Apparently I dislike FP+...alot

[flicx]

They definitely disagree- question is, who is right and there's no way to know except by personal experience. Our experience says touringplans is more accurate- but even personal experience really doesn't tell you an average outlook- it's just one day, at one moment. There are too many factors that could cause whatever it is you see in the parks that day.

I do like touringplans in detail explanation of the workings of fp+.

Went back to find this post, Hmmmm now which is it definitely disagree or come to the same conclusion? Or are we to believe a clone with the same name wrote this?

 

[wisblue]

I can understand if someone complained about a post (did you?) and the moderators delete it, but I didn't receive an IM or anything about it. Which is very strange.

But you made a statement about a "group" of people on these forums that have been frequently and negatively stereotyped by an opposing and equally small group of people.

I am simply pointing out that your statement is as valid when quoted in the opposite. Just as some like to parade an opinion that there is a "very vocal minority opposed to FP+", I submit that there is an equally vocal minority that extol the virtues of FP+.

Visitors relying on these forums for accurate information would be wise to consider that the viewpoints of both represent opposite spectrums.

A direct question. You seemed to be agreeing with flicx earlier in this thread about his interpretation of the easywdw report.

Does that mean that you agree with his approach of adding up all of the differences in the average wait times for the attractions included in the report and concluding that the sum represents the amount of additional time a guest should expect to spend in lines at a park?

Or would you agree with me that that is a flawed conclusion because someone who takes advantage of FPs and uses a sensible touring plan can eliminate the wait times at a number of attractions and enjoy a number of others with wait times below the averages?

To me that is an important part of taking the data in these reports and translating it into how it affects someone's experience in the parks.

 

[Laketravis]

A direct question. You seemed to be agreeing with flicx earlier in this thread about his interpretation of the easywdw report.

Does that mean that you agree with his approach of adding up all of the differences in the average wait times for the attractions included in the report and concluding that the sum represents the amount of additional time a guest should expect to spend in lines at a park?

Or would you agree with me that that is a flawed conclusion because someone who takes advantage of FPs and uses a sensible touring plan can eliminate the wait times at a number of attractions and enjoy a number of others with wait times below the averages?

To me that is an important part of taking the data in these reports and translating it into how it affects someone's experience in the parks.

I believe I've already weighed in on the matter:

One can argue the numbers a million different ways, but the fact is a basic principle of yield management is a more equal (not perfect, mind you) distribution of demand - and in this case, wait times.

The highest demand attractions that also typically experienced the highest wait times will see a modest reduction in wait times, both median and max. Albeit there will still be a long wait but instead of, say, a 90 minute median might be reduced to a 70 minute median and a 120 max might be reduced to a 90 minute max.

The attractions with previously lesser demand (and correspondingly no-to-low wait times) have now been placed into the resource pool and are used to displace the higher demand for more popular attractions. Net result is the previous no-to-low wait times for those attractions WILL rise. In many cases substantially and in some cases double or more.

Does that mean that total aggregate wait time increases? Obviously not for everyone because it depends on what resources they wish to consume. Even if I were to keep track of the total time I spend in lines each day in the next three weeks when I'm there, I did not do that previously so I have no basis to compare to. My suspicion is that it depends on how many of the secondary attractions are utilized - a possibility I believe is substantially increased for me because rather than utilize multiple FP's on one high-demand attraction, I will be spending more time on secondary attractions than I previously have.

Therefore, I will most likely be standing in what is now a longer line more times than I have before.

 

[Luckybee]

Of course if you don't want to stand in lines, The Wizarding World is not the place you want to be.

That aside, I would highly recommend the Wizarding World for anyone who loves Harry Potter.

Uhhhh...we did U a couple of weeks ago to check it out for the first time in yrs. We did a 1 night stay at Loews Portofino which was absolutely hands down one of the nicest if not the nicest hotel in Orlando we've tried (and we've done most of the luxury properties), for a fraction of the price of the D deluxes. We did both parks on the 2 days , and of course had express pass(which is also available for purchase if you are not staying on property) for all the non HP attractions which meant 0 waiting for those. Dh and I do not do lines but I expected some with HP. We waited a grand total of 15 minutes for Hogswart express at 4 in the afternoon day 1 and I waited about 10 minutes for Gringotts (would have been shorter if I had done the single rider line but I wanted to see the bank with dh). Forbidden J was a walk on for me in single rider line. This is at the same time as Small World having a 45 minute wait for standby.
Disney has U beat in the nostalgia(I grew up with D)dep't. But pls you cannot compare waits between the parks.

