Another nail in the coffin for an Alaska season in '21?

[ajo]

We're booked on the Wonder out of San Diego this Fall. Starting to lose my optimism on it sailing . . .

 

[DisneYE]

So our B2B Baja and then repo to Vancouver was shut down today as has been noted elsewhere. Which then really puts the fall West Coast cruises all in jeopardy. If they ain't going to Vancouver on the 12th, unless they have a plan for a shortened Alaskan season, then I can't see how Wonder would be on the left coast at all this year.

I don't see Canada opening at all this year. So Alaska cruises are gone for this year imo.
Instead, Wonder can sail to Baja, Mazatlan, PV if somehow they are allowed to sail from the west coast late in the year.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I don't see Canada opening at all this year. So Alaska cruises are gone for this year imo.
Instead, Wonder can sail to Baja, Mazatlan, PV if somehow they are allowed to sail from the west coast late in the year.

But to do so would require an empty PC transit, and that is $$$$. PC crossings are already shut down through November as they are more than 7 nights from US ports.

 

[JWelch62]

If the Alaskan cruises don't happen, and I don't think that they will, I would think that the Wonder would not come to the west coast. A lot would depend on the ability to monetize a PC crossing. If they can't sell that cruise I don't see them coming without Alaska. The MX cruises don't have the same return to DCL, they just can't get the same fares. And I say this as someone booked on the Wonder in October. I really don't expect that to happen at this point.

 

[otten]

If the Alaskan cruises don't happen, and I don't think that they will, I would think that the Wonder would not come to the west coast. A lot would depend on the ability to monetize a PC crossing. If they can't sell that cruise I don't see them coming without Alaska. The MX cruises don't have the same return to DCL, they just can't get the same fares. And I say this as someone booked on the Wonder in October. I really don't expect that to happen at this point.

Yea, they can’t do a PC crossing with passengers under the current regulations so that’s already a big problem for bringing the Wonder to the west coast. Add in that Alaska season is almost surely dead and I can’t imagine DCL doing any of the west coast season. The San Diego cruises aren’t going to be worth doing an empty PC transit.

 

[disneylove69]

Even if you could go Biden signed a mandatory quarantine for anyone entering US.

 

[mevelandry]

Even if you could go Biden signed a mandatory quarantine for anyone entering US.

If this doesn’t change until September, we’ll have to reschedule. Imagine, having to quarantine two weeks in the USA, going on vacation for a week, and having to quarantine for another two weeks here in Canada... I would need to use 5 weeks of vacation to be able to do 1 cruise. LOL

 

[otten]

If the US quarantine is enforced cruising is dead until the requirement is lifted. Every cruise passenger would have to quarantine for 2 weeks upon debarkation.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

If the US quarantine is enforced cruising is dead until the requirement is lifted. Every cruise passenger would have to quarantine for 2 weeks upon debarkation.

While state quarantine enforcement has generally been a joke, the fact that these quarantines are on the books would likely have the ports refuse docking.

 

[mevelandry]

If the US quarantine is enforced cruising is dead until the requirement is lifted. Every cruise passenger would have to quarantine for 2 weeks upon debarkation.

I think I remember Biden saying there would be more efforts for 100 days... That would bring us to end of April. Most cruise lines have already suspended sailings until April 31, 2021.

 

[mab2012]

Nothing new in this article. There are some very vocal provincial premiers that want an extremely hard line toward any kind of travel - inbound and outbound.

This is certainly true, and mostly an attempt to deflect attention from the messes in their own backyards, which have almost nothing to do with travel at this point.

The Federal govt wants Canadians vaccinated before allowing international visitors and that won't happen until the end of September at least.

Have you seen this actually stated, or is this just your own personal read of the situation? Genuine question, not meant to be snarky. I ask because I read pretty much every COVID-related piece of local and domestic news I can find, but I've never seen any suggestion from the federal government that widespread vaccination is a specific prerequisite to relaxing border controls.

For the record, I think the odds of the Alaska season happening at all are extremely low. But that doesn't mean that borders will stay closed all summer. With recent US policy changes bringing them in closer alignment with Canada's, and both countries proceeding with vaccination campaigns on similar timelines, I think a reopening of the Canada/US border in particular, to some extent, is at least possible later in the spring or early summer. Depends on how things progress, obviously. And this is definitely just my personal read of the situation!

