Another "what would you do?"

[tom1944]

Yeah if you like staying at SSR then points there are a great deal. But I just couldn't bring myself to purchase there thinking that I would sometimes have to stay at that resort when I personally don't want to instead of places like BWV, BCV, RIV, Poly, VGF, BLT, CCV, etc.

I said it before in a different thread before, but I am not putting down DVC levels of money to be disappointed when staying on site. It's a fun purchase and I want to make sure that I can use it to have fun.

I figured the exact opposite. I can buy SSR and the type of room I want and the time of year I will be going will allow those points to be used at BLT, BRV, AKV, BCV, CCR and BWV and Poly. I knew buying resale took Riv out of the plan and I was fine with that.

I also figured I did not want to stay only at one place, so SSR points were as good as any of the other places I was not going to own.

Everyone needs to decide that for themselves.

 

[Tatebeck]

I figured the exact opposite. I can buy SSR and the type of room I want and the time of year I will be going will allow those points to be used at BLT, BRV, AKV, BCV, CCR and BWV and Poly. I knew buying resale took Riv out of the plan and I was fine with that.

I also figured I did not want to stay only at one place, so SSR points were as good as any of the other places I was not going to own.

Everyone needs to decide that for themselves.

I don't think you really read through my analysis. Yes SSR SAP will work, for now. Especially if you want 1br at the other resorts and are very flexible. But it will not always work and it will only get harder with time.

You say you do not only want to stay at one place. But then you bought at a resort that will have the highest risk of having to stay at one place (other than restricted resale points)... that is eventually what you are risking when buying SSR SAP.

 

[Blerghityblergh]

I don't think you really read through my analysis. Yes SSR SAP will work, for now. Especially if you want 1br at the other resorts and are very flexible. But it will not always work and it will only get harder with time.

You say you do not only want to stay at one place. But then you bought at a resort that will have the highest risk of having to stay at one place (other than restricted resale points)... that is eventually what you are risking when buying SSR SAP.

I wonder how the new restricted contracts play into this analysis. As 2042s age out, the new RIV and other resales won’t be able to stay at poly, GFV, etc so the main competition would be direct and old resale post 2042 resorts. Not sure how those numbers shake out but it might be a balancing force?

 

[Tatebeck]

I wonder how the new restricted contracts play into this analysis. As 2042s age out, the new RIV and other resales won’t be able to stay at poly, GFV, etc so the main competition would be direct and old resale post 2042 resorts. Not sure how those numbers shake out but it might be a balancing force?

Restricted resale will be stuck at their respective resorts and won't matter.

New resorts bought direct will be able to trade into the remaining original resorts that resale SSR SAP owners are vying for. And the recent SSR resale owners will have no access to the newer resorts. So it could/should actually make it worse. Unless a lot of people sell their direct restricted resorts turning enough of those points into restricted resale points. So somewhere between neutral and bad for resale SSR owners I would think

 

[Blerghityblergh]

Restricted resale will be stuck at their respective resorts and won't matter.

New resorts bought direct will be able to trade into the remaining original resorts that resale SSR SAP owners are vying for. And the recent SSR resale owners will have no access to the newer resorts. So it could/should actually make it worse. Unless a lot of people sell their direct restricted resorts turning enough of those points into restricted resale points. So somewhere between neutral and bad for resale SSR owners I would think

But if they’re stuck at their respective resorts and comprise a larger share of all DVC owners then it does matter, right? I could, however, see that after 2042 poly, grand Flo, BLT owners etc might be more likely to also just stay at their home resort which would have more SSR owners only having SSR as an option.

I love SSR and we own at a few resorts so I’m not personally worried about it, but I do think there are still unknowns about how the restrictions are going to impact that 7 month availability for “old school” resale owners.

 

[Tatebeck]

But if they’re stuck at their respective resorts and comprise a larger share of all DVC owners then it does matter, right? I could, however, see that after 2042 poly, grand Flo, BLT owners etc might be more likely to also just stay at their home resort which would have more SSR owners only having SSR as an option.

I love SSR and we own at a few resorts so I’m not personally worried about it, but I do think there are still unknowns about how the restrictions are going to impact that 7 month availability for “old school” resale owners.

I think the extent it matters depends on how much of the newer resorts end up being direct vs resale once they each sell out. If they are bought and then resold readily where over 50% of the points are resale eventually then it will have a smaller impact. If members are hesitant to sell their direct points due to the resale restrictions reducing resale value, then it will have a bigger impact.

