Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?-Analytics (Long)

[JimmyV]

With recent increases in admission prices and the almost simultaneous introduction of "Disney After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic", are people paying more for less? Are the more expensive tickets actually buying you fewer hours in the parks? Now that these two new hard ticket events have been up and running for the better part of a month, I thought I would take a look back, and a glimpse forward to see what the results are. First, a few caveats.

• This analysis looks only at the Magic Kingdom.
• Future projections of operating hours from now until the end of May are based on published hours. It is possible that the actual operating hours will change, but this is not likely since we are midway through May.
• In comparing last year to this year, I did not match up date for date, (April 20 with April 20). Instead, I matched up Sunday to Sunday, Monday to Monday, etc., using the date closest in time to the year before. I started on April 12 for 2015 (trying to keep the Easter influence out of it), and matched that up with April 10 of this year, similarly keeping Easter out of play.
• Last year, Memorial Day fell on May 25. This year, it is on May 30. So when we got to the last week of 2015 in comparison to the last week of May this year, I looked at the numbers two ways. First, I kept the dates in line so that The week of May 24, 2015 matched up against the week of May 22 this year. But then I jumped ahead this year and compared the week of May 24, 2015 to the week of May 29 of this year so that I would capture the impacts of Memorial Day for each year.
• Since the operating hours between 10:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. are constant, I drilled down a layer to look at how the "evening hours" (those after 8:00 p.m.) and the "morning hours" (those before 10:00 a.m.) compared, since these are the hours that would be most affected by the hard ticket events.
• 2015 included a 24 hour event. I included that in the raw results, but also tried to extract that out to make the playing field more level.

Definitions:

• Total "Included" (I) operating hours are those hours available to both on site and off site guests without additional payment.
• Total EMHs are the hours available to on site guests only, either in the a.m. or p.m.
• Total Hard Ticket (HT) hours are those hours for which any guest can pay extra for more time in the park. These include Disney After Hours and Early Morning Magic Hours.

Here are the results, sliced and diced a variety of ways.

For the week of April 12, 2015 compared to April 10, 2016:

2015:
I = 104. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 26. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 8. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
I = 102. EMHs = 3. HT = 3
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 25. EMHs = 2. HT = 3
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 0

So we lost 2 total Included hours in 2016; one early in the morning (as the 8:00 opening time of the MK disappeared this year), and one late at night. In return, guests could buy back those two hours and get a third hour added. EMHs were not impacted at all.

For the week of April 19, 2015 compared to April 17, 2016:

2015:
I = 103. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 25. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 8. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
I = 103. EMHs = 3. HT = 3
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 26. EMHs = 2. HT = 3
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 0

So we lost no Included hours in 2016. This year, we had one extra Included late hour, but one fewer early hour. Again, EMHs were not affected.

For the week of April 26, 2015 compared to April 24, 2016:

2015:
I = 103. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 25. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 8. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
I = 100. EMHs = 3. HT = 5.5
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 23. EMHs = 2. HT = 3
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 2.5

For this week we lost a total of 3 Included hours in 2016; one early in the morning and two late at night. In return, guests could buy back the two lost late hours and get a third hour added. They could also buy back the lost morning hour, and get an extra 15 minutes tacked on if they utilized Early Morning Magic once, or tack on an extra hour and a half if they bought both Early Morning Magic tickets, but I doubt anyone would do this event twice in a single week. (That figures as: the lost hour, plus an additional 15 minutes for that day, plus an additional one hour and 15 minutes for the second day, for a total recapture of the lost hour plus 1.5 hours more).


For the week of May 3, 2015 compared to May 1, 2016:

2015:
I = 104. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 26. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 8. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
I = 100. EMHs = 3. HT = 5.5
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 23. EMHs = 2. HT = 3
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 2.5

For this week we lost a total of 4 Included hours in 2016; one early in the morning and three late at night. In return, guests could buy back the three lost late hours. They could also buy back the lost morning hour, and get the same results as the week before.


For the week of May 10, 2015 compared to May 8, 2016:

2015:
I = 100. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 23. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
I = 100. EMHs = 3. HT = 4.25
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 23. EMHs = 2. HT = 3
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 1.25

Operating hours for this week are all square. Guests lost nothing this year, and could have purchased additional hours if the so choose. However, there was one less Early Morning Magic opportunity.


