We decided on the Deluxe b/c it's pretty easy to work around the blocked out dates. Well, except for DS's b'day...we really thought that they would have the DEP and Fantasmic on Memorial Day (DS's actual b'day this year), but it turns out they aren't, so we're likely paying the $40 each for a blockout pass to get in that Sunday. None of us have ever seen Fantasmic and DS and DH haven't seen the Electrical Parade, so we'll probably do that.
Other than that, though, it's been easy to avoid planning on blocked out days.
I don't know where you're driving from, but as for hotels, especially if you're not going at the crazy-busy times, you can find deals. With an AP, HoJo offers a 20% discount! (if you can't get the Entertainment Book discount that's extra-special for just the Anaheim HoJo) Last year in the Fall the Disney hotels had some *amazing* deals for AP holders ("amazing" being relative of course).
But that still doesn't help with the drive costs.
Editing to add our breakeven point. We had a 5 day hopper with our package deal, and we upgraded to APs on that trip. At the time the Deluxe was 239, and the adult hoppers had a value of 189 each, I believe. So we paid the difference between the two, and voila, we had an AP! We knew that we would be coming back to DLR at least *one* day during the year to visit my brother in San Diego, and just that one day ticket plus the 5 day would have brought our total to MORE than the Deluxe AP. So that was our breakeven point, even without the food discounts (and opportunity last December to buy, by mail, the POTC 3 disc along with a special matted print they sold at
Disneyland on the day POTC3 was released).