Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[DrunkJam]

I haven't gone crazy buying hand sanitiser and toilet roll, because a) we don't use a LOT of hand sanitiser, and we do already have a supply, for occasional use b) I have been storing TP since Brexit was announced, most of our wood pulp comes from europe.
I HAVE gone and bought a couple extra packets of OTC painkillers, which are getting super hard to find, and made sure we have plenty of basics in, including vitamin supplements as well as non perishable food, but nothing more than a usual stock up.
We ALWAYS have a lot of anti-bac soap in because we already know that hand washing is SUPER important (the anti bac is not crucial, but it makes me feel better)
I have also made sure to fill any outstanding prescriptions (DS takes daily loratadine, and we both need to keep Salbutamol on hand) and book any routine health appointments for this /next week, so, we are in the best position we can be in if we need to stay at home for any length of time.

 

[MaC410]

I know this isn't Disney related but it's still relevant to the discussions here...Royal Caribbean just announced a new cancellation policy for any cruise set to sail from now until the end of July 2020. You can now cancel your cruise 48 hours ahead of your sail date and you receive a future cruise credit towards any cruise up until the end of next year. Hopefully it's ok to post the link for anyone who happens to have a cruise booked like I do.

https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruise-with-confidence

 

[HuskieJohn]

DLP closure watch
France announcing 190 new cases + 2 new death in todays update
Total of 613 confirmed cases and 9 deaths in France as of now = 1.46% death rate.


I think the death rate can be as low as .6% using South Korea's best practices of excellent testing response, public communication, public cooperation and being on top of this medically before it got out of hand. Still .6% is much worse than regular Flu and even with SK outstanding response they are still in endanger of it overwhelming their medical capacity.


Using the DLP daily attendance average of 40k guest per day along with the low South Korea CFR at 0.6% CFR gives us a theoretical maximum 240 dead guests per day...within 3 weeks of exposure that is. Now its doubtful that EVERYONE would become exposed & become sick if only 1, a handful or even hundreds are sick but still that is the risk that Disney has to consider. But best case scenario of just 1 person having active COVID who givings exposure to 1% of the park attendees (400 other people) that still results in 2.4 deaths per day not to mention the likelyhood of CMs getting it and spreading it wider.


I would be surprised if Disney legal doesn't shut down DLP in some fashion by the end of the weekend.

As for the Bean counter side I would also not be surprised if they close the park to people who are not staying onsite and low level annual pass holders to at least reduce their risk numbers while still staying open.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Some more data from Lombardy.
Total cases in Italy today are 3916
In Lombardy there are
2612 infected so +361 from yesterday
1677 of these are in hospital
309 in Icu +65 from yesterday
469 in quarantine
135 dead

Age division is as follows
36% are over 75
20% 65-74
25% 50-64
17% 25-49
1% 18-24
1%less than 18

Additionally I attached the map of how the virus has grown from the 21st of Feb to the 5th of March.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

One important point they said is that if before they were getting ready to create 3 hospitals just for COVID-19 patients now they are doing all hospitals for covid and only keeping 3/4 for other emergencies.... This is how bad it's getting, they also said that if they don't start taking more drastic mesuraments the whole of Lombardy will be red in the next two weeks our CDC is thinking to make the whole of Lombardy a red quarantined area. As people are not taking it seriously enough and keep going on holidays and out etc. The false interpretation that its just a "flu" is causing people to not take it seriously enough.

Last thing I found out why the death rate in Italy is so much higher than SKorea. They have moved from their initial approach of testing everyone to only testing those with symptoms. Instead I still think A Korea tests asymptomatics?

 

[QueenElinor]

I have also made sure to fill any outstanding prescriptions (DS takes daily loratadine, and we both need to keep Salbutamol on hand) and book any routine health appointments for this /next week, so, we are in the best position we can be in if we need to stay at home for any length of time.

This seems like a really good thing to do, not just in case of quarantine but also because drug shortages may happen, so much is made in China and India (India has said they are going to be keeping many of their medications for Indians right now).

As people are not taking it seriously enough and keep going on holidays and out etc. The false interpretation that its just a "flu" is causing people to not take it seriously enough.

Last thing I found out why the death rate in Italy is so much higher than SKorea. They have moved from their initial approach of testing everyone to only testing those with symptoms. Instead I still think A Korea tests asymptomatics?

That whole thing about "It's just a flu" or "The flu is worse" is going to make a lot of news organizations look pretty stupid, but unfortunately, it may result in a lot of illness. Just because some journalists didn't take the time to understand what exponential growth and relative risk is.

Korea tests everyone they can. They even have drive-through testing. Just stick your head out the window and it's done! I still don't believe their CFR, though. It takes about three weeks from infection to demise. We'll see where that stat is in a few weeks. Just because they've found asymptomatic cases, does not mean those people will stay that way. Most authorities don't think that there are many asymptomatic cases, and results from China tend to support that. What the Koreans are doing is just catching people early in the course of the disease.

 

[10CJ]

There was an Obama-era reg that wasn't lifted til Sunday...so it was probably one hand (the CDC) not talking to the other (local hospitals)...

I’m sorry, I tried to find this regulation that was lifted on Sunday. What is it?

