As we head into 2010, big name companies that won't survive until 2020?

[Shyvioletisme]

I'm surprised Borders in on that list because I HATE Barnes & Noble, but love Borders, they have a better selection, they hire people who actually know things about books and are just nicer stores...all the barnes and noble stores I've been around have been kinda icky and their member program is pay..I don't like that. Our Borders is always really busy, while our Barnes & Noble is not...it looks that way at first because it is in the mall, but most people do not stop in and buy anything there, they just use it as a mall entrance.

 

[golfgal]

See, I did not know that. I don't know anyone who uses Netflix for anything other than ordering it by mail. Everyone I know who uses the "on-demand" system uses it through their own cable system. I absolutely agree with watching movies on small things like iPhones - it seems only kids and teens like to do that. But, I know quite a few that watch on their computer moniters - both movies and TV shows they missed the night before.

Interesting list and idea, Papa Deuce. I do hope you take print out a list of these so you can look back in 10 years and see if anyone was correct on any of these. And, who knows, maybe you can post how right or wrong we were in whatever format the DISboards exists in that time!

Not everyone has cable--we have satellite and no on-demand movies--Pay Per View, but not on-demand (i.e. free) ones like we had when we had cable. I just looked at that Roku thing and I would SO use that much more than I would ever use traditional Netflix--getting the DVD's in the mail.

I love JC Penney's, but I see it and Macy's going under before Sears. Sears has the automotive/tools dept. and the appliance section that I think would keep it afloat. There just isn't much competition in the "tool" dept. Yeah, you can go out and buy the complete Snap On line for a total of $65,000 (and that's at half off), at the school my son will be attending next year (University of Northwestern Ohio). Of course that's the extreme, but Snap On is easily 3 to 4 times more expensive than Craftsman. And, Craftsman comes with a lifetime warranty (I don't think they do if used professionally though).

Personally, I can't stand Macy's, so I hope it goes out and let's JC Penney standing.

Burger King CANNOT go under either. Shame on whoever said that.

Starbucks isn't even in our area. We were going to get a store, but they decided against it 2 years ago. They then pulled the one out of our mall. I don't drink that stuff anyway, so it wouldn't matter to me. My daughter was devastated though.

I could see Gap going under, but not the more inexpensive Old Navy. I don't shop in either, but no one goes to Gap anymore in our area.

Hollister, Abercrombie, PacSun, Buckle, Victoria's Secret, American Eagle, etc... I see them ALL sticking around for a LONG time. They certainly aren't the cheapest stores on the block, but they prove, it's not always about the almighty dollar. People are willing to pay for things they want.

Macy's at the Mall of America is a great store, the ones where they took over other departments stores, not so much. Hollister, Abercrombie, etc will all go the way of Gap eventually because they are trendy and unless they keep up with the trends or reinvent themselves they will be gone. When I was in high school EVERYONE shopped at Limited--now teens wouldn't be caught dead in there but it is a place you find a lot of young adults. Gap has been around for years and years and will reinvent itself or die. Old Navy will go out before Gap I think.

ah...2020..my eyes thought it was the end of 2010.
That said, now that the guessing is until 2020, I haven't a clue.

I thought it said 2010 too--2020 makes a HUGE difference.

As for the Starbucks debate--that was the business plan all along--over build for an area so no competition moves in, build up a clientele for an area, close the extra stores effectively locking out competition.

 

[eliza61]

I think I'd bet on Macy's before Sears. I think Macys will go under except their flagstaff store on 34st.

My dh works for Sunoco oil refinery. It will be gone or brought out by some one else.

 

[suzannen]

I don't either. Combine Netflix with Redbox and what more does one really need?

Okay, N. Bailey, I've already learned alot on this thread about Netflix, but what the heck is Redbox - I've never even heard of that? And, here, we New Yorkers always think we know everything!

 

[AshleyW]

Okay, N. Bailey, I've already learned alot on this thread about Netflix, but what the heck is Redbox - I've never even heard of that? And, here, we New Yorkers always think we know everything!