For the week of May 17, 2015 compared to May 15, 2016:

2015:
Adding in all of the hours for the 24 hour event:
I = 111. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 31. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 10. EMH = 1. HT = 0

Subtracting out the 24 hour event and assuming that it had been a "regular" day:
I = 103. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 25. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 8. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
I = 101. EMHs = 3. HT = 5.5
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 24. EMHs = 2. HT = 3
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 2.5

Obviously the 24 hour event puts 2015 way ahead of 2016. And it is only fair to count that since it was included in the price of admission. But since it was not an annual event, it is also fair to look at this if we assume that it hadn't happened. Even then, we see that Included hours were cut in 2016.


For the week of May 24, 2015 compared to May 22, 2016:

2015:
I = 107. EMHs = 3. HT = 0
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 29. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 8. EMH = 1. HT = 0

2016:
Using the week of May 22 that does not include Memorial Day
I = 101. EMHs = 3. HT = 2.5
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 24. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 2.5

Using the week of May 29 that does include Memorial Day
I = 102. EMHs = 3. HT = 2.5
Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m.-----I = 25. EMHs = 2. HT = 0
Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m.---I = 7. EMH = 1. HT = 2.5

You can see that just like with Easter, the holiday this year looks a lot different than it did last year. Even after you factor in the later week this year that includes Memorial Day, there are fewer hours this year. But Disney After Hours cannot be to blame, as there isn't one currently scheduled for the week of the 22nd or the week of the 29th. It is possible that one will be added. But even after adding the paid-for extra hours, 2016 will still just barely catch 2016, and that assumes the addition of both Early Morning Magic events.

So there you have it, in black and white. Or blue and red. Some weeks, guests are getting pretty much to exactly what they got before. And in every instance, EMHs are not impacted. In other weeks, there is definitely a loss of Included hours, most of which can be bought back. But if the late May trend of shorter hours is coupled with the retirement (or suspension) of DAH, then guests will definitely be getting fewer hours, Included or otherwise, in their vacations.

Hope that helped square some things away.

 

[whiporee]

Thanks Jimmy. That's great stuff.

 

[DisneyFive]

Thank you for this!

Pretty easy to see that, on average, the included parks hours are lower in 2016 than 2015. There isn't one case when 2016 had more hours than 2015. Granted it's only a few percent, but hours are hours, and if this trends for a few years...

Dan

 

[capegirl]

Thanks for the report Jimmy!
I can't wait to see if they offer these events in July/August.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Sorry, but without evidence of causation these stats are meaningless. I have not seen a single instance of park hours changing to allow for these events.

 

[DisneyFive]

Sorry, but without evidence of causation these stats are meaningless. I have not seen a single instance of park hours changing to allow for these events.

Funny, when I was reading the post, causation wasn't even on my mind. (even though it was implied in the title of the thread). I was purely interested in the overall hours offered to guests, regardless of why.

Dan

 

[JimmyV]

Sorry, but without evidence of causation these stats are meaningless.

I wouldn't say "meaningless". There may not be "causation" as you say, but if there isn't then we are left with: "Hours are being cut...just because." You are right that events might not cause the cuts. But something is. And for the paying customer, does the reason matter? When I go to the gas pump, I don't analyze the geopolitical reasons why the price per gallon went up a nickel or down a nickel. I only care that the price moved. So too with park hours.

So in the end, you can #ThanksShanghai; or #ThanksHardTicketEvents; or #ThanksBeancounters. But there is a reason somewhere for reduced hours. But when you look at Grand Total hours (after adding back the Hard Ticket Event hours), things are no worse than they were before if you are an employee and in some cases better, because the CMs don't care if the hour they work is an I, an EMH or a HT. From an accounting standpoint, it would seem that similar total CM hours at greater revenue is a decent explanation of what is going on. But it cannot be proven.

 

[whiporee]

So included hours have been cut, but not significantly an hour or two during the April weeks, up to five for late May.

In other words, everyone has ammunition for their arguments.

For me, I don't think any of the per-pay events have affected them at all, but if they show decent attendance they might in the future. But I don't think they've got enough time to get it going for this summer, so it will probably be more in effect in 2017.

 

[MrInfinity]

Nice stats.

Early Morning Magic Hours... This is new! I've been out of the WDW loop for a while since I've been planning Disneyland... Gonna have to go read up!

I've not liked the idea of selling rope drop or late night time separately. At least not for $69 a person cuz that would run a family of 10, $700. Yet, I can see why they're trying to monetize these times cuz it is a sellable concept and some people will pay for it.