So it will be a smaller or larger impact on SSR. But a negative impact either way over time because there will be an ever increasing amount of direct points that are able to compete amongst the same remaining original resorts that the SSR SAP crowd will be more and more desperate for.

 

[intamin]

So it will be a smaller or larger impact on SSR. But a negative impact either way over time because there will be an ever increasing amount of direct points that are able to compete amongst the same remaining original resorts that the SSR SAP crowd will be more and more desperate for.

Yeup. It's going to take awhile since they're still selling Poly and Aulani, but the more direct points there are from resale restricted resorts, means there are more and more points that can trade into the O14 that SSR can't trade back into. Sure, when resold, resale restricted resorts can only trade into their home resorts which will help lessen that but even if half the people say at RIV resold their contracts, that's still a few million RIV points that can compete against SSR resale at the O14 that SSR doesn't get a reciprocal trade with. That's just less availability at 7 months.

 

[Jwaire]

Nothing says you can't sell SSR at some point either. We look at some of these contracts as if we are going to keep them forever. That's just not the case for most of us.

I would just find something that fits your budget, but has reasonable dues and if all else fails you wouldn't mind staying there.

 

[Chili327]

A bunch of those points that are leaving are the points that the SSR SAP owners are looking to exchange for at 7 months! So I do not think there will be relief, based on the resorts that are expiring in 2042.

Mostly they are premium locations or off site

Premium locations (compared to SSR)
BCV, BWV, BRV
-These locations most likely have very few members that are using their "premium" points at SSR at 7 months, but there are a ton of SSR members who would love to use their points here at 7 months. Losing these will lower the amount of good options for SSR SAP owners.

Off Site:
HHI, VB
-These locations are off site so it is hard to compare what they are doing at 7 months. If they decide that they want to go to WDW they are just taking what is leftover. Though I am sure they try to use their points at a premium location if available. These expirations may provide a little relief. But some of these locations may also tempt members that hold points at premium locations to use their points here. They may want a beach vacation instead of WDW for example and choose to use their premium points here, while like in the last example they would be less likely to use them at somewhere like SSR. So these may end up being a wash and no help to SSR SAP owners.

Non-premium location:
OKW
-This one is the one you think would provide the most relief, with members at OKW often wanting to trade their points out at better resorts. But because they have shifted to 2057 closing for members that extended or buy direct now (and people are unsure what will actually happen for the members who didn't sign quit claim deeds), it won't provide as much relief as it could have.

So with the resorts closing, we have 3 resorts that will hurt SSR SAP options, 2 that are offsite that will likely be a wash, and 1/2 of one that may provide relief. So effectively 2.5 resorts in the negative for premium resorts for SSR SAP users. And a general reduction in the number of options as well.

Basically it boils down to the same number of SSR points (and an increasing number of "SAP" points as prices drop) competing for a shrinking number of premium sites.

Yea, I guess also, all the new resorts that come on board will be more points in the system that will replace a lot that left. New BWV, New BCV, New BRV, etc.

Yeah if you like staying at SSR then points there are a great deal. But I just couldn't bring myself to purchase there thinking that I would sometimes have to stay at that resort when I personally don't want to instead of places like BWV, BCV, RIV, Poly, VGF, BLT, CCV, etc.

You really can’t go wrong buying where you want to stay. The more I think about it the more I don’t want to diversify and just want to add on BLT and CCV.
I wish OKW(e) dues weren’t in the $10’s already, if they were down in the $8’a I’d add some of those as SAP.

 

[tom1944]

I don't think you really read through my analysis. Yes SSR SAP will work, for now. Especially if you want 1br at the other resorts and are very flexible. But it will not always work and it will only get harder with time.

You say you do not only want to stay at one place. But then you bought at a resort that will have the highest risk of having to stay at one place (other than restricted resale points)... that is eventually what you are risking when buying SSR SAP.

I had an earlier post that explains my feeling about 2042. By then I will be 84 and staying at SSR will be fine.

Also, if I am stuck at SSR all the other owners would be stuck at their specific resort also. It's not like I have SSR so I cannot stay at AKV or CCR but someone who owns at Poly can. It means we all end up stuck at 1 specific resort that we own. By 2042 I did not think that was a problem for us. Others may think differently. That is why this is a unique decision for every purchaser.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I had an earlier post that explains my feeling about 2042. By then I will be 84 and staying at SSR will be fine.