This is not true, details here
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-misplaced-blame-on-obama-for-coronavirus-tests/

 

[TwoMisfits]

I know it's not Disney, but the 2nd Princess cruise ship news is probably gonna lead to a pause in US cruising come Saturday after Pence's meeting...it's not good...

 

[QueenElinor]

I know it's not Disney, but the 2nd Princess cruise ship news is probably gonna lead to a pause in US cruising come Saturday after Pence's meeting...it's not good...

Whoa, where did you hear that? I thought a pause was coming, but not quite so soon.
(I will say the epidemiologists on twitter are dumfounded that any ships are still sailing).

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Whoa, where did you hear that? I thought a pause was coming, but not quite so soon.
(I will say the epidemiologists on twitter are dumfounded that any ships are still sailing).

At the moment there are two cruises with quarantined staff in Genova and naples and a Costa cruise that cannot find a port somewhere near Seychelles

 

[hnthomps]

Whoa, where did you hear that? I thought a pause was coming, but not quite so soon.
(I will say the epidemiologists on twitter are dumfounded that any ships are still sailing).

“On the other side of the country in D.C., the Trump administration is considering ways to discourage U.S. travelers from taking cruises as part of a broader Trump administration effort to limit the spread of coronavirus, according to four officials familiar with the situation.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/vp-...ast-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus.html

 

[QueenElinor]

“On the other side of the country in D.C., the Trump administration is considering ways to discourage U.S. travelers from taking cruises as part of a broader Trump administration effort to limit the spread of coronavirus, according to four officials familiar with the situation.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/vp-...ast-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Yikes!
21 people positive on the Grand Princess. And we know there've already been at least 2 deaths. I can't say that I blame them.

They are going to test all 3500 people. I hope they do it quickly and get them off the ship, or maybe they can make an actual working quarantine this time.

At the moment there are two cruises with quarantined staff in Genova and naples and a Costa cruise that cannot find a port somewhere near Seychelles

This is just going to keep happening more and more. But what a tragedy for everyone employed by the cruise industry, and all the port cities if it gets shut down. Honestly, unless we had an instant and accurate tests, I don't see any other way. Norovirus is one thing. This is a whole 'nother ball game, as my dad would say.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Yikes!
21 people positive on the Grand Princess. And we know there've already been at least 2 deaths. I can't say that I blame them.

They are going to test all 3500 people. I hope they do it quickly and get them off the ship, or maybe they can make an actual working quarantine this time.


This is just going to keep happening more and more. But what a tragedy for everyone employed by the cruise industry, and all the port cities if it gets shut down. Honestly, unless we had an instant and accurate tests, I don't see any other way. Norovirus is one thing. This is a whole 'nother ball game, as my dad would say.

Pardon my ignorance but why can't they copy the S Korean tests I thought they worked well? Or not?

 

[QueenElinor]

Pardon my ignorance but why can't they copy the S Korean tests I thought they worked well? Or not?

They're not fast enough. All of these tests take time to run, and they're not cheap. The South Koreans can get your sample at a drive-in, but they can't do the test there. As far as I know, all are PCR-based tests, which basically is a chemical reaction that occurs to amplify the viral RNA, then bind a marker to it. These can take hours to run.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

If cruises are about to be shut down then theme parks likely aren’t far behind.

 

[QueenElinor]

If cruises are about to be shut down then theme parks likely aren’t far behind.

Well, ships are uniquely bad in terms of propagating viruses, but mass gatherings are not good either. So yep, not far behind. Which makes me wonder about the National Parks, which are a big part of my state's economy. Old Faithful in June is every bit as bad as WDW. I know they've had norovirus outbreaks there in the past.

 

[TwoMisfits]

Whoa, where did you hear that? I thought a pause was coming, but not quite so soon.
(I will say the epidemiologists on twitter are dumfounded that any ships are still sailing).

Cruise boards are discussing the possibility b/c it seems inevitable...apparently that new ship is the cause of multiple outbreaks in multiple states on land from its last cruise - plus a new 3500 person possible outbreak on the current one, with 19 crew and 2 passengers already infected out of 45 tested...and with that many crew, it's gonna be almost certain that numbers will be very bad once everyone is tested and over the next 2-3 weeks as people come down with it from past exposures...

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Do you know which Caribbean cruise was this one. I had never heard anything until now he has died

 

[mshanson3121]

Some more data from Lombardy.
Total cases in Italy today are 3916
In Lombardy there are
2612 infected so +361 from yesterday
1677 of these are in hospital
309 in Icu +65 from yesterday
469 in quarantine
135 dead

Age division is as follows
36% are over 75
20% 65-74
25% 50-64
17% 25-49
1% 18-24
1%less than 18

Additionally I attached the map of how the virus has grown from the 21st of Feb to the 5th of March.

Is this breakdown for infected period, or deaths? If deaths, I would like to know what percentage of the 25-49 group had pre-existing health conditions.

 

[mshanson3121]

I'm a little concerned for our local province in Canada. Thus far, 0 cases. However, a high school (2 hours away) had a trip to Italy planned for the March break. And instead of cancelling it - they decided to still go! The mayor of the town, the parents and the school discussed it and said they're still going. Not even a mandatory quarentine when they fly home tomorrow - they just ask that people keep an eye out for symptoms. This decision has a LOT of people ticked off.