 

[cakebaker]

The reason you don't want it rehashed is because you are giving out incorrect information. Touring plans had 15 attractions with lower times and 8 higher, and easywdw had 22 higher and 5 lower on average for high and low seasons, but somehow these numbers lead one to believe the same results. That is totally inaccurate.

No because as someone else so eloquently stated on this thread-

I believe I've already weighed in on the matter.

 

[cakebaker]

Went back to find this post, Hmmmm now which is it definitely disagree or come to the same conclusion? Or are we to believe a clone with the same name wrote this?

It was one in the same.

At that point in the discussion, I had done what you continue to do- give the information on both websites a cursory glance without seriously looking at the details. Once it was brought to my attention that a cursory glance wasn't enough- that you actually had to understand what those numbers showed by comparing in detail what the 2 websites were saying- I realized I was wrong.

They really aren't that different after all. There is not a huge difference in times between the two in the overall park experience.

So, I was willing to look, re-think my position and realize I was not including all the information available. It really is a good way to go about finding the truth.

 

[cakebaker]

Uhhhh...we did U a couple of weeks ago to check it out for the first time in yrs. We did a 1 night stay at Loews Portofino which was absolutely hands down one of the nicest if not the nicest hotel in Orlando we've tried (and we've done most of the luxury properties), for a fraction of the price of the D deluxes. We did both parks on the 2 days , and of course had express pass(which is also available for purchase if you are not staying on property) for all the non HP attractions which meant 0 waiting for those. Dh and I do not do lines but I expected some with HP. We waited a grand total of 15 minutes for Hogswart express at 4 in the afternoon day 1 and I waited about 10 minutes for Gringotts (would have been shorter if I had done the single rider line but I wanted to see the bank with dh). Forbidden J was a walk on for me in single rider line. This is at the same time as Small World having a 45 minute wait for standby.
Disney has U beat in the nostalgia(I grew up with D)dep't. But pls you cannot compare waits between the parks.

We had much the same experience in the late fall. Universal was dead- WDW was packed.
We laughed to each other that all we had to do in order not to worry about crowds was go somewhere obviously no one else wanted to be. Problem was, at that point, neither did we.

The lines however in the summer for Potter were hideous from all reports.

 

[Planogirl]

We had much the same experience in the late fall. Universal was dead- WDW was packed.
We laughed to each other that all we had to do in order not to worry about crowds was go somewhere obviously no one else wanted to be. Problem was, at that point, neither did we.

The lines however in the summer for Potter were hideous from all reports.

No one wants to be at Universal? Really? Now you're really "stretching" the truth.

The truth is that YOU don't want to be there and I do. However I don't try to make assumptions for everyone else. I've been to Universal in the late Fall and it was never dead.

 

[floralmouse]

Of course if you don't want to stand in lines, The Wizarding World is not the place you want to be.

That aside, I would highly recommend the Wizarding World for anyone who loves Harry Potter.

It's not about standing in line, for me. It's the overscheduling. I've seen the lines at HP and they are insane...I'm still going to go, though.

 

[flicx]

It was one in the same.

At that point in the discussion, I had done what you continue to do- give the information on both websites a cursory glance without seriously looking at the details. Once it was brought to my attention that a cursory glance wasn't enough- that you actually had to understand what those numbers showed by comparing in detail what the 2 websites were saying- I realized I was wrong.

They really aren't that different after all. There is not a huge difference in times between the two in the overall park experience.

So, I was willing to look, re-think my position and realize I was not including all the information available. It really is a good way to go about finding the truth.

OKAY????

 

[mom2rtk]

For me it's not about making a list of what I am able to ride under FP+, then comparing the old wait times to the new wait times. It's about making a list of what I used to ride under legacy FP, then comparing the old wait times to the new wait times. Since more of my headliner rides will be by standby (with a limit of 3 and headliner sketchy for the 4th and subsequent FPs) I'll be adding possibly 45 minutes or longer per headliner. That adds up pretty fast.

 

[cakebaker]

The truth is that YOU don't want to be there and I do. However I don't try to make assumptions for everyone else. I've been to Universal in the late Fall and it was never dead.

It was a joke we made to each other, not an assumption- just a silly little joke. Of course people want to be there, just not very many when we were there. Worked out great for us. We wanted to be there or we wouldn't have gone. HP stuff was great. Buy you're right we don't want to do it again. Glad you like it, really. It's just not for us. No need to take offense at that.

