Annual Pass Rumors??

[Liquidice]

If you are on your phone app and on their wi-fi they know where you are.

Not as accurately as you might think - Wifi can give you about 20m (or ~60 feet) of accuracy on location and if there are enough WiFi APs to triangulate your position it is 5-10 meters (or 16-32 feet). Still not really enough to know you are for sure buying something, but combined with payment data - they certainly could (assuming you are using a form of payment they can easily link to you).

So in terms of building a profile specifically about you - they may not always have a complete picture, but can probably build an estimation.

But they more than likely have a decent macro view that they can use, the only thing I would still question is whether they are doing a good enough job analyzing the data.

 

[DeeBee3]

Do you work for Disney and know this for a fact? I am asking because I am truly curious, not trying to say you are wrong. The reason why it surprises me is because location based data by itself is not accurate enough to tell where you are exactly. It is accurate to within about 5m or 16 feet, which is fine for car navigation but not for something like who is standing at the register. Some more advanced systems can get to 1m accuracy or 3 ft but it is very expensive and it would surprise me if Disney did this.

Sorry, I was away from "fun time" on Disboards. No, I do not work for Disney. We are all conjecturing here unless someone works there. Just coming from a general technology viewpoint, but Brian explained all of that well so I won't add.

My main point is that Disney has a lot of data on consumers. I think it's a large enough chunk that those small sections that don't use smartphones or magic bands won't make much difference to their number crunching.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Did you register your Disney Gift card in their system? That’s linked directly to your account.

Since gift cards can be used in many places it wouldn't necessarily give them an idea of patterns. I used Disney gift cards a few years ago online to buy a Vera Bradley Disney purse. We used some left over Disney cards from 2017 in 2022 and we still have some monies left over from that 2022 trip that we'll likely save.

While I'm not an AP holder the base point still stands.

 

[middlechild]

Keep in mind that TWDC does not need data from any one specific person. You may not be tracked, or become a data point, to be included in a trend line. The guy beside you, or gal behind you, may be giving off lots of data. Now there are three points to establish a trend. For instance, 10% through turnstiles used some type of pass. Compare to last year when it was 12%. We can conclude AP attendance is down. Register data shows 30% of sales asked for discount, compared to 20% last year. So now we conclude that fewer AP guests are in the park but they are spending more often. The data set for one Disney park would be in the jazillions of bytes. Enough to see the trend. So go out and be safe, and rest well at night knowing that you are safely hidden.
I sleep well at night knowing TWDC does not want any of my habits or patterns, because I am no longer in the target demographic. My DDs would be, and they think nothing of privacy concerns as expressed on this thread. And neither of them had considered an AP in any sense.

 

[bsmcneil]

Once I walk on property, they can track spending, fine. I know that and frankly don't care.
Point is, how do they know if I'm there on property for them to track 2 times extra with the AP or 10 times extra?
They don't.
So they don't know anything about how much the AP I hold is gaining them in the way of money. Or not gaining them.
That's all I'm saying. Unless they can read my mind and know how many additional trips I am taking because I hold an AP they do not know which of those trips they are tracking are from me having an AP and which are not. Maybe I'd be there the same number, maybe not. They do not know. If they think every out of state AP holder is there the same amount, they are probably wrong. I suspect most are making more trips than they would without an AP. So in that aspect, I am betting those AP holders are bringing in additional money

And I'm not touchy, you are missing the point.

I disagree. Business students and later executives do good work in modeling; while obviously not every individual can be predicted, with a large enough data set (and AP holders over the years provide that), surveys can give them a decent sense of what trips would happen, etc. While you are special and unique (to not offend you), in terms of being an AP holder - you're really not.

For what it's worth (and I get most people will think that it's not worth much), it seems like a stretch to say that "unfavorable" is so supremely wrong. Like - it's a pretty value neutral term (and I get that people feel entitled to better treatment - but it's not like it was disdainful in any way).

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

For what it's worth (and I get most people will think that it's not worth much), it seems like a stretch to say that "unfavorable" is so supremely wrong. Like - it's a pretty value neutral term (and I get that people feel entitled to better treatment - but it's not like it was disdainful in any way).

TBH I think a lot of that comes from the perception over the last very recent years. Disney hasn't been shying away from being blunt in who they want in the parks and their reasoning for certain decisions. Once you tell people it'll be good on their waistlines (paraphrasing) to have reduced portions you've sorta jumped to a different territory. Combine that with how they've been been reducing AP stuff as far as what they give and I get it, saying you're unfavorable is like a slap in the face. All of this stuff and it's not that far fetched to think they are saying unfavorable in some sort of way.

 

[DVCjj]

Anyone think it's possible that Disney will not allow outside food and beverages in the parks? They certainly would make more money that way.
Yes, they'd lose some families but I feel they lose far more $ from the 'cooler crowd' now, while sensitive about the multiple trip AP holders not spending enough money. (I'm a DVC AP holder and take it from me, we spend tons of money with each trip). It's almost laughable they think we don't spend.

I remember how shocked I was to see coolers and picnic lunches using the Pecos Bill's table when actual Pecos customers had nowhere to sit. I couldn't believe Disney even allowed personal food, all the more so with Covid still hanging around.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Anyone think it's possible that Disney will not allow outside food and beverages in the parks? They certainly would make more money that way.
Yes, they'd lose some families but I feel they lose far more $ from the 'cooler crowd' now, while sensitive about the multiple trip AP holders not spending enough money. (I'm a DVC AP holder and take it from me, we spend tons of money with each trip). It's almost laughable they think we don't spend.

