Your argument is logical but your are removing one important factor from the reservation process - that is emotion. Do you know how many times in the past, off-season even, that I have been unable to get my choice on hotels when I waited too long. If I am going to go to the expense of buying non-refundable airline tickets and we are all going to arrange to have that time off from work, you'd better believe I am going to make sure I have rooms available to us in advance. Everyone is waiting for discounts to be announced for the end of August. I cannot imagine sitting here at the beginning of August not knowing whether or not I will be able to get rooms in three weeks. Especially when Disney offers all kinds of terrific rates to Florida residents on a regular basis.