Are all points created equally?

[Yinn]

A point is a point, and as we all know they're not equal. We can take into account whether a point is a direct point, a resale point, a riviera eligible point, a point with specific home resort priority, points with lower expenses, some points end early than others due to contract length. So we've already answered the question, points aren't equal.

Those are all things I took into account, but I realized today - in my quarantined boredom - that I didn't take into account another view. How much is a point worth?

What do I mean by that? Well, a resort reservation costs a specific amount of points. But a resort reservation also costs a specific amount of dollars. So it's pretty easy to do a like for like comparison to determine the value that Disney itself places on a point. Another words if a room costs 10 points on DVC, and Disney charges $100 cash. That's a "value" of $10/point.

Now, this is just a boredom exercise, so I acknowledge this is not a full blown analysis and a hard rule. I just thought it was an interesting perspective on "value".

Sample 1: Adventure Season - Studios
Check-in - September 6, 2020
Check-out - September 13, 2020
*If any locations aren't listed it's because availability wasn't there and I was too lazy to find new dates.

Resort	Room Type	$ to Points Ratio
Boardwalk Villa	Standard	$52.24/point
Animal Kingdom - Kidani	Savanna	$42.58/point
Animal Kingdom - Jambo	Savanna	$41.72/point
Old Key West		$40.00/point
Riviera	Standard	$39.63/point
Bay Lake Tower	Lake	$38.95/point
Riviera	Preferred	$36.87/point
Saratoga Springs		$36.34/point
Copper Creek		$35.88/point
Boulder Ridge Villa		$34.77/point
Polynesian	Standard	$33.71/point

 

[Yinn]

Sample 2: Adventure Season - 1 BR
Check-in - September 6, 2020
Check-out - September 13, 2020
*If any locations aren't listed it's because availability wasn't there and I was too lazy to find new dates.

Resort	Room Type	$ to Points Ratio
Animal Kingdom - Jambo	Value	$32.47/point
Animal Kingdom - Jambo	Standard	$31.40/point
Boardwalk Villa	Standard	$31.17/point
Riviera	Standard	$28.27/point
Animal Kingdom - Kidani	Standard	$27.63/point
Animal Kingdom - Kidani	Savanna	$25.63/point
Bay Lake Tower	Lake	$25.48/point
Saratoga Springs		$25.09/point
Riviera	Preferred	$24.67/point
Beach Club Villas		$24.37/point
Old Key West		$23.49/point
Boulder Ridge Villa		$22.66/point

 

[Yinn]

Sample 3: Adventure Season - 2 BR
Check-in - September 6, 2020
Check-out - September 13, 2020
*If any locations aren't listed it's because availability wasn't there and I was too lazy to find new dates.

Resort	Room Type	$ to Points Ratio
Animal Kingdom - Kidani	Standard	$34.89/point
Copper Creek		$33.37/point
Riviera	Standard	$33.33/point
Animal Kingdom - Kidani	Savanna	$33.00/point
Bay Lake Tower	Lake	$31.23/point
Riviera	Preferred	$29.91/point
Boulder Ridge		$28.52/point
Old Key West		$27.75/point
Saratoga Springs		$27.40/point

 

[Yinn]

Generally speaking based on this limited look, if you're someone who stays in a studio; you will break even quicker on your points.

A single cash stay at a BWV studio during that timeframe would cover 40% of a BWV resale contract. (**Based on 1 year average of various resale broker reports)

It gets even more interesting with some of the cheaper contracts. Of course a studio at BWV is near impossible with these contracts, but if you do manage to snag a BWV studio using a SSR contract. Two stays at BWV studios and you've covered the capital cost of the contract.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I love this! I guess my only question would be if you factored in any discount. Most people don't pay straight up rack rates...

We will break even on our DIRECT contract purchased in 2017 with our 3rd DVC trip in BWV standard studios using a comparison based on our "normal" stay at POR with a discount. We have successfully completed 2 trips so far. Love it!

Now looking to add on somewhere! This is helpful! Thanks

 

[SL6827]

This is the thing about DVC and it really makes me think more. When I owned my whopping 40 point contract for like a year, it was a home resort of OKW. I got in one night at the BCVs, two nights in a club level studio at AKL, and four nights at SSR in a standard studio. BCVs was an upgrade, AKL-CL was a heck of an upgrade and SSR broke even in terms of worth to me.

And if I were ever to jump back in, which I won't, I don't think, (but I have learned to never say never) I would love to own at BCVs, another small contract. But would I want to use those most valuable points to sleep around? That might be hard to do. But I would want to sleep around.