 

[bcwife76]

This is certainly true, and mostly an attempt to deflect attention from the messes in their own backyards, which have almost nothing to do with travel at this point.



Have you seen this actually stated, or is this just your own personal read of the situation? Genuine question, not meant to be snarky. I ask because I read pretty much every COVID-related piece of local and domestic news I can find, but I've never seen any suggestion from the federal government that widespread vaccination is a specific prerequisite to relaxing border controls.

For the record, I think the odds of the Alaska season happening at all are extremely low. But that doesn't mean that borders will stay closed all summer. With recent US policy changes bringing them in closer alignment with Canada's, and both countries proceeding with vaccination campaigns on similar timelines, I think a reopening of the Canada/US border in particular, to some extent, is at least possible later in the spring or early summer. Depends on how things progress, obviously. And this is definitely just my personal read of the situation!

No you're correct. I misspoke, it wasn't the Prime Minister who said this, more of our local premier here in BC. There is virtually no appetite for international travel in this province right now. This article from a local newspaper here in BC should give you a better idea of how our provincial government feels about BC residents travelling as well as allowing international visitors:
https://www.nsnews.com/coronavirus-...nry-in-plea-to-stem-family-day-travel-3286929
The feeling up here is that the CAN/US land border will not be open for tourism until the Fall at the earliest. While the border falls under federal jurisdiction, the PM listens to all his premiers and none of them are pushing for the border to reopen anytime soon. Also we are having more and more delays with our vaccine shipments

 

[mab2012]

No you're correct. I misspoke, it wasn't the Prime Minister who said this, more of our local premier here in BC. There is virtually no appetite for international travel in this province right now. This article from a local newspaper here in BC should give you a better idea of how our provincial government feels about BC residents travelling as well as allowing international visitors:
https://www.nsnews.com/coronavirus-...nry-in-plea-to-stem-family-day-travel-3286929
The feeling up here is that the CAN/US land border will not be open for tourism until the Fall at the earliest. While the border falls under federal jurisdiction, the PM listens to all his premiers and none of them are pushing for the border to reopen anytime soon. Also we are having more and more delays with our vaccine shipments

Oh, I'm well aware of the travel rhetoric in BC right now. And elsewhere in the country. It's fear and ignorance, mostly. Everyone is looking for someone else to blame. Why look to your own backyard when you can so easily point the finger at "outsiders"? Never mind that we're all one county, with pretty similar policies in place across the country, and that people in BC are really no better, worse, or behaving any differently than those in Ontario or Quebec.

My immediate family are all in rural Nova Scotia. Where there is almost no COVID. And yet, my mother, sister, and niece have all, independently, had relatively close calls with COVID in the past couple of months, to the point of being required to test and/or quarantine due to known exposure. Meanwhile, here in COVID Central, the closest we've come to a COVID case since leaving the Disney Wonder in March was a classmate of my daughter who has been online since the beginning of the year, because his mother works directly with COVID cases. In other words, not close at all.

Individual risk has very little to do with geography.

Anyway, thanks for the clarification. There is definitely a lot of hysteria around travel just at the moment. I think that between vaccinations and improved weather, the COVID situation will improve by spring, and I hope that some degree of reason will come with it. We'll see.

 

[bcwife76]

Oh, I'm well aware of the travel rhetoric in BC right now. And elsewhere in the country. It's fear and ignorance, mostly. Everyone is looking for someone else to blame. Why look to your own backyard when you can so easily point the finger at "outsiders"? Never mind that we're all one county, with pretty similar policies in place across the country, and that people in BC are really no better, worse, or behaving any differently than those in Ontario or Quebec.

My immediate family are all in rural Nova Scotia. Where there is almost no COVID. And yet, my mother, sister, and niece have all, independently, had relatively close calls with COVID in the past couple of months, to the point of being required to test and/or quarantine due to known exposure. Meanwhile, here in COVID Central, the closest we've come to a COVID case since leaving the Disney Wonder in March was a classmate of my daughter who has been online since the beginning of the year, because his mother works directly with COVID cases. In other words, not close at all.

Individual risk has very little to do with geography.

Anyway, thanks for the clarification. There is definitely a lot of hysteria around travel just at the moment. I think that between vaccinations and improved weather, the COVID situation will improve by spring, and I hope that some degree of reason will come with it. We'll see.

