It depends on how many different tickets you need to get. 1 10 day trip is a huge loss of money, but 2 5 day tickets it's cheaper to get an annual pass.
What I recommend you do, build a cart on disney's website for what your tickets look like for all the trips you know you'll be taking in the next year (or 13 months if your going to buy the passes before jan). Did that come out more money than getting annual passes?
Other factors that it makes a big different to add to the cost you got in the cart.
1: would you buy memory maker for the trips? add in the cost of memory maker for each trip you would get it, you get free photopass downloads with an AP and don't need memory maker.
2: do you stay offsite? add in the cost of parking ($20 per day at a park) to the cost of the tickets.
3: do you add park hopping? don't forget to add that option in your cart when your getting the real ticket price.
4: tickets go up yearly, it will be a small amoutn more than your cart came out to be after a year of trips.
Now there are other factors like will the AP discount on food save you money (if you pay out of pocket with no discount, it's maybe. If you get the meal plan again it's maybe but leaning on probably). If you spend another $150 to get the tables in wonderland card, would that save you money vs the meal plan (probably), it also includes alcohol if you partake in them while at WDW. Also factor in the quick services with these discounts, many overlook that places like saratoga springs, values and some moderates like pofq do not have table service so their quick service is discounted with tables in wonderland. also the current 45th year ap discounts includes some counter services as well.
and last, what's your merchandise spending look like? there's a really good discount on merch right now for the AP.. If you dont buy merch but you get bottles of water or soda from the vendors, you can get an ap discount on them if you go into any gift shop that has a fridge of them. no a huge savings but it all adds up.
Rooms I wouldn't factor into the cost of the ap. you might get luck but honestly, most of them are too last minute and odd rooms I don't want that it's not worth switching from a great other discount.