AP sales…

[dvc lover 1970]

We have the AP but it's blocked out for Christmas and Thanksgiving. Will visit universal then but stay in our dvc resort

 

[DL1WDW2]

Make sure you check the Capacity Hotline for Universal before you drive all that way…
last year it was 407-8178317

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

https://**************.net/2022/05/magic-key-lawsuit-disneyland-moves-forward-rwb1/

 

[nuhusky123]

Walmart and target have posted horrible q2 results, leading indicators consumer spending on high ticket items are slowing down. if consumers are not buying TVs I can’t see the wave of spending on Disney vacations at crazy prices continuing

perhaps I’m wrong And people are willing to throw money at Disney but I think Disney is in for a bad q3

we are going to be in a full recession if not already. Disney is way overpriced in terms of hotel and ticket costs

we might start seeing a change in practices if we have more days where stocks drop 4%, especially since I don’t think we are anywhere near bottom

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[Flynn's Gal]

Disney started AP sales in 1982. Those were tough economic times too.

Could that possibly be a reason why they started selling APs then?

 

[luckyman_apd]

I'm with some of the others. We have pooled our points to go multiple trips with an AP because the park tickets have been ridiculously expensive for multiple trips in a year. It's kinda my line in the sand too. For what I'm about to pay for 7 days in regular tickets...an AP is a no brainer. This is going to be our last hurrah for parks. Banking and borrowing the next 3 years of points for a Hawaii trip and we have a few days of old Non expiration tickets to use. But in 3-4 years when I have a loaded contract.. anything could happen...but I could sell for far more more than I paid..and I got 10+ years of use out of it. It always amazes me how corporations forget their core customers until times are rough for them then they lean on them...and totally ignore them when times are good. I know "we only paid for a room" in the contract...but from 2007-2011 when things were rough for Disney...who kept the parks afloat? The loads of DVC members that kept visiting and spending money when the rest of the travelers stopped coming.

 

[DeeBee3]

Walmart and target have posted horrible q2 results, leading indicators consumer spending on high ticket items are slowing down. if consumers are not buying TVs I can’t see the wave of spending on Disney vacations at crazy prices continuing

perhaps I’m wrong And people are willing to throw money at Disney but I think Disney is in for a bad q3

we are going to be in a full recession if not already. Disney is way overpriced in terms of hotel and ticket costs

we might start seeing a change in practices if we have more days where stocks drop 4%, especially since I don’t think we are anywhere near bottom

I liked your post begrudgingly because I sadly think we are nowhere near bottom. Fun times are not in store.

 

[keishashadow]

but from 2007-2011 when things were rough for Disney...who kept the parks afloat? The loads of DVC members that kept visiting and spending money when the rest of the travelers stopped coming.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[CarolMN]

@Ms Bibbidi , thanks for your posts. I find them thought-provoking, especially because I am not a lawyer and do not think like one.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Another blogger has predicted AP sales will not return until early 2023. However, his rationale is basically park crowding, management of crowds and employees and the 40% increase in spending per visitor. Not much consideration of the litigation. He also predicted the park reservation system, which is clearly the driver for controlling the mix of daily ticket guests would be retired sometime in the future — maybe 2024 or 2025.

So I was considering his rationale and the new “day-of-visit” policy for Genie+. iit occurred to me that even though it appears Disney wants to keep the park reservation system, they might very well be in the position that they have to keep it while the litigation in California is pending. While their “wanting” to keep it might currently be explained as “making hay while the sun shines” as we approach a recession, they may be stuck with it during the litigation.

Getting rid of the park reservation system could have a huge impact on that litigation. What Disney is fighting for is the right to control park access to passholders in favor of more profitable day ticket guests and so they can steer passholders into less profitable times and less crowded parks. In other words, space-available. In sort, Disney wants to decide the where and when a passholder accesses the parks. They apparently do not care about the social and emotional negativity this creates for the individual passholder. They are fighting for the creation of a management tool — who decides when a passholder guest will come and to which park — Disney management or the individual passholder guest? That is the issue.

They must keep the park reservation system while the litigation persists. They cannot settle on that issue if there is any court order entering the settlement as a judgment because then they would forever lose the right to deploy that management tool. They would be limited to the advertised blackout calendar sold. Disney does not want to lose the right to make the choice. So, again, I came to the tentative conclusion that we remain in status quo while that litigation goes on. Interestingly, they are still limiting it to the California parks and have not yet overtly swept the Florida passholders into the litigation. But clearly, the driving issue applies both places. Binding result? Maybe, maybe not. That is another post.

I prefer your posts on this topic to any blogger’s. I have no idea what will happen but reading your thoughts is always enjoyable. Thanks for sharing your insights with us.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[Sandisw]

Thank you. Sometimes I get too wordy or there is too much legal jargon. I am also aware I am not always right. Nobody can be when predicting the future.

I love the thought process and how each can impact the other. They just make sense to give us much to think about as to why they may make decisions they make.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[Sandisw]

OK Mouseketeers. Buckle your seatbelts! This NEW AP Sales ride may be about to launch.