 

[cornflkgrl]

That was a really interesting read. I didn't read anything about causation in there. I thought it was a good feelings/emotion-free analysis of what the actual hours were and are. It is helpful to know for comparison.

 

[ajfd]

I applaud your effort, but have 2 issues:

1) You are only comparing 2015 and 2016. I did a similar comparison of a few different weeks back to 2012 and found that 2016 generally ended up right smack dab in the middle of the data, whereas 2015 was at the high-end.
2) Comparing planned hours (late May 2016) to actual hours (late May 2015) will skew the results.

 

[jbharr1]

And for the paying customer, does the reason matter?

If this is true then why title the thread the way you did? Why not simply say this is an analysis of park hours. The title implies there will be a connection between magic kingdom hours and the new paid events. 7 posts in you say people don't care if there is a connection or not just that hours have changed.

 

[GillianP1301]

Interesting information.

I think one of the main assumptions that you did not capture is that the Operating Hours for 2016 would not have changed (decreased) even without the before and after hours events being added.

 

[JimmyV]

Nice stats.

Early Morning Magic Hours... This is new! I've been out of the WDW loop for a while since I've been planning Disneyland... Gonna have to go read up!

I've not liked the idea of selling rope drop or late night time separately. At least not for $69 a person cuz that would run a family of 10, $700. Yet, I can see why they're trying to monetize these times cuz it is a sellable concept and some people will pay for it.

As for the morning, read more here:
https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/dining/early-morning-magic/

I think the bigger concern for folks is the loss of late night hours that are being sold back for $149 plus tax. (Three hours after closing). Not included in my prior post is another stat, which I will add here:

Total number of nights the park closed at:
10:00 p.m.......2015 = 0; 2016 = 2
11:00 p.m.......2015 = 19 2016 = 24
12:00 a.m.......2015 = 27 2016 = 26
1:00 a.m.........2015 = 4 2016 = 0
24 hour event..2015 = 1 2016 = 0

I think it is the swapping out of the 1:00 a.m. closures in favor of 10:00 p.m. closures that is making people grind their teeth. I don't have a trip planned for June, but I see chatter here that it is getting worse.

 

[JimmyV]

If this is true then why title the thread the way you did?

That's an easy one. To get people to read the thread!
The title didn't purport to come down on one side or the other, and neither did the data. Whiporee is right. There is ammo here for all sides. I report. You decide.

 

[jbharr1]

I also think comparing hours year to year in the spring is dangerous because Easter floats so much.

 

[JimmyV]

1) You are only comparing 2015 and 2016. I did a similar comparison of a few different weeks back to 2012 and found that 2016 generally ended up right smack dab in the middle of the data, whereas 2015 was at the high-end.

It was never my intent to "solve for "x". Anyone who wants can replicate this data back to 1971 for what it's worth. I only have so much time to kill on Amtrak.

2) Comparing planned hours (late May 2016) to actual hours (late May 2015) will skew the results.

This is only true if planned hours do not equal actual hours. With only 15 days left in May, is it realistic to think that planned and operational hours will differ in any material way? Besides, I admitted to that part of the analysis in my opening bullet points, so there is complete transparency on that point.

See above in red.

 

[JimmyV]

I also think comparing hours year to year in the spring is dangerous because Easter floats so much.

See the third bullet point and then look at the first week of data. I intentionally tried to remove Easter from the equation, and I think the first week of data does that. If I went back any further in time to capture Easter, 2015 and then Easter, 2016, it would be a bloodbath. Easter hours in 2015 trounced 2016. But I knew that going in, so I intentionally removed Easter from consideration so that I could gather data for which I had absolutely no preconceived notion.

 

[jbharr1]

I think it is the swapping out of the 1:00 a.m. closures in favor of 10:00 p.m. closures that is making people grind their teeth.

Indeed. Summer months need that late close.

 

[JimmyV]

Indeed. Summer months need that late close.

I agree completely. And I would argue that there should be a 1:00 a.m. thrown in once a week from March through August. There are lots of reports about how great the DAH event is in terms of crowd scarcity. But when the park is open until 1:00 a.m, or evening EMHs go from midnight until 2:00, you pretty much capture that same effect. Not exactly, I admit. But c'mon! How scarce does the crowd have to be? Anyone who complains that they had to wait 2 minutes to ride BTMRR instead of riding it in succession without getting off is making a case that is hard to get behind, IMHO. It would be nice to see more of these "Included" or EMH type of evenings. When EMHs go from 10:00-midnight, (or even 11:00-1:00), it isn't quite the same.