Any news when DVC members can get an annual pass???

[Pooh12863]

They don’t because we use giftcards. If you don’t link credit card to room and then use it through your magic band, they don’t know what you spend. And Disney’s IT is garbage. I’d be surprised if they succeed in tracking anything period.

Unless you enter your cards on disneygiftcard dot com which identifies you through log in.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

They don’t need to know what individual people spend. They just need to know what people spend in the aggregate and how that changes as the attendance mix changes.

This is a game of averages. Disney doesn’t care about me individually. They care about what people do collectively.

I agree the collective is important but that did not seem to be what you were stating.
Of course average guest spending is easy. It's the rest that isn't as easy as often purported as there are too many gaps in their tracking to completely attribute to individuals which is what I was stating.

Reviewing again - you said they know exactly what the average AP guest spends. Impossible. They COULD. They probably do have the means now, but they don't do that. Even knowing the different mix at the turnstile does not tell a complete story that can reliably be counted on.

 

[clarker99]

And when Eric Universal opens, it will become even more expensive

I imagine you are right. I am actually not that bothered about price. It is down my list of things that concern me. I fully realize that a theme park holiday is gonna be expensive and I choose to pay it.

If all of Universal was even half as good as Daigon Alley then I would want to be there more. I love Daigon Alley (the theme and vibe) more than any area in Disney (DLR or WDW) with Cars Land a close 2nd. The rest of Universal is not up to par. Of course, it is just my opinion.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

if Disney is lumping my family in with local vloggers they are even dumber than I thought. I can guarantee that people coming from out of town spend a lot more than Florida residents. When I was younger I used to think I was special and different. As I’ve gotten older I realize that I’m pretty much like everyone else and if I’m doing it or thinking it so is everyone else. We spent WAY WAY more at Disney parks once we got the annual pass. There is no way that Disney is making more on people who are local with annual passes or who are one time pass spenders.

 

[Brian Noble]

you said they know exactly what the average AP guest spends

Go back and read my longer explanation. I stand by it. I suppose it would be more accurate to say they approximate the average AP guest spend with very high precision, but that's close enough to "exact" to make the statements they are making.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

People are not going to to just run to Universal and abandon Disney. Disney is still far more attractive to young families.

True, but as ticket prices increase many families will have to make a choice which park to go to. When my kids were small we used to visit both parks. I still have my u unused ticket from2008 for universal...80.00 for a week. Disney was in the 200 range for 10 day ticket. Prices have risen faster than the rate of inflation and less is offered. Pay for fast pass...which stinks imo. I tried genie last year...maybe I wasn't doing it right but after spending 60.00 to add on FP for family all we got was two fast passes.
We purchased the universal tickets in 07 and 08. Did not use them in 08 partly due to the lines and I really liked the fp system at Disney. I miss the paper fp system. Oh well.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I imagine you are right. I am actually not that bothered about price. It is down my list of things that concern me. I fully realize that a theme park holiday is gonna be expensive and I choose to pay it.

If all of Universal was even half as good as Daigon Alley then I would want to be there more. I love Daigon Alley (the theme and vibe) more than any area in Disney (DLR or WDW) with Cars Land a close 2nd. The rest of Universal is not up to par. Of course, it is just my opinion.

Even Disney throws in a mix. Compare Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land.

 

[Brian Noble]

When I was younger I used to think I was special and different. As I’ve gotten older I realize that I’m pretty much like everyone else and if I’m doing it or thinking it so is everyone else. We spent WAY WAY more at Disney parks once we got the annual pass.

Disney's accountants came to a different conclusion. The options that explain that conclusion are:

1. You aren't like everyone else.
2. You are like everyone else but do not understand what the different categories of guests spend per day.
3. Disney's accountants are incompetent and they are incorrect.
4. Disney is lying.

I believe #3 is unlikely--as I wrote above, doing this is not exceptionally difficult. #4 has serious consequences when you do it in an earnings report, so I figure that's unlikely as well. That leaves #1 and #2. Even if the answer is #1, that doesn't matter to Disney. They can accomplish their goals by thinking of guests in the aggregate rather than having to understand each individual customer.

 

[tjkraz]

Love the post @Brian Noble

We can deride "Disney IT" for 2 hour booking outages on the DVC website. But analyzing raw attendance and spending numbers from a database is child's play. Other numbers which should be easily obtainable to help draw a clearer picture:

- How much AP holders spend on merchandise (via AP discount)
- How much AP holders spend on table service meals (AP discount / MDE app)
- How much AP holders spend on quick service dining (mobile order)
- How many AP holders are staying at Disney hotels / where they're staying / how long they stay, etc (MDE)
- How many AP holders buy Genie+
- Average time of arrival at park, days that are most popular, park hopping frequency

In some cases, you're not going to get an entirely clear picture. But you take what you can get and extrapolate the results across the entire population. Not everyone does mobile food orders but of those who DO order via the MDE app, if 10% are passholders and 90% not, it's reasonable to conclude that about 10% of your park-wide food orders are Passholders.

You could even make some assumptions about average length of stay by looking at things like the last time a guest tapped-in at a Genie attraction, their last mobile / magic band purchase in a theme park or their first purchase outside of a park.