Backstory first:
In the lawsuit:
Plaintiff filed a Second Amended Complaint on May 10th.
Defendant, Disney, filed an Answer to it on May 20th. (Note they did not file a motion to dismiss it.)
So, I am thinking Plaintiff may have strengthened their case and potentially the earlier claims that were dismissed without prejudice are back in litigation (meaning they could re-draft those causes of action and file them again.) IF the Plaintiff's case appears stronger, Disney may be changing tactics with regard to annual passes.

Guess what! Today, Disney stopped selling ALL new Magic Keys (annual passes) for DLR. The top two tiers showed sold out. Now, they are not selling any new Magic Keys.

Instead, for Southern California residents only, Disney has launched two new options:
1. A 3 day - 1 park pass for $83 per day - Monday through Thursday. Can be used on nonconsecutive days and valid any time between June 13th and September 15th.
2. A 3 day - 1 park pass for $100 per day - Any day of the week. Can be used on nonconsecutive days and valid any time between June 13th and September 15th.
Both tickets have a park hopper add on option for an additional $60 per day.

Here's the caveat language: "Theme park reservations are limited, subject to availability and not guaranteed. Certain parks, attractions, restaurants, experiences, services and offerings may be modified or unavailable, limited in capacity and subject to limited availability or even closure. Park admission and offerings are not guaranteed."

Several items noteworthy on this.

• If this is a forerunner for Disney World, then we can expect all new sales of annual passes in their current form to be terminated.
• There is no word that renewals have changed. So, if anybody is eligible for and wants a Pixie Pass -- GET IT NOW! LIKE TODAY!
• Disney appears to realize that they can set a floor on the dollar amount for a gate admission. For DLR, that is $83 per day plus tax.
• Standard tickets are still 1-5 day tickets that must be used within 13 days of first use. Basically, still a "per trip" based ticket.
• By classifying the new Southern California tickets with a "seasonal" type of expiration, it the seasonal ticket holder on an equal footing with other ticketed guests. It helps gut the second class citizen status of the passholder.
• We may be looking at the start of a one-bucket system, that still requires park reservations. I think this is a trial period.
• The trial period might last until about September 15th.
• The language for Disney World annual passes still references being able to renew. Not guaranteed, but it has not changed.

Remember, Disney re-started DLR Magic Keys in August 2021, so this was done right before the vast majority of those will come up for renewal 60 days before -- in June.

For Disney World, the Incredi-pass, Sorcerer, Pirate and Pixie started selling September 8, 2021. So the earliest passes would expire September 7, 2022 and 60 days before renewal would be July 9, 2022. WDW Timing: IF Disney acts consistently with today's announcement ahead of renewals of Magic Keys, then our announcement would come the first week of July -- probably few days after the 4th of July.

The Disney Q3 2022 Earnings Report quarter will end about July 2nd with a report about August 11th. Because of when Disney announced and restarted sales last year around August 4th, this is when I thought we might see some new pass announced this year, if they were not going to wait for litigation. I had forgotten to factor in the 60 days in advance for renewals.

What Disney did in DLR was stop all new Magic Keys in favor of seasonal multi-day tickets. That could be a way for Disney to have a floor for park admissions. It may be tempting for them to go long term with this -- not undated tickets but seasonal multi-day tickets. IF that is the case, it would be a very, very extreme price hike for former passholders if implemented for all passholders/frequent visitors. Maybe they just do not want frequent visitors any longer?
It could also be a way to ride out longer term litigation. It completely abolishes the concept of annual passes for Southern California visitors in favor of a floor price for a gate admission. It may never apply to Disney World as there are differences. But, if it is to buy time during the litigation, then after the Second Amended Complaint and Answer, Disney may be considering settlement and a road to recovery that does not include annual passes as we know them.

Thanks for the insight. I guess I am very happy that they messed up my 10 day ticket by using a day in March (when they should not have) and let me buy a Sorcerer Renewal pass early as a way to get me the credit (since they could not give me back a 10 day pass like I had).

So, at least at this point, I am set with an AP through March of 2024!

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

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[wnielsen1]

This is the end game I envisioned when the lawsuit was filed. Sure, they'll win the lawsuit (or get 80% of the way there in a settlement) so here's your refund and no more annual passes until park attendance craters, if ever.

 

[artesian]

This is the end game I envisioned when the lawsuit was filed. Sure, they'll win the lawsuit (or get 80% of the way there in a settlement) so here's your refund and no more annual passes until park attendance craters, if ever.

I am in the camp if ever will be 2023. They will ride the 50th out until March and that's when I personally see attendance starting to change if not sooner. I think the biggest reason they aren't selling now is pent up demand.(aka they can get away with it) With pricing being what it is it will turn on them soon. (I hope) Even though I could technically afford to go with just getting individual tix multiday I don't see the value anymore. My past trip had me down to only 3 park days on a 6 day stay. Not all might share my sentiment but without AP I did spend less and did go less. I'd normally bounce back later this year or early next but will not go until late 2023-24.

 

[Miffy]

Whew! I realized that maybe I could renew my AP today (even though I had it on my calendar for tomorrow), so I just checked and in fact, I could renew it today, so I did. I have an Incredi-Pass since I'm an out-of-state WDW AP holder. Usually I look at what this costs--the renewal is $1,175 now--and remember ye olden days when an AP cost $400, but today I was just relieved I could get it at all.

@Ms Bibbidi: Thanks so much for your interesting and informative posts.