One does need to be realistic and run the numbers. I totally agree.
Since that is your view, I am surprised you value the AP room discount so much. In all of our five trips last year, the AP room discount price was more expensive than booking the general public discount through Orbitz or Cheap Tickets and taking their 10-20% additional discount. A few hundred less actually, with our 6 night April stay at BWI and YC.
Of all of the perks of being an AP holder, the room discount seemed to be one of the least value for us. It was nice to be able to book the AP discount earlier and later (AP discount usually bookable for last minute stays) than the public offer, but we usually ended up cancelling our AP discount booking through Disney and going with Orbitz or CT for the same room at a lower price.