More than 150,000 guests visit the WDW parks on a daily basis. Even if only a fraction of those guests meet the criteria for inclusion in some of the more esoteric measures, just a few weeks or months gives you plenty of data to work with. Disney has years of such data.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Go back and read my longer explanation. I stand by it. I suppose it would be more accurate to say they approximate the average AP guest spend with very high precision, but that's close enough to "exact" to make the statements they are making.

As I said - averages are simple.
They do not tell a full story. Knowing that full story isn't as necessary in a mature, cash cow business. That is were Disney parks has been for awhile now. When things aren't that way then it's more important. If working only off of averages you can easily alienate a core you didn't even realize was in reality extremely important and providing more than the simple average model info provides.

 

[Brian Noble]

I will confess that I'm thinking about this in more detail because my son is taking his quantitative methods sequence this year.

If working only off of averages you can easily alienate a core you didn't even realize was in reality extremely important and providing more than the simple average model info provides.

Yep, that's true. But Disney is also fanatical about measuring customer sentiment, because they actively consider goodwill as an asset. They know that there is a balancing act, and that's something that Bob 1.0/3.0 talked about in the most recent conference call.

You and I have been around these boards for a minute. Every single time some price is raised, some service is discontinued, or something else changes for the worse, the response is predictable: "This time they've gone too far! It's the straw that will break the camel's back!"

And, yes, some people do leave. But there are always new guests to take their place. That's partly because the planet keeps making families with school-aged children, and many of those families consider a Disney trip a rite of passage. As long as Disney manages the rate of departures and it is low enough while they increase prices or decrease costs, they win. They've been playing this game in the theme parks for almost 70 years, and they haven't irrevocably screwed it up yet. They've made mistakes, but those have all been easily correctable with a few discount-bones thrown to the masses. Will this be the moment in which they screw it up more seriously?

Maybe.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. But at the same time this is a company that has shown that they know what they are doing. So, the odds are good that they know what they are doing now. That's true even though some of us are upset, and upset enough to sell our DVC holdings and stop coming. Because the "families from Denver" with the 1.94 children ages 5-7 are coming, and some of them will find the experience so magical that they will keep coming back for a decade or so, only to be replaced by another one, and so on. Is it as magical as it was when I first went? Probably not. They don't know that.

I will readily admit, I would prefer that they were wrong about this, because I like a discount just as much as the next person, and frankly it hurts a little bit to be told "We'd prefer it if you not come back as often." But, if I were playing the odds, my money would be on the Mouse holding all that cheese.

 

[clarker99]

Even Disney throws in a mix. Compare Toy Story Land and Star Wars Land.

I like both, tbh. Galaxy's Edge is amazing to be inside but it lacks that whimsical feeling. Needs more characters and the OG Star Wars music or something and another ride.

Universal has put near zero effort into anything non-Potter. Velocicoaster is the only exception yet they did nothing to make a proper Jurassic Park/World land, which is wild to me. Fast and the Furious is one of the highest grossing franchises in movie history and look what they did? Most ride heights are 42inches or higher. Hagrids is 48 and Velocicoaster is 58(!). You are not allowing families to ride your best attractions together until they older. People complain of Genie+ pricing but have people looked at express pass pricing? Express pass is not controlled for a time to ride so you can hop in an Express Pass line and wait 30mins or longer. Not always but it can happen.

My opinion is that Universal is not as good overall. Some will agree and some will disagree. I am not even saying it is bad. I will still be going to Epic Universe. I was going to venture to Universal Hollywood to see Super Nintendo Land but I am not that inspired. It is very small and the ride doesn't get me excited enough.

I feel like this isn't the thread for this conversation. So I apologize to the OP for going off topic.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I imagine you are right. I am actually not that bothered about price. It is down my list of things that concern me. I fully realize that a theme park holiday is gonna be expensive and I choose to pay it.

If all of Universal was even half as good as Daigon Alley then I would want to be there more. I love Daigon Alley (the theme and vibe) more than any area in Disney (DLR or WDW) with Cars Land a close 2nd. The rest of Universal is not up to par. Of course, it is just my opinion.

Super Nintendo world!

 

[clarker99]

Super Nintendo world!

Tbh, I am more excited for the Ministry of Magic. Looking at coverage of Super Nintendo Land in Japan and Hollywood, I am not as excited as I once was.

 

[robotsneedlove2]

We spent WAY WAY more at Disney parks once we got the annual pass.

Ha! I resemble this remark

I may have always bought the AP because it was going to "save" us money on tickets, but it always ending up costing us more money. Usually in the form of an additional trip to WDW.

 

[tjkraz]

As I said - averages are simple.
They do not tell a full story. Knowing that full story isn't as necessary in a mature, cash cow business. That is were Disney parks has been for awhile now. When things aren't that way then it's more important. If working only off of averages you can easily alienate a core you didn't even realize was in reality extremely important and providing more than the simple average model info provides.

I would propose that Disney is likely able to drill down to what you describe in a meaningful way. Especially with regard to Annual Passholders thanks to MDE and the AP discount.