 

[igrsod]

There is no doubt to me that my AKL contract that costs me $10 per point.... is a savings. You basically are prepurchasing a big disney discount... and I'm ok with that.
I have never done the analysis that you just did, but it makes sense and was a fun exercise.

 

[sethschroeder]

The one thing to account for though is the discounts. I factor in all cost savings with 30-35% off rack rate.

 

[TandemShoehorns]

The one thing to account for though is the discounts. I factor in all cost savings with 30-35% off rack rate.

So this means the times of the year in which you travel have cash rooms available at 30-35% discount? It's been quite a while since we stayed in a cash room. Do they add taxes? I wonder if that figures into the tables above. I wonder if it even matters? I maintain a spreadsheet of my previous stays that roughly tracks an equivalent cash stay, a cash stay with a discount, and a point stay using rented points. I've never considered the "value" of points used at different resorts.

 

[Yinn]

I love this! I guess my only question would be if you factored in any discount. Most people don't pay straight up rack rates...

We will break even on our DIRECT contract purchased in 2017 with our 3rd DVC trip in BWV standard studios using a comparison based on our "normal" stay at POR with a discount. We have successfully completed 2 trips so far. Love it!

Now looking to add on somewhere! This is helpful! Thanks

It does not, it’s only using rack rates. There’s just too many variations between regular discounts, pixie discounts, free dining, use of gift cards, etc. to try to factor it all in.

The one thing to account for though is the discounts. I factor in all cost savings with 30-35% off rack rate.

Its a valid point, but everyone’s circumstance is different. Some DVC members might benefit heavily from a Gold pass as an example. Some may not. It’s easy enough to multiply all the above numbers bya discount to get those numbers. BWV would come out to $33.96/pt at a 35% discount. Using average resale prices, thats 26% of the purchase price. So breakeven would move from the 3rd trip to the 4th. Not a huge difference when viewed that way.

I went crazy with my own spreadsheet taking into account inflation, opportunity cost, gift card usage, credit card cash back, etc. just thought this was an interesting view.

Here’s another view of the data as well. There’s been a couple should I upgrade from standard to savanna view threads. Is it worth it? Subjectively I would say it’s worth it. Objectively, there’s less value per point to upgrade.

So this means the times of the year in which you travel have cash rooms available at 30-35% discount? It's been quite a while since we stayed in a cash room. Do they add taxes? I wonder if that figures into the tables above. I wonder if it even matters? I maintain a spreadsheet of my previous stays that roughly tracks an equivalent cash stay, a cash stay with a discount, and a point stay using rented points. I've never considered the "value" of points used at different resorts.

The numbers I used were inclusive of tax.

 

[sethschroeder]

So this means the times of the year in which you travel have cash rooms available at 30-35% discount?

No it means you never know what Disney will do and if I could get a 30-35% by traveling a month earlier or later I would. I haven't paid cash in a long time though.

It would also semi account for any free dining offering although it's not exact math.

BWV would come out to $33.96/pt at a 35% discount. Using average resale prices, thats 26% of the purchase price.

Then you need to account for a 7.36/point MF which shifts upwards per year as well.

So that pushes it down to $26.60/pt compared to $110-$130 buyin right now on resale.

To make it more convoluted you can also account for DVC rental with $16-$19/point to rent and the downside to renting.

 

[Yinn]

Then you need to account for a 7.36/point MF which shifts upwards per year as well.

So that pushes it down to $26.60/pt compared to $110-$130 buyin right now on resale.

To make it more convoluted you can also account for DVC rental with $16-$19/point to rent and the downside to renting.

If you really want to over complicate it (I did) then you would calculate ALL annual due increases and historic values, including the subsidized dues that are rare. You’d comb through annual reports; heck there’s even a post on here about my concern around aging animals, vet bills and their impact on annual dues. You’d take into account recent renovation dates to try to model surge increases. Yes I went nuts on that on my giant spreadsheet.

Then if you go down that line, you have to account for the annual increases in cash prices per year. Both in the place where you normally stay (AoA for me) as well as where you would stay. Which I also did in my giant spreadsheet.

But wait! There’s more. What about cash value of something like free dining? Yup. Took that into account too in the massive spreadsheet. Including the last 3 years of cash free dining trips. I literally have a picture of EVERY snack credit receipt on my phone But if you’re going to do that, you have to take into account Tables in Wonderland eligibility and discounts along with Gold Pass discounts. Check and check.

Renting? Took that into account too. I ran a 10 year history on rental prices from multiple brokers as the easy way, and then calculated a private rental to see what would bring in.