 

[Nancyg56]

I love Touring Plans. Because of them, I had the best vacation of my life before there was an internet to plan one on. However, I would never, ever, discount Easy WDW and Josh. Actually, I would lean more on Josh because his information is free whereas Touring Plans has financial gain to say that wait times aren't overly affected. I mean, if FP+ has significantly increased wait times across the board, then their line wait time reducing strategies are seen as less effectual. And I would still use Touring Plans for any vacation I took. I used to buy the book yearly even when I didn't have a vacation planned and read the book front to back even when the information didn't change much. So to say I dismiss them would be wrong.

I used both sites this past trip. Honestly, both planning sites were a bit off during my planning stages, but I think that had a lot to do with the crowds that were higher than were projected. I really like TP and have used them for years, but I also have been trying to incorporate Josh's suggestions in my plans because he has so much detail to back up his opinions. In the end, I chose all the wrong parks ( yea, I know!) but I knew that going in and wanted them anyway, but based on commentary of fellow guests, there was no "right" park last week LOL!

One of the most difficult challenges planning sites have , I believe, is the marketing WDW does to fill up any empty weeks that are on the calendar. I returned home to another offer in my mailbox for a short span in December. That tells me that that span of time needs is short the number of guest. By the time folks book and then arrive, the numbers swell, and Boom! There go the planning numbers. I think that is what is happening in October. No more slow weeks, but the sites are still trying to catch up with the last minute bookings.

I will say that most people, myself included, were a little overwhelmed by the number of people in the parks, and I for one, was happy to have booked some FP in advance. The FP worked well, with minimum waits, and because I tried to stay in the same general area, I was good. I lost my Dwarfs because I misjudged
how long I would be in the Monsters Inc Laugh Factory, but that was my planning error that day. I made a choice to go for it, which did not pan out. Changing parks last minute was okay as well, with several top tier attractions showing opening FP the day before. I think that as time goes on, and WDW responds to the scheduling challenges, FP+ will become a planning tool many people like, but there is a learning curve. It worked well for me, but I think that it did because my mindset is pretty open. If I miss something, I can go back. And then I Let it Go! LOL! Others who made planning errors (Or no planning) were in trouble this past week, so if this was a bucket list, once n a lifetime trip, I know there was a lot of disappointment.

 

[Suvadoo]

I just read a post from someone who was just back from vacation. Overall the poster had an excellent time, but they did notice increased waits for secondary attractions that used to be walk-ons.
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3346781

I just don't see how people can say this isn't true. With Legacy, I used FP's for the top tier attractions and then rode secondary attractions with little or no wait. With FP+, people are booking FP+ for the secondary attractions once the E ticket reservations are taken. IMO, this is going to increase my overall wait time. FP+ will not reduce my wait time when I compare it to legacy, but it will increase my wait time on secondary attractions.
The poster I cited above, reserved a FP for the Muppets! I am amazed that Disney has put FP+ on A-ticket attractions!
Maybe, Disney should return to ticket books for crowd management. It might be more logical then their current system.

 

[johde]

I love Touring Plans. Because of them, I had the best vacation of my life before there was an internet to plan one on.

However, I would never, ever, discount Easy WDW and Josh.

Actually, I would lean more on Josh because his information is free whereas Touring Plans has financial gain to say that wait times aren't overly affected. I mean, if FP+ has significantly increased wait times across the board, then their line wait time reducing strategies are seen as less effectual.

And I would still use Touring Plans for any vacation I took. I used to buy the book yearly even when I didn't have a vacation planned and read the book front to back even when the information didn't change much. So to say I dismiss them would be wrong.

Conversely, if average wait times are up across property but there is still significant, and ideally predictable, variability throughout the day, it would be it touring plans best interest to report those longer wait times and advertise their services as a way to avoid standing in those ever increasing lines by finding the times when the waits aren't as long and picking FP+ reservations scientifically with the goal waiting and line and criss crossing around the parks a little as possible.

 

[Suvadoo]

Conversely, if average wait times are up across property but there is still significant, and ideally predictable, variability throughout the day, it would be it touring plans best interest to report those longer wait times and advertise their services as a way to avoid standing in those ever increasing lines by finding the times when the waits aren't as long and picking FP+ reservations scientifically with the goal waiting and line and criss crossing around the parks a little as possible.

Lately, I'm questioning the usefulness of touringplans, and I'm a longtime member. TP is always using the slogan that no matter how crowded the parks are, a good touringplan will cut your wait. Yes, I agree with that, but I am more interested in planning a vacation based on a low crowd level ( I'm lucky).

Lately, however, touringplans has not been very reliable at predicting crowds. I'm not saying they are responsible for the anomalies, but their usefulness in trip planning is becoming questionable.
Every week they publish an article showing what they predicted versus what they saw, and most of the time the actual crowd level is at least 1-2 points higher than predicted.
I don't think there are any days that are 1's anymore. The lowest crowd level I've seen with any regularity is a 4-5. I just think they need to adjust their 1-10 scale. Maybe their current 4 should become their new 1.

