Any new rumors on PAP?

[culli]

Anyone??????

 

[mikek]

my brother's wife's mailman's cousin spoke to a bus driver who knew a guy that spoke to an annual pass CM and they reported that...


...they still haven't decided to do anything at this time...

 

[drusba]

Unfortunately, there aren't even any old rumors of Disney's renewing the PAP deal.

 

[Msmithmd]

I think this one is pretty safe: It is September 27th now. They haven't said or leaked one word about it. They aren't doing it this year.

Problem is that the vouchers could be redeemed through December of this year, from the original purchase last fall. Therefore DVC members like me haven't even started our PAP. I begin mine in Thanksgiving week 2013.

I suspect Disney corporate wants to review their data from the original offer, before they decide whether doing it again will make or cost them money. If you think they did this offer out of the goodness of their hearts, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. That analysis puts you well into 2014 for them to possibly offer discounted PAP again.

Look on the bright side. The offer caused a whole lot of members to borrow into the applicable UY's to maximize their use of the pass. There's a reasonable chance DVC room availability will ease off in the next 1.5-2 years if Disney doesn't renew the offer. Simply said, those members will need to either add-on DVC points by purchase, or sit out a year to catch up.

And make no mistake, I'd love to be proven wrong on this. I just don't see it happening.

 

[smcabee]

Yep dont think its happening this year. We bought ours last year and havent redeemed yet. Not going to until our trip in Nov. Disney will wait until they see if it is sufficently profitable for them to give that discount before they offer it again.

 

[gray52]

The math is not that difficult... Passes that have been activated added with projections of those that have not been activated would give them all the numbers they need to decide wether to run the special again. The only number they can't project yet are the ones that were purchased and, for one reason or another, never activated. And, in my opinion, they probably had all the numbers they needed to project success/failure the day the special ended.

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[nickspace]

All I know is that we are having a blast using our PAPs this year but after they expire a park break will be in order. Hopefully they will run the special in a year or better two and then we would jump back in again.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We haven't used the water park option much, but intend to do so in October. I'm glad they offered it, and hope they do so again sometime!

 

[keishashadow]

We are enjoying it and working in extra trips which is likely their intent.

Wouldn't think an offer would roll out until last quarter of '14 or early '15. If not an offer for PAPs, a multi day MYW discount would be appreciated

 

[tjkraz]

It was always intended to be a one-off deal. Maybe come back in a few years.

Special deals like that lose their effectiveness when they are offered with regularity. Sure, a lot of people loaded-up on trips and spent more money as a result of the discount. But if offered for a second straight year, the effect would be less. A third year, even lower impact.

 

[Msmithmd]

The math is not that difficult... Passes that have been activated added with projections of those that have not been activated would give them all the numbers they need to decide wether to run the special again. The only number they can't project yet are the ones that were purchased and, for one reason or another, never activated. And, in my opinion, they probably had all the numbers they needed to project success/failure the day the special ended. Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

I think you missed my point, but to be fair I didn't state it clearly enough.

The math isn't how many bought/activated the PAP. On that item alone, Disney likely loses revenue versus standard ticket pricing, because very few people who put forward the $400 per person cost for the pass don't get the basic admission value and more out of the pass.

The analysis is: What were the spending patterns on total Disney product (food, retail, extra CRO reservations, likelihood to buy DVC add-on points, etc) by DVC members who purchased the PAP versus those who didn't? This is where they make their money- by increasing frequency, quality, and length of guest visits.

In many ways the PAP offer was an extension of the fundamental concept of DVC. That could be stated as "give the customer a good rate on the lodging and make them feel like they are getting a deal, and they will come more often, stay longer, and spend more on everything while they are here."

They certainly have the technology to integrate and pull this data. And sure, they made projections before making the PAP discount available. My point is that they likely will do the analysis of the actual spending patterns as effected by the offer, before they decide whether to do it again.

 

[phorsenuf]

It was always intended to be a one-off deal. Maybe come back in a few years.

Special deals like that lose their effectiveness when they are offered with regularity. Sure, a lot of people loaded-up on trips and spent more money as a result of the discount. But if offered for a second straight year, the effect would be less. A third year, even lower impact.

I disagree with that, to an extent. I think it's possible that people who missed out on it the first time around may jump on it the second time. I know I hm'd and haw'd because of the big outlay of cash. It's possible that people, in possible anticipation of it being offered again, put money aside hoping for the same offer.

 

[tjkraz]

The analysis is: What were the spending patterns on total Disney product (food, retail, extra CRO reservations, likelihood to buy DVC add-on points, etc) by DVC members who purchased the PAP versus those who didn't? This is where they make their money- by increasing frequency, quality, and length of guest visits.

And the next stage of that analysis is to determine what happens when the offer goes away. How many people continue to buy the PAP at full price? Does spending continue at higher levels? Is there a positive impact on point sales due to members using all available points with discounted PAPs?

I disagree with that, to an extent. I think it's possible that people who missed out on it the first time around may jump on it the second time. I know I hm'd and haw'd because of the big outlay of cash. It's possible that people, in possible anticipation of it being offered again, put money aside hoping for the same offer.

Certainly there are exceptions but what matters are the large-scale trends.

Thousands of people bought the $399 PAP--and altered their travel plans around it--because they feared it was a one-time offering. To many, it was too good to refuse.

But as soon as Disney creates the expectation that the PAP will frequently reappear, the impact is gone. The impulse buys are almost completely eliminated.

Instead of crafting trips and spending patterns around what may be "a one-time offer", over time most people will return to their typical patterns and just snag the offer whenever it fits their circumstances.

 

[BEASLYBOO]

I thought of it as an incentive for us to purchase since the economy was making a sluggish comeback! As in any perk, you can't count/depend on them, they come and they go!

 

[mikek]

I think this one is pretty safe: It is September 27th now. They haven't said or leaked one word about it. They aren't doing it this year.

Problem is that the vouchers could be redeemed through December of this year, from the original purchase last fall. Therefore DVC members like me haven't even started our PAP. I begin mine in Thanksgiving week 2013.

I suspect Disney corporate wants to review their data from the original offer, before they decide whether doing it again will make or cost them money. If you think they did this offer out of the goodness of their hearts, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. That analysis puts you well into 2014 for them to possibly offer discounted PAP again.

Look on the bright side. The offer caused a whole lot of members to borrow into the applicable UY's to maximize their use of the pass. There's a reasonable chance DVC room availability will ease off in the next 1.5-2 years if Disney doesn't renew the offer. Simply said, those members will need to either add-on DVC points by purchase, or sit out a year to catch up.

And make no mistake, I'd love to be proven wrong on this. I just don't see it happening.

I'm SURE like you it's all about the Benjamins but I'm not so sure it's a 'we spent X this year (in lost revenue from discounts) so we need to make back X+.' It MAY be that like the various incentives DVC throws out that it's more of the big picture making DVC members feel special and therefore spend more over many years while telling all their friends about how great it is.

As an example after 15-20 years are people really spending more on merchandise because of a 10% discount some places? If they bought 20 shirts already is the 10% this year going to cause them to buy 1 more? So Not sure it needs to be linear.

Along those lines, before magic bands I'm not all that sure that besides survey/polls that they really would have enough information to determine if we spend more money inside the parks as a result of PAP's or not. They probably can see how many less tickets were added to ressies, but they don't know who normally buys at UT or wherever. And if people don't charge to the room then they dont know if you ate more at epcot or not. So there has to be a bit of art and not entirely math and science to the decisions.