Is that enough? No. Because most don’t keep their contracts. They trade it in, or they grow tired of it. So I took into account contract decay using options contracts and time value as a model But also taking into account historical direct price increases as that has an effect on resale prices. Once you factor in resale, you know your true cash equivalent

But if we’re going to take into account resale, you can’t forget about ROFR. So yes, I evaluated month by month the last 3 years of ROFR to know my best offer. Plus, compared them to direct prices to figure out what are Disney’s ROFR thresholds.

But just when we thought we were done, we forgot opportunity and investment cost. Do we use a safe investment? How about a guaranteed CD or a treasury bond? Or do we use a bull market or long term market average? But then it depends on where in the market and economic cycle we’re in. And goes back to the holding period of the DVC contract.

I’ve taken a LOT into account when I bought my contract. I’m not trying to get into this analysis being the ultimate hard rule. This analysis isn’t even near complete as it doesn’t take into account the other season. And it will be outdated when the 2021 points chart kicks in.

Still reading? Most people aren’t, which is why I didn’t want to get into all that.

This isn’t meant to cover all of it, everyone’s situation will be different. Maybe you’ll cook with a DVC. Maybe you drive and use free parking. Maybe you try the trick to get the pixie discount offer. Maybe you buy coupons for free BJs memberships so you can buy discounted Disney gift cards, but only after you’ve opened a credit card with a special bonus that now gives you 15% cash back plus an extra 5% cash back but only between a full moon and a blue moon and when your toes are red. This isn’t trying to account for all of that.

So what is it for? Nothing. As I stated in my original post “I just thought it was an interesting perspective on "value".

So take it from there. Apply it to whatever situations and calculation that applies to you. Or..don’t. And read it at face value. Who cares what the actual numbers say. Maybe the message to someone is that BWV Studio is the best value. Maybe to someone else, it’s that AKL Jambo is a better value than AKL Kidani. To another, perhaps it’s IDGAF that BRV 1BR is a horrendous “value”, I love it during holidays. They would all be valid because at the end of the day this is just a perspective. And we’ll justify our purchase.

 

[sethschroeder]

Still reading? Most people aren’t, which is why I didn’t want to get into all that.

My only thing if you read most of my posts on here is supplying incomplete information on the DVC side of things is bad. When it comes to Resorts or Theme Parks threads making it a just a small tid bit is great. I think on here not talking about all those extras though makes new comers thing "hey i can break even in 2-3 years lets buy" and is more akin to DVC Direct sales tactics.

At the same time I also fall in to the "its your responsibility to know what you bought" group so maybe that is contradictory or maybe not?

Just know I was not trying to give you a hard time but more so was trying to leave a lurker with possibly more questions that they look up some of the other threads to investigate further.

 

[dsnymnkyuncle]

As a further complication let me add that the price of SSprings this January was higher for resale prices than the price paid at direct purchase all those years ago. Thanks to Disney for raising the costs of new resorts.

 

[sethschroeder]

As a further complication let me add that the price of SSprings this January was higher for resale prices than the price paid at direct purchase all those years ago. Thanks to Disney for raising the costs of new resorts.

The biggest thing people forget to account for is Disney increasing its prices. I know people are all doom and gloom right now but the current state of things will end, Disney will do some short run discounting, and then prices will be on that rise again.

If anything I think Travel is going to be a bigger not smaller part of people's life in the coming years. As they can afford it (or not) they are going to see the benefit of having that vacation time after being locked down for so long.

I would like to think more people will now save and have emergency funds but I am being realistic.

 

[TandemShoehorns]

So what is it for? Nothing. As I stated in my original post “I just thought it was an interesting perspective on "value".

Agreed. Though, you could probably start a business, supplying your ROFR spreadsheet to prospective buyers. And I couldn't help but wonder if you have prepared a spreadsheet considering the relative value of menu items that qualify for the Dining Plan?

 

[Yinn]

Agreed. Though, you could probably start a business, supplying your ROFR spreadsheet to prospective buyers. And I couldn't help but wonder if you have prepared a spreadsheet considering the relative value of menu items that qualify for the Dining Plan?

Unfortunately..I have. But there are also a lot of dining plan spreadsheets out there as well.

The data is always point in time, so I might go nuts refreshing data. I’m a data geek and always will be and will make my decisions off of it. But one constant is that I’ll always go overboard on “value” (ie, getting lamb when I didn’t want lamb) And then correct the other way and learn to just enjoy it. The dining plan is best enjoyed as a peace of mind vs a value thing.

