imho
we bought ap's and made out BUT mostly because we went to Vero Beach disney for 5 days( husband had work related classes in Vero) and saved about 35 a night off the group rates( not sure what the regular rate would be , think it was about 70 more than we spent).. due to the public codes that came out we only saved about another 50 total for our Pop room 10 nights( public code rates were about $5 a night more than ap rates) so total savings of 225-400( depending on which vero rate) which more than made up for the passes plus we have another 1 maybe 2 trips planned ( Vero again in may for work with a brief wdw stop, wdw in nov) I f you are staying in a non-value hotel you probably would make out better.
with out Vero and the planned return trips i do not think the passes would have been worthwhile even for 10 days since we went to the parks 9 days but probably wouldn't have otherwise...went to MK one day just to see the inspearation mickeys and philharmagic! so the freedom was nice but not really worth the cost alone. none of the other "perks" the passes offer were that great....a candy bar at ghiradelli's( big deal) and a few $$ ( under 10) off souvies were I think the only ones we got. most of the rest. discounts are resort lunch only and then 10%...we never were there for lunch since we were in the parks.
you really need to weigh your options/plans and I wouldn't buy the ap till the last min. in case good codes come out.
the codes generally come out right around the time the current ones expire..think the oct ones came out last year mid-late sept or so .the Jan came out early in Dec. this year. there is a place on
www.mousesavers.com that listed historic dates for when they come out, sorry but do not remember what it is listed under...maybe aps
found it hope the link works
http://www.mousesavers.com/faq.html#codechart
the mousesaver newletter sometimes has better discounts for Dq, PI than the ap rates . you really need to check around and see what works for you.