Redbox is basically like a vending machine for movies. They're big, well.. red boxes. You put in a credit card, and you get charged $1 per night, per movie. They're (for the most part) all new releases, too. It's kind of a neat concept. We have them in a lot of grocery stores around here, and in some McDonald's.

 

[DarthKTrava]

I'm surprised Borders in on that list because I HATE Barnes & Noble, but love Borders, they have a better selection, they hire people who actually know things about books and are just nicer stores...all the barnes and noble stores I've been around have been kinda icky and their member program is pay..I don't like that. Our Borders is always really busy, while our Barnes & Noble is not...it looks that way at first because it is in the mall, but most people do not stop in and buy anything there, they just use it as a mall entrance.

I only shop at Barnes and Nobles when I can use my Mom's membership card. There's one cashier who's more interested in trying to sell me a membership, I don't shop when she's working.

I like the Borders' program better. It's FREE, they send coupons thru my email box AND I get Borders Bucks periodically.

 

[bunkkinsmom]

Yes, Starbucks closed many stores. They expanded into too many areas and then went outside their product line and tried to offer ridiculous stuff that was not coffee, like music cds.

Over four months ago, Starbucks developed and launched the first new instant coffee in like twenty years. No other instant coffee had been developed since those nasty instant coffees: Nescafe & Taster's Choice.

Starbucks had free instant coffee taste tests during their instant coffee launch. I tried it twice during this time. I could definitely tell it was instant because it is a much weaker body coffee.

The second tasting, I asked the barista to purposely make the coffee much stronger as that's how I usually like my coffee and I wanted to know how it would hold up.

Again, as a real coffee connaisseur, I could tell the difference in the body of the coffee. It was slightly weaker, lacked the oils & body of a fresh brewed coffee. BUT, the taste was very close to the Starbuck's brewed coffee. It did NOT taste like the horrible Nescafe & Taster's Choice.

There is a definite market for this new Starbucks instant coffee. I asked the barista if they still receive Starbucks stocks as part of working for Starbucks. He said yes. I told him to hang onto his stocks as they will go back up. I was right.

If you click on the chart below and see the sharp rise in stocks mid July, Starbucks stocks is definitely on the rise again. It they stick to coffee products, which is their expertise, they should be fine.

Starbucks stock chart

I have been a Starbucks manager for 6 years. I can tell you with CERTAINTY, Starbucks is not going under. Sales are up, stock is up, and as a company they have reduced spending like you would not believe. Don't count on the same management staff being around, but they will survive. They will survive because they have and are changing their structure and belief system. When I started it was all about the parnters, the customers, and the experience. Now it is all about the numbers. And for that, they will survive. Those managers who work and/or worked for the company because of how they were treated and the integrity of the company are a dying breed. Among the layoffs during the store closings were 16 year partners. People who have received President's Awards. The man who opened the East Coast as DC's first District Manager was given a severance. People thought when Howard took back over everything was going to be hunky dorey. Lemme tell you, I've met Jim Donald and he was the DEFINITION of Servant Leader. The people who made the mistakes for Starbucks were the Real Estate folks. No one else.

These layoffs and store closures were great for the company, but make no mistake, the company itself has changed. I made the decision a long time ago that all I can control is what happens inside the 4 walls of my store. We make every effort to continue the Starbucks Experience and start the day for 400 people each time we open the doors. I consider myself blessed to have the job that I have, even though the company has changed so much.

 

[MaumeeMom]

PARTIAL
Not everyone has cable--we have satellite and no on-demand movies--Pay Per View, but not on-demand (i.e. free) ones like we had when we had cable. I just looked at that Roku thing and I would SO use that much more than I would ever use traditional Netflix--getting the DVD's in the mail.

Sorry for hijacking the thread but I have to say that I love, love, love my ROKU box!!

