I checked yesterday and AP discounts are only thru April 16 so far. I know the quickest way to find out when the new ones are released is right here on the Dis, so I keep checking this site each day!
Here's what I wrote on the May 2011 Code Watch thread:
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So I'm a bit of a numbers geek and I started taking a look at historical information pertaining to when AP discounts are released. There are two measureable stats that can be used to somewhat predict when a discount comes out:
The amount of time between when discounts are released (from last AP discount release date to the next one)
The amount of time from when the AP discount starts and when the release date is.
The last AP discount came out on Nov. 22, 2010. The maximum, minimum, and average days between the release dates for AP discounts are as follows: 131, 32, 81, respectively. This gives us the following info:
Latest AP discount release date: Apr. 2, 2011
Earliest AP discount release date: Dec. 24, 2011
Average AP discount release date: Feb. 11, 2011
Based on the date when the AP discount was released to the date when it becomes effective gives the following maximum, minimum, average days: 72, 32, 49. This is the number of days from the start of the date range of the discount. The historical stats show that there is almost always (only missing Easter and Christmas) an AP discount of some description. I'd put good money on April 17, 2011 being the next date for an AP discount.
Here is what the numbers show:
Maximum = Feb. 3, 2011
Minimum = Mar. 15, 2011
Average = Feb. 26, 2011
Based on the average date of Feb. 11 and Feb. 26 from the above numbers I would bet that we'll be seeing a discount in the next couple of weeks. Also based on the historical data Wednesday is the most frequent day for releasing the discounts but that wavered in 2010.
Sorry for all of the data but I figured it was worth looking at to try and predict when Disney would release AP discounts. I predict that we will see AP discounts released on Feb. 24, 2011 but that's just what my gut says.
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Since tomorrow is Feb. 24 I'm starting to worry that my "gut feeling" is a little off. I'm now thinking that March 2 is the date to watch for as this date is 46 days out from the next start date of the possible AP discount (Apr. 17). My reasoning behind this is that if someone's trip starts on Apr. 17 their vacation needs to be fully paid for my March 3. On the other hand, there are some pretty amazing general public discounts out right now that cover the date range that we're missing for AP discounts. This would lead me to believe that we may need to wait even longer for an AP discount. Absolute latest I would think that disney would wait to release an AP discount would be March 15 but this is a little on the extreme side.
Hope this helps, sorry for the mass amount of info.
I've been to WDW three times, and I've never been able to score any of these ressies this close to my trip. I have hope that a discount will be out soon!
