I would tend to agree with Tom... now is one of those murky times when you might get by with a much lower rate than the norm.
One big benefit to buying via resale is you don't have to buy the minimum 150 points that
DVC requires in a direct sale. Of course, one of the big drawbacks is that you have to pay cash or find your own financing (which can be more difficult to obtain).
To add on to what Doc mention earlier, when you do the math, also make sure and compare the number of points currently available. It may help to convert those points into $ figures by calculating $10 per point. If the resale contract is stripped (ie no points until 2006 or 2007), I'd move on.
Just to give an example based on 150 points at SSR.
Assume you are looking at a resale contract that is stripped of 2005 points. Nothing available until June 1, 2006, maybe they are asking $79 per point.
Ok, now thru DVC with the current incentive, you'd be looking at $83.30 per point, but you get the 2005 points. To compare apples to apples you need to figure out how much this DVC contract would be worth if it was "stripped". If you put the current rental value of $10 per point on them, you would be looking at $73.30 per point (but no 2005 points). You might have to pay a small amount of '05 MN fees, but you'd still be around $75 per point.
To take that a step further, if the resale contract had no points available until June 1, 2007, you'd need to deduct 2 years of points from the DVC contract, so you'd be looking at a value of $63.30 per point. Now, in this case you'd still have to pay DVC the MN fees for '06, so you are really looking at around $68/point.
Bottom line... unless you are getting a full loaded SSR contract around $79 and the seller paying MN and closing... buy direct.
If you want a specific resort (other than SSR), you could probably get a decent price via resale, but as usual, ROFR has very little rhym or reason, so who knows.
Good luck!