It is small so you can easily move it from TV to TV. When I was recovering from surgery a few weeks ago, we moved it into our bedroom and I loaded the Netflix que with some old favorites - tv shows like Emergency! Murder She Wrote, Numb3rs, etc. and movies like Arsenic & Old Lace, His Girl Friday, etc. All things that I knew well enough that I could watch them through painkiller clouded eyes. There are new movies too but I wanted things that I didn't have to concentrate on to just play to keep me company.

ROKU also has other "Channels" like Amazon.com. We occasionally get codes for free movies from Amazon.

The picture and delivery is great; we've had very few "Buffering" problems.

If you are on the fence about the ROKU, I would encourage you to try it.

Okay, commercial is over, back to the thread...

 

[dis-happy]

My dh keeps telling me that most cars will be electric by 2030 so we'll see corner gas stations and their companies going out of business (yes, adding another 10 years).

 

[Golf4food]

MSN.com had an article about 7 BIG NAME companies that they say will not survive until 2020. They gave their reasons. I'll list them.... and then maybe you can add some that you don't think will last until 2020....

So, which big name companies do you think will be non existent by 2020?

The Federal Government?


Definitely Chrysler, possibly GM - both of which probably should be already, quite frankly. Certainly Chrysler. If they can turn things around (again) it would be an even bigger miracle than before.

Six Flags - don't think I've seen them mentioned yet.

Some of the big airlines, too.

 

[Golf4food]

Sorry for hijacking the thread but I have to say that I love, love, love my ROKU box!!

It is small so you can easily move it from TV to TV. When I was recovering from surgery a few weeks ago, we moved it into our bedroom and I loaded the Netflix que with some old favorites - tv shows like Emergency! Murder She Wrote, Numb3rs, etc. and movies like Arsenic & Old Lace, His Girl Friday, etc. All things that I knew well enough that I could watch them through painkiller clouded eyes. There are new movies too but I wanted things that I didn't have to concentrate on to just play to keep me company.

ROKU also has other "Channels" like Amazon.com. We occasionally get codes for free movies from Amazon.

The picture and delivery is great; we've had very few "Buffering" problems.

If you are on the fence about the ROKU, I would encourage you to try it.

Okay, commercial is over, back to the thread...

In addition to the Roku, don't forget that many Blu-ray players have Netflix streaming ability, too - one box, many functions, including Blu-ray, which is awesome. Ours also now does Cinemanow but we haven't tried them, it was just updated to include it - I know nothing about the service.

 

[kaytieeldr]

I stopped by the Post Office today with one package. To send it parcel post they quoted me $69. UPS charged me $12.75 to have it there on Friday by ground. I'm not sure why the difference was so much, but if that's the norm I can see why they're losing business.

Somewhat OT, I know - but for a parcel post package to cost $69, it would have had to weigh between 69 and 70 pounds and be going to California.

UPS's least expensive price for that weight/destination is $68.90, goes via UPS Ground, and takes five business days. To get that weight package to California by Friday via UPS would cost $274.72.

 

[tar heel]

Starbux is crazy busy here. I have six within a couple miles of my house including two in the same mall. If you want to be laughed at, then by all means say it will be gone in 2010.

McClatchy Newspapers sadly is my DH's employer. The corporation made the huge mistake of taking on massive debt to buy Knight Ridder right before the recession hit. The triple whammy of recession, debt and the restructuring of the newspaper industry is IMO insurmountable.

 

[Sparx]

star bucks boomed before the recession, and their stock was through the roof, and since this recession is nearing its end, i'm sure starbuck's stock will be taking an upturn in the very near future, and many of those 900 closed stores will reopen. recently many people just haven't had the money for a 5.00 cup of coffee, and mcdonald's "mccafe" competition was just too good for many to pass up. but when the economy rises back to where it was, i'm sure starbucks will be back up on top again.