Also, if I am stuck at SSR all the other owners would be stuck at their specific resort also. It's not like I have SSR so I cannot stay at AKV or CCR but someone who owns at Poly can. It means we all end up stuck at 1 specific resort that we own. By 2042 I did not think that was a problem for us. Others may think differently. That is why this is a unique decision for every purchaser.

I had an earlier post that explains my feeling about 2042. By then I will be 84 and staying at SSR will be fine.

Also, if I am stuck at SSR all the other owners would be stuck at their specific resort also. It's not like I have SSR so I cannot stay at AKV or CCR but someone who owns at Poly can. It means we all end up stuck at 1 specific resort that we own. By 2042 I did not think that was a problem for us. Others may think differently. That is why this is a unique decision for every purchaser.

I'll be 87 in 2042. Hope I'm able to even stay DVC. I'm sure I'll like SSR then as I do now.

 

[Tatebeck]

I had an earlier post that explains my feeling about 2042. By then I will be 84 and staying at SSR will be fine.

Also, if I am stuck at SSR all the other owners would be stuck at their specific resort also. It's not like I have SSR so I cannot stay at AKV or CCR but someone who owns at Poly can. It means we all end up stuck at 1 specific resort that we own. By 2042 I did not think that was a problem for us. Others may think differently. That is why this is a unique decision for every purchaser.

I'll be 87 in 2042. Hope I'm able to even stay DVC. I'm sure I'll like SSR then as I do now.

Yeah if you love SSR go ahead, like I said before it is a really good deal. Or in these cases if post 2042 doesn't matter to you due to age etc. then that is fine too. I'll only be around 50ish at that time so I should have at least a few trips left in me post 2042 lol. So I want to keep my points flexible.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

I view direct points through a narrow lens. Give me direction points where booking at 7 months is tough and I still love that way of my wait list doesn’t go thru at 7 months then I’m not too sad. The question is what is your favorite room type/resort where quantity at 7 months is tough vs not so tough then go from there.

 

[BrianLo]

The downside for me, and many other people is that someone is actually going to have to stay in Carousel!!

Ah, this explains my experience at SSR. They couldn’t even be bothered to fully feature my building on the resort map, it actually cuts off the corner.

I’ve now learned preferred or don’t go.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

Ah, this explains my experience at SSR. They couldn’t even be bothered to fully feature my building on the resort map, it actually cuts off the corner.

I’ve now learned preferred or don’t go.

We got "stuck" at Carousel last trip and honestly for us it wasn't bad at all. We are walkers so hopping over to the Carriage House or even DS was not an
inconvenience. The bus stop was close by as well. YMMV.

 

[intamin]

We got "stuck" at Carousel last trip and honestly for us it wasn't bad at all. We are walkers so hopping over to the Carriage House or even DS was not an
inconvenience. The bus stop was close by as well. YMMV.

 

[Spivey378]

Anyone else think of the song “Freedom Isn’t Free” from the movie Team America when they see this thread title?

 

[Chili327]

Anyone else think of the song “Freedom Isn’t Free” from the movie Team America when they see this thread title?

**** Yeah!

 

[BrianLo]

We got "stuck" at Carousel last trip and honestly for us it wasn't bad at all. We are walkers so hopping over to the Carriage House or even DS was not an
inconvenience. The bus stop was close by as well. YMMV.

I will happily walk too. It was a huge combo of things. 2 week quad split stay where SSR had followed VGF, RIV and Jambo house. It was luggage sans car. It was walking past all the rooms I would have rather had. I even did laundry and it felt like I was staying in the afterthought portion of the resort that had no amenities.

The grounds are pretty enough at least.

Also generally unrelated to Carousel, the resort just feels like a half step down in category. The concrete motel vibes don’t scream deluxe. Rotating off superior resorts did not help my impression.

 

[marmentrout85]

Then, in 2042, many of the original resorts will close. There will be far fewer options for those owning resale SSR (and resale at other original resorts too) to trade their points out at. But all of those SSR SAP points will still be there, still looking to book at the remaining resorts. It will most likely be a major bottleneck for those SAP owners.

This was my concern with getting SSR points as well with having fewer options in 2042.

On the other hand though, you also have fewer total points in circulation past 2042 as a result of those resorts expiring.

For example, in 2042 SSR owners theoretically will no longer have to compete with BWV, BCV, and BRV owners at the 7 month mark to get into the monorail resorts. But, then again, you also have fewer resorts for those who own at the monorail resorts to trade into at 7 months as well lol. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Obviously the biggest caveat to this is that it might only be a short-term thing depending on what happens to the 2042 resorts after expiration.