ROFR triggers hover around 60% of direct pricing. Slight variation per resort based on demand and time of year. And yes, how a contract is structured with dues, available points matter (sadly I had $ values on them) But I was very comfortable making a PVB offer at 55% pricing. I think point in time I had PVB at a low limit of 50%. The economics are important too, I doubt Disney will be exercising much if any right now as an example.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

If you really want to over complicate it (I did) then you would calculate ALL annual due increases and historic values, including the subsidized dues that are rare. You’d comb through annual reports; heck there’s even a post on here about my concern around aging animals, vet bills and their impact on annual dues. You’d take into account recent renovation dates to try to model surge increases. Yes I went nuts on that on my giant spreadsheet.

Then if you go down that line, you have to account for the annual increases in cash prices per year. Both in the place where you normally stay (AoA for me) as well as where you would stay. Which I also did in my giant spreadsheet.

But wait! There’s more. What about cash value of something like free dining? Yup. Took that into account too in the massive spreadsheet. Including the last 3 years of cash free dining trips. I literally have a picture of EVERY snack credit receipt on my phone But if you’re going to do that, you have to take into account Tables in Wonderland eligibility and discounts along with Gold Pass discounts. Check and check.

Renting? Took that into account too. I ran a 10 year history on rental prices from multiple brokers as the easy way, and then calculated a private rental to see what would bring in.

Is that enough? No. Because most don’t keep their contracts. They trade it in, or they grow tired of it. So I took into account contract decay using options contracts and time value as a model But also taking into account historical direct price increases as that has an effect on resale prices. Once you factor in resale, you know your true cash equivalent

But if we’re going to take into account resale, you can’t forget about ROFR. So yes, I evaluated month by month the last 3 years of ROFR to know my best offer. Plus, compared them to direct prices to figure out what are Disney’s ROFR thresholds.

But just when we thought we were done, we forgot opportunity and investment cost. Do we use a safe investment? How about a guaranteed CD or a treasury bond? Or do we use a bull market or long term market average? But then it depends on where in the market and economic cycle we’re in. And goes back to the holding period of the DVC contract.

I’ve taken a LOT into account when I bought my contract. I’m not trying to get into this analysis being the ultimate hard rule. This analysis isn’t even near complete as it doesn’t take into account the other season. And it will be outdated when the 2021 points chart kicks in.

Still reading? Most people aren’t, which is why I didn’t want to get into all that.

This isn’t meant to cover all of it, everyone’s situation will be different. Maybe you’ll cook with a DVC. Maybe you drive and use free parking. Maybe you try the trick to get the pixie discount offer. Maybe you buy coupons for free BJs memberships so you can buy discounted Disney gift cards, but only after you’ve opened a credit card with a special bonus that now gives you 15% cash back plus an extra 5% cash back but only between a full moon and a blue moon and when your toes are red. This isn’t trying to account for all of that.

So what is it for? Nothing. As I stated in my original post “I just thought it was an interesting perspective on "value".

So take it from there. Apply it to whatever situations and calculation that applies to you. Or..don’t. And read it at face value. Who cares what the actual numbers say. Maybe the message to someone is that BWV Studio is the best value. Maybe to someone else, it’s that AKL Jambo is a better value than AKL Kidani. To another, perhaps it’s IDGAF that BRV 1BR is a horrendous “value”, I love it during holidays. They would all be valid because at the end of the day this is just a perspective. And we’ll justify our purchase.

You have a great mind. Love the analysis.

What about the value of Moonlight Madness? Epcot lounge?
Or if you bought a loaded resale contract and didn’t pay any extra dues?
Cost per person if you have a larger family (more than 2kids)?
What about if you buy your groceries in your home state and drive them in and they are at least 1/3 less expensive than Florida groceries?
In that vain, saw you mentioned free parking. Easily 10k over the life of the contract, not even accounting for rise in parking cost. You know that Disney hates that they gave that away. We bought just for the free parking. Kind of a spite purchase. We said, “We’re never paying parking fees, ever.” Our last non dvc trip was just under the wire. Lol.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

I love this analysis. In our past four WDW trips, only one didn't include either a RO discount or a FD discount, and I anticipate those kinds of offers being more available if the economy continues to suffer after this pandemic is over. I think rack rates could dip significantly while point charts won't, because there will be a surplus of unused points. And annual dues won't dip either. In the short term, buying even a steeply discounted resale contract might not make the most economic sense, but I guess DVC was always about getting the most value in the long term. I'm not sure that those who expect WDW to bounce back and be in just as high demand in 2021 are being realistic. I think that the only thing that might keep rack prices up is if they restrict inventory by keeping large blocks of rooms off the table.

 

[carli_h]

Love this! Makes me focus on the longer term savings rather than what’s going on now.

I just looked at costings on U.K. website and if we do lose our points we’d make them up in the difference in 2020 dues.

Thank you!