 

[Planogirl]

I'm surprised Borders in on that list because I HATE Barnes & Noble, but love Borders, they have a better selection, they hire people who actually know things about books and are just nicer stores...all the barnes and noble stores I've been around have been kinda icky and their member program is pay..I don't like that. Our Borders is always really busy, while our Barnes & Noble is not...it looks that way at first because it is in the mall, but most people do not stop in and buy anything there, they just use it as a mall entrance.

It's just the opposite here. Barnes & Noble is always packed while you can practically hear echoes in the one Borders we have in the area. I don't know why.

I think that Starbucks will be fine too. They have built a few new ones near us recently and they've really streamlined their menu. As long as they keep their chai tea I'm happy.

Who else will go down? I worry about Pier 1 Imports.

 

[MarkBarbieri]

I think that Six Flags will still be around, but they'll go bankrupt before 2020. The underlying business is a good one, they just have way too much debt as a result of the current owner's leveraged acquisition of the company.

Starbucks will survive. It may be that drinking expensive coffee at coffee shops is a fad, but it won't go away completely. At worst, it will shrink dramatically. Barring a major scandal, I can't see the brand disappearing.

I suspect that a lot of Newspapers will die over the next decade. Their business model doesn't seem to be working anymore.

It's possible that some or all private health insurance companies will be regulated out of existence and be replaced by a national health insurance company, but that would be the result of political rather than market decisions.

I think that the trend towards healthier eating will stress the fast food industry, but it's always hard to predict who will adapt and who will die.

Brick and mortar retail will definitely suffer as more commerce moves online. I don't think this will hurt clothing retailers as much because people are more comfortable trying on clothes. Companies like Best Buy will suffer because the Walmart/Targets of the world will continue to grab their low end business and online retailers will put pressure on margins.

eBay may be vulnerable, but a serious competitor must emerge before they are in danger. Craigslist has taken a big bite for local sales, but eBay is still the dominant player in national used item sales. I actually think PayPal is in more danger than eBay itself. I don't know of many companies as widely hated as PayPal. Surely someone will establish a better online payment model in the next 10 years.

 

[emma'smom]

I agree...Starbucks isn't going anywhere any too soon...the line at our local Starbucks is out the door every morning and very busy all day. The drive-thru line gets so crowded that it blocks traffic.

5.00 cups of coffee are a luxury definitely----but one that many people can still afford when they've given up a lot of other more expensive luxuries. Also, the 1.50 standard coffee is cheaper than many fast food chains (and Panera).

No, I wouldn't. Starbucks???

I personally spend $5 a day - as does every other patron in there, every single morning.

I don't see this happening, IMO.

 

[Papa Deuce]

Starbux is crazy busy here. I have six within a couple miles of my house including two in the same mall. If you want to be laughed at, then by all means say it will be gone in 2010.

McClatchy Newspapers sadly is my DH's employer. The corporation made the huge mistake of taking on massive debt to buy Knight Ridder right before the recession hit. The triple whammy of recession, debt and the restructuring of the newspaper industry is IMO insurmountable.

Right... that's why I said 2020.

 

[NY Disney fan]

I'm surprised Borders in on that list because I HATE Barnes & Noble, but love Borders, they have a better selection, they hire people who actually know things about books and are just nicer stores...all the barnes and noble stores I've been around have been kinda icky and their member program is pay..I don't like that. Our Borders is always really busy, while our Barnes & Noble is not...it looks that way at first because it is in the mall, but most people do not stop in and buy anything there, they just use it as a mall entrance.

I am a Barnes & Noble fanatic (go there 4 days a week) and I have to say that Borders *does* have a better selction of books with better presentation. But B&N's magazine section kicks Border's butt.

 

[paintnolish]

Yeah, Blockbuster needs to go. We sometimes buy used DVDs there and were going to rent one. It was older but was $5 to rent! No way! We use Redbox or our Family Video (much cheaper and always has deals like bogo and stuff) when we want something specific or obscure.
I don't know about Starbucks. They might close some more stores, but I can't see them going out of business. It is an affordable luxury.
Kmart...good riddance! HATE that store. Dirty, crowded, never have what they've advertised. Yuck.