they do…and someone know why.

 

[Disney_escape]

That’s the point. They didn’t and I think it devalued the message.

So, if they don’t make this potential new project a new one, but an additional phase, it furthers means they are playing semantics with what a “future resort” is

However, they don’t seem to care about the cabins sells, based on lack of real incentives, and I have to wonder if it is because this project, should it happen, will be new.

DVD doesn’t have to keep restrictions in place but they do…and someone know why.

Ah, I agree it is a terrible policy. And I think it takes away some of what makes DVC different than other time shares, I know the secondary market was a selling point when we first bought (and our first was bought direct).

 

[BrianLo]

Sorry - I don’t understand the implication. Does this means it’s more likely these permits are for cabins connected to FW? Or this is the bridge to future Reflections?

(small CCV contract owner here, hoping it’s not more CCV cabin points that will be chasing studios)

It seems much more certain now that the main news worthy patent, the 18 new builds from WDI is actually Reflections over by River Country. The addresses were very confusing. One of the structures will be a tower hotel. One is pool services, one is also probably a restaurant. A few more could be outdoor structures and we may still see those stilted cabins, but they might actually contain themselves for once and build like 12 of them. The random Timberline address may just be for construction crew offices or staging etc.


The other permit is just a CCV refurb most likely, but much less likely on CCV2 room conversion given the other patent seems to not be related to Wilderness lodge at all. The patent is still a bit unusually long, so there could be a bit more meat to a lobby or restaurant refurb tied in there. But Nothing new is being built for Wilderness lodge. No more cabins. No new tower.

Also pointed elsewhere, we usually see a water permit filed and it was weird this didn't include one. But in actuality the original Reflections SFWD permit was extended and is still valid.

 

[smileyanna]

The other permit is just a CCV refurb most likely, but much less likely on CCV2 room conversion given the other patent seems to not be related to Wilderness lodge at all. The patent is still a bit unusually long, so there could be a bit more meat to a lobby or restaurant refurb tied in there. But Nothing new is being built for Wilderness lodge. No more cabins. No new tower.

Also pointed elsewhere, we usually see a water permit filed and it was weird this didn't include one. But in actuality the original Reflections SFWD permit was extended and is still valid.

Thank you! Super interesting