Using the AP discount, they could identify their top spenders over any period of time. And with that population, they can identify how spending patterns change over time as a result of price increases, additional discounts (limited time 30% AP discount), etc. Same could be done with dining discounts, looking for changes in guest patterns associated with menu changes, price increases, even WDW corporate decisions.

Here's an intriguing one. Disney knows who had an annual pass in 2019 / early 2020. The exact people, down to their MDE account. They know how many of those people no longer have an Annual Pass, many of them due to the pause in sales. And they should be able to go further and figure out how those people's park days, hotel days, merchandise and dining spend has changed since they've been unable to buy an AP.

I've spent the last 30 years writing database queries and reports. Digging into Disney data would be like Christmas morning. Disney undoubtedly has dozens...hundereds of different reports they use for decision making. Reports which have been refined over the years to provide more and more meaningful data on which to base their decisions.

 

[Chuck S]

I would propose that Disney is likely able to drill down to what you describe in a meaningful way. Especially with regard to Annual Passholders thanks to MDE and the AP discount.

Using the AP discount, they could identify their top spenders over any period of time. And with that population, they can identify how spending patterns change over time as a result of price increases, additional discounts (limited time 30% AP discount), etc. Same could be done with dining discounts, looking for changes in guest patterns associated with menu changes, price increases, even WDW corporate decisions.

Here's an intriguing one. Disney knows who had an annual pass in 2019 / early 2020. The exact people, down to their MDE account. They know how many of those people no longer have an Annual Pass, many of them due to the pause in sales. And they should be able to go further and figure out how those people's park days, hotel days, merchandise and dining spend has changed since they've been unable to buy an AP.

I've spent the last 30 years writing database queries and reports. Digging into Disney data would be like Christmas morning. Disney undoubtedly has dozens...hundereds of different reports they use for decision making. Reports which have been refined over the years to provide more and more meaningful data on which to base their decisions.

But really, the AP Discounts on dining and shopping aren't much of a consideration to overall spending when it comes to DVC members, as we already get pretty much the same discounts by virtue of DVC, whether we are AP holders or not. So in that regard, they could give DVCers access to APs with no immediate impact on purchasing/dining. The only impact they'd see would be on the overall price of tickets.

 

[CraigInPA]

Love the post @Brian Noble

We can deride "Disney IT" for 2 hour booking outages on the DVC website. But analyzing raw attendance and spending numbers from a database is child's play.

Actually, because I do this like every day analyzing web site traffic for a Fortune 10 company, I can tell you that "analyzing raw attendance and spending numbers from a database is" NOT "child's play." Sure, it's easy to come up with averages, but averages skew based upon how you sample, and don't necessarily recover when you start using large numbers. For example, if you have 20% of the sample population spending $100 each, and 80% of the population spending $0, your average is $20. But your standard deviation is sky high. You can't expect to reliably get $20 per visitor with a sky high standard deviation. Imagine what would happen if you have a convention of $100 per visit buyers show up in droves one day, which causes them to be 80% of the population that day. Then, your average is now $80 with a low standard deviation. Or the opposite, your sampling period has NO $100 buyers, which drives your average to $0 with a zero standard deviation. That low standard deviation tells you that you've got a good sample...but you don't, because the samples are contaminated by irregular behavior. This is why modelling uses tiers of predictions based upon external factors. I'm sure DPEP has a room of statisticians who are modelling expected purchase behavior based upon dozens, if not hundreds, of external factors. "Child's play"? Certainly not.

 

[tjkraz]

I'm sure DPEP has a room of statisticians who are modelling expected purchase behavior based upon dozens, if not hundreds, of external factors. "Child's play"? Certainly not.

The "child's play" comment was simply in reference to grouping by certain data elements. Assuming all of the merchandise purchase data contains a "AP Discount Y/N" field, it could / should be quite simple to get at numbers showing how much each group spends. And further sort it by buyer's state of residence, type of AP owned, DVC status (Y/N), theme park, shop, day of the week, etc.

Turning that data into useful INFORMATION is certainly a much greater challenge. But Disney has spent years refining those reports to suit their needs.

At the end of the day, I hope we both agree that it's unlikely Disney is flailing around without access to what feels like very rudimentary data about their customers. And that individual anecdotes about how Disney's policy changes have impacted guests' habits--even those of so-called "core" customers--don't necessarily translate into a poor business decision.

 

[sethschroeder]

Perks are not guaranteed, and APs are not controlled by DVC. So I doubt you have any legal standing to protest. Parks could offer APs to any association or group they wish.

Disagree and view this statement as false.

I understand stating they are not guaranteed on the purchasing threads as things can change but not when discussing the actual contracts that were signed. The following is all pulled directly from the signed sales contracts with DVC on a direct purchase since the pandemic.

DVC outlined these can change.


DVC outlines that if changed you need something reasonably similar to replace it


Their get out of free jail card during the pandemic is now void since the restriction on selling APs is no longer in regards to a pandemic. They would try to argue while Disney controls APs DVC does not so its out of their control. That may or may not work to pull the wool over the judges eyes as to how Disney essentially controls all aspects of DVC and these membership extras.


These are locked in for a 3 year period