 

[tj4disney]

For me it's not about making a list of what I am able to ride under FP+, then comparing the old wait times to the new wait times. It's about making a list of what I used to ride under legacy FP, then comparing the old wait times to the new wait times. Since more of my headliner rides will be by standby (with a limit of 3 and headliner sketchy for the 4th and subsequent FPs) I'll be adding possibly 45 minutes or longer per headliner. That adds up pretty fast.

As always, mom2rtk has nailed it.

Any reduction in the headliner lines is meaningless to me. I wasn't going to wait 90 minutes, and I'm not going to wait 60 minutes. Meaning I would pretty much be one and done (maybe squeeze something extra with RD). Sorry, that just doesn't cut it for me.

Now, maybe crowds are low enough that SB for some of the headliners gets under 30-35 minutes...I might wait that long. Or, maybe the 4th FP gets you something (my co-worker went in Sept and he actually had good luck with 4th and beyond FP's at Epcot, but not MK...although he didn't care for being tied to his phone to make it work). But I find the uncertainty in that really unappealing. Which is really at the core of why I'm bitter about FP+...Disney took a system where "free market" reigned supreme, and replaced it with an opaque system where they are in complete control, and we really don't have a clue what's going on. Some of you are fine with that...that's great. But I think many of us sense that "opaque-ness", and it doesn't feel good.

 

[floralmouse]

Conversely, if average wait times are up across property but there is still significant, and ideally predictable, variability throughout the day, it would be it touring plans best interest to report those longer wait times and advertise their services as a way to avoid standing in those ever increasing lines by finding the times when the waits aren't as long and picking FP+ reservations scientifically with the goal waiting and line and criss crossing around the parks a little as possible.

This sounds good in my head, so please bear with me if it comes out stupid on the keyboard.

TP could, under the old system, shave off a bunch of wait time. BUT if Disney is tweaking the system to level wait times out regardless of attractions...with all attractions (which seems to be the case) ... no amount of TP will help. Disney has eliminated the wiggle room.

TP cannot account for what will be open or available while you make your plans. They can try to help but their formula now have way too many variables, in my opinion. However, to advertise that would cut into their business. What's the point of purchasing TP if everyone's playing field is now level regardless of experience or previous knowledge?

ALL of the above is based on my supposition. That all said, I personally would still purchase TP because there is a lot of valuable information aside from FP.

 

[wisblue]

Conversely, if average wait times are up across property but there is still significant, and ideally predictable, variability throughout the day, it would be it touring plans best interest to report those longer wait times and advertise their services as a way to avoid standing in those ever increasing lines by finding the times when the waits aren't as long and picking FP+ reservations scientifically with the goal waiting and line and criss crossing around the parks a little as possible.

I agree, and I think some of the responses to your post have taken off on the wrong point.

I think your point (and you can correct me if I'm wrong) was to counter the suggestion that Touring Plans has an incentive to downplay any patterns of increasing wait times at certain attractions. If anything, I think the fact that they charge for their advice makes it that much more critical that the information they provide is as accurate and unbiased is possible.

While I have followed both easywdw and Touring Plans for some time, I have never tried to compare the two to see which one provides more accurate predictions of crowds. But, that really has nothing to do with whether I accept either of their reports about past wait times as gospel or completely disregard them. I am starting with the assumption that they are both using the data available to them and making an honest attempt to analyze it as objectively as possible.

The fact that the two reports produce results that are not identical does not mean that one is right and one is wrong. Those results could just be a reflection of the fact that they are studying different data. Most significantly, the Touring Plans study covers a significantly different time period (February 1-June 19 compared to January 1-March 6 for easywdw). Touring Plans also compares the 2014 data to both 2012 and 2013 instead of just 2013 and makes an attempt to factor in increases in crowd sizes.

I don't think anyone has argued that there haven't been SOME increases at SOME attractions at SOME times. There are a lot of points in between "nothing has changed" and "attractions that used to be walk ons all day now have posted wait times of 45 minutes all afternoon". Even the easywdw report doesn't indicate that the changes are that dramatic.

 

[Planogirl]

It was a joke we made to each other, not an assumption- just a silly little joke. Of course people want to be there, just not very many when we were there. Worked out great for us. We wanted to be there or we wouldn't have gone. HP stuff was great. Buy you're right we don't want to do it again. Glad you like it, really. It's just not for us. No need to take offense at that.

I don't take offense at people not liking things. I only balk when people seem to state things that don't appear to make sense. If this is some type of joke then never mind of course.