Anybody else nervous about going to WDW with the Swine Flu scare?

[CarolA]

Not to quibble with you ... but...

If that number 36,000 is right. Then there is a serious flu outbreak, over the last few years that has been the annual number, 36,000. So that would mean all flu this year has been 3 times more deadly this year than in previous years. In fact even based on the range, the estimates top number is just under 60k, so that would make it record year.

I suspect you have some bad data. Flu and Flu related complications account for about 36,000 per year in the US. Or about 100 per day.

Which to look at it another way that ONE death that has been confirmed to due to 2009 H1N1 was reported 3 days ago ( so that means there are something like 299 people have died from the flu since that have gotten ZERO media.)

For the fact checkers out there I used this page from the CDC for my numbers.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

johno

Here you go...

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/

CNN does appear to have changed this from the first article I linked to on the Theme Parks board. (And I am too lazy to go look.)

But they report 800 deaths a week this winter from "flu" Which means since we are into week two of this "panic" we are currentl 1,599 deaths behind the average!

And no MATTER how you slice it.. its 35,999 MORE deaths the we have had from the "current" scare!

 

[Tara]

Not to quibble with you ... but...

If that number 36,000 is right. Then there is a serious flu outbreak, over the last few years that has been the annual number, 36,000. So that would mean all flu this year has been 3 times more deadly this year than in previous years. In fact even based on the range, the estimates top number is just under 60k, so that would make it record year.

I suspect you have some bad data. Flu and Flu related complications account for about 36,000 per year in the US. Or about 100 per day.

Which to look at it another way that ONE death that has been confirmed to due to 2009 H1N1 was reported 3 days ago ( so that means there are something like 299 people have died from the flu since that have gotten ZERO media.)

For the fact checkers out there I used this page from the CDC for my numbers.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

johno

I heard an interview on NPR with someone whose name I can't remember...he's called a "sentinel provider" for the CDC. He talked a good bit about this flu season being odd in that it was very quiet in the first few months and didn't really start until March. I think the 36,000 number is just an annual average.

 

[CarolA]

The CDC claims that there were no fewer then 800 deaths a week between 1/1/09 and 4/18/09

So if it got a late start you have to assume that there were more deaths later?

 

[jco_direwolf]

I think the 36,000 number is just an annual average.

Yes if you read the link to the CDC that I posted. 36,000 is the based on the updated study that used the same methods that a study in 2003 used, looking at data back to 1990-91 flu season.

The 36,000 is also a "rounded" number, the real number was 36,171, which is the annual average and of course dividing it by 365 isn't 100 (it's 99.09.)

And yes I know it's seasonal, more deaths at some parts of the year and less at others. It's not like when the 100th person dies from the flu everyone is safe for rest of the day.

But the point I was making with an average of 100 people dying per day, the death of one person, even a 23 month old child, is not statistically significant. Maybe I'm being pedantic here but it takes more than 1 person to make a "pandemic".

The population of the US is about 300 million people Mexico (based on wikipedia) is 109 million. Assuming there deaths due to flu are anywhere near comparable (I suspect the numbers are) they should have about 1/3 what we do per year. So they should have about 30 deaths per day.

They have had something like 16. Which is about a factor of 2 less than you would expect to see in on an average day.

Now do you see why I'm not very worried? But then I'm sure Steven Colbert would berate me about using statistics and numbers and not feeling. I do feel badly when anyone dies, from the flu or drunk driver, or just natural causes, it's a lost to someone. But this is about media hype.

johno

 

[jco_direwolf]

The CDC claims that there were no fewer then 800 deaths a week between 1/1/09 and 4/18/09

So if it got a late start you have to assume that there were more deaths later?

Can you please point me to that number? I read the CDC's MMWR every few weeks (I don't always have time, since public health is more a hobby, it's my fathers vocation.) The only number they normally publish about influenza, is the P&I (Pneumonia and influenza) deaths in 122 metro areas. This week (ending April 18th, 15th week of 2009) that number is 820.

Yes, I know I can go back and do that number my self. Look it up each week in the MMWR for the past 15 issues. But I'm lazy, which you can tell from all the posts I've made in this thread alone.

But that includes Pneumonia, which is a common complication of bad flu (it happened to me one year.) Also it's only for 122 metro areas. My assumption is the real number across the nation would be higher. I don't if there is anyway to split out the Pneumonia, or if that even makes sense (which it may not since the CDC doesn't do it.)

At anyrate... 1 out of 820 again it's not a really significant increase. Assuming that number is near the same this week as it was 2 weeks ago before the PANDEMIC broke out. The CDC numbers are a few weeks behind because they have to sent up the chain of reporting though the state health departments.

johno

 

[CarolAnnC]

Since this is more of a flu discussion, rather than a DVC specific topic, and it is currently being discussed on Theme Parks, this topic is now closed. Thanks everyone.