The travel industry has definitely been a target of the govt here in BC Tonight there was a Town hall with the PHO (Bonnie Henry) and the health minister (Dix). Several travel related questions of course from the public and my take away was still there is a hard line against travel. Don't plan on travelling outside of BC until at least summer. And if you are planning family functions this summer, keep them small and don't expect to have international visitors attend.

 

[sonnyjane]

The travel industry has definitely been a target of the govt here in BC Tonight there was a Town hall with the PHO (Bonnie Henry) and the health minister (Dix). Several travel related questions of course from the public and my take away was still there is a hard line against travel. Don't plan on travelling outside of BC until at least summer. And if you are planning family functions this summer, keep them small and don't expect to have international visitors attend.

Just piling on the bad news. For work we listened in on a Transport Canada meeting today (I work in tourism) and they said they expect to extend the ban on cruise ships of more than 100 passengers “well into the summer” and potentially all year. They said they’re struggling with the decision of whether to cancel the season now vs. leave some "sliver of hope" for the cruise industry (their words).

 

[mevelandry]

(...)
Anyway, thanks for the clarification. There is definitely a lot of hysteria around travel just at the moment. I think that between vaccinations and improved weather, the COVID situation will improve by spring, and I hope that some degree of reason will come with it. We'll see.

Recent articles in my area show the contrary, in December there was hundreds of COVID cases coming from travelers who infected other family members... and other people because they « relaxed their quarantine ».

The UK variant didn’t magically appear in Canada.

Are travellers the main source of COVID, no. But we can’t ignore it either.

 

[mab2012]

Recent articles in my area show the contrary, in December there was hundreds of COVID cases coming from travelers who infected other family members... and other people because they « relaxed their quarantine ».

The UK variant didn’t magically appear in Canada.

Are travellers the main source of COVID, no. But we can’t ignore it either.

Yes. A couple hundred travel related cases across the course of a month, in a province that was registering closer to two thousand cases a day.

We're hardly in danger of "ignoring it". On the contrary, it is getting a ridiculously disproportionate amount of attention. If we spent more time focusing on the 20% of situations that are causing 80% of the actual transmission, we might actually be a little better off.

 

[mevelandry]

Yes. A couple hundred travel related cases across the course of a month, in a province that was registering closer to two thousand cases a day.

We're hardly in danger of "ignoring it". On the contrary, it is getting a ridiculously disproportionate amount of attention. If we spent more time focusing on the 20% of situations that are causing 80% of the actual transmission, we might actually be a little better off.

Let’s agree to disagree. I believe every single « source » is important.

As for the 80% of the actual transmission you are talking about, we are currently under lock downs and all the long term care centers have been vaccinated in priority. The army was there for months. If that’s not «main focus », I don’t know what is.

 

[yowcruiser]

Looks like our Canadian Prime Minister is going to "cave in" to provincial pressure (and arguable the court of public opinion) and announce more stringent measures for incoming travelers. Announcement is expected around 11:30am ET. Although some may use such announcement, whatever it may be, as a proof that Alaska is/isn't going to happen - unless there is a specific end date announced that goes beyond June, this announcement would still mean very little on the odds of an Alaskan cruising season.

Not looking to add fuel to the debate on whether travelers are a significant source of transmission or not... we each have our threshold of what is significant or not. I do feel for our health workers that in many cases are stretched to the limit, and can generally support the idea that one more case in hospital/ICU at this point in time is just one too many cases... hence potentially enhanced restrictions.

Now, as other have stated, there is also a US angle to all of this as the ship primarily visits US ports, and whatever the US administration advise will also have consequences

It is what it is, and we'll know when we'll know...

 

[mab2012]

Let’s agree to disagree.

Sure.

As for the 80% of the actual transmission you are talking about, we are currently under lock downs and all the long term care centers have been vaccinated in priority. The army was there for months. If that’s not «main focus », I don’t know what is.

I wasn't specifically talking about LTC homes. They have been the source of a very high proportion of deaths, certainly, but they are not the drivers of transmission.

What I meant was that public health measures (and there are many) that target lower risk situations do little, or often even nothing, to reduce overall spread, and may actually do more harm than good, since they distract from the few things that actually DO matter.

But we're starting to veer a bit off-topic, so I'll leave my comments at that. And since we've already established that we disagree on the point of whether all sources of transmission must be eliminated, we're unlikely to agree on this anyway.