I remember how shocked I was to see coolers and picnic lunches using the Pecos Bill's table when actual Pecos customers had nowhere to sit. I couldn't believe Disney even allowed personal food, all the more so with Covid still hanging around.

Warning, this post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinion.

Some people have legitimate dietary restrictions for bona fide health reasons.

 

[focusondisney]

Anyone think it's possible that Disney will not allow outside food and beverages in the parks? They certainly would make more money that way.
Yes, they'd lose some families but I feel they lose far more $ from the 'cooler crowd' now, while sensitive about the multiple trip AP holders not spending enough money. (I'm a DVC AP holder and take it from me, we spend tons of money with each trip). It's almost laughable they think we don't spend.

I remember how shocked I was to see coolers and picnic lunches using the Pecos Bill's table when actual Pecos customers had nowhere to sit. I couldn't believe Disney even allowed personal food, all the more so with Covid still hanging around.

When we started going in the early 90s & were researching, I always read “no outside food“. No idea when it changed. I’m kind of surprised they allow so much too.

 

[DVCjj]

Some people have legitimate dietary restrictions for bona fide health reasons.

True but most do not I could bet. Plus bona fide health reasons can be accommodated by many of the restaurants. Definitely the sit down ones and I'm sure even many of the QS.

 

[New Mouse]

The restaurants wouldn't be able to meet the demand


It's shocking how company officials are allowed to be so misleading during these things.

 

[Liquidice]

I disagree. Business students and later executives do good work in modeling; while obviously not every individual can be predicted, with a large enough data set (and AP holders over the years provide that), surveys can give them a decent sense of what trips would happen, etc. While you are special and unique (to not offend you), in terms of being an AP holder - you're really not.

For what it's worth (and I get most people will think that it's not worth much), it seems like a stretch to say that "unfavorable" is so supremely wrong. Like - it's a pretty value neutral term (and I get that people feel entitled to better treatment - but it's not like it was disdainful in any way).

So Disney is certainly generalizing - but if you fall into the "unfavorable" category - you're saying there's nothing wrong with being labeled as such? If I'm a CM working at Disney, the messaging from my leadership is now that if you're an AP holder, you're an unfavorable guest - so treating you as someone who is unfavorable is no big deal right? I can give preference to the favorable guests.

Can you see how this can have a trickle down effect? When you're a leader, what you say matters and can have unforeseen implications - even if in your mind you're talking strictly about financials - the people who work for you may apply what you said in different ways.

Since you think it is a neutral term - would you be cool if Disney asked you and everyone else they deemed unfavorable to wear a shirt saying "unfavorable guest" around the parks? It is a value neutral term.

I'm a little surprised that you think people are acting entitled to be thought of as more than unfavorable though, especially if you're spending significant amounts of money.

Just so we're clear here - the word unfavorable means "expressing or showing a lack of approval or support" or "not pleasing" - a synonym for "unfavorable" is "negative".

I will say though that Freshbaked had an interesting video saying that Disney may not be applying the "unfavorable guest mix" to all Magic Key holders. What he believes Disney meant was that because the Park Pass bucket is the same for all Magic Key holders, the lower tiers are taking all of the weekend dates that are not blacked out months in advance, causing the higher tiers who don't book Park Passes months in advance (since they aren't blacked out) to be blocked from getting Park Passes on those weekends. That is his assessment of the "unfavorable guest mix".

I honestly don't think it tracks with what Chapek was talking about though, as he was focused on Disneyland ticket revenue when he talked about "unfavorable attendance mix" - meaning too many APs were coming to the parks and lowering ticket revenue.

The weird thing is on the transcript of the earnings call I can't find the words "unfavorable" or "attendance mix" ... https://seekingalpha.com/article/45...k-on-q3-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

[Upatnoon]

Unfavorable guest mix likely just means they had full parks with more season pass holders than regular ticket buyers.

Extreme favorable mix = All guests buying 1-day tickets with hopper option. They all bought dessert parties, oddles of souvenirs and ate three character meals. They wrapped up the day buying 500 DVC points.
Extreme unfavorable mix = All guests were there via the cheapest annual pass. They didn't buy anything and spent most of the day getting free water at quick-service restaurants.

There is a business side to Disney. They want to maximize revenue. It isn't some personal slight. It's just business.

For example, some restaurants award servers for "good tickets." What is a good ticket? It's a ticket where the customers bought the most high-margin items, like alcoholic drinks and desserts.

This doesn't mean the restaurant doesn't want all guests there, or they are mad if you don't order a drink and a dessert, but they are steering their staff to move customers in the direction of spending more.

In the end, no matter what the customer ordered, they should experience good service. But as a business, you want to get more money out of your customers if you can.

Thus, Disney works to move its attendance toward a mix of people who spend more. Disney has a mountain of data and can use it to help boost guest spending. They have millions of guests, so little nudges and adjustments can make a big difference.

These tactics are all over the business world. Big data has made them even more powerful.

 

[fumanchu2488]

I think people are missing a larger point. I saw a few comments that were along the lines of “with AP I would come 3 times now I’m only coming for 7 days”. Sure, that individual is spending less money. But demand for these vacations are so high that your 2nd and 3rd visits are being filled by individual ticket guests. Paying the same for hotels, food and travel and more for the tickets. So Disney is making way more money per guest. Look at 2023 hotel availability. It’s crazy booked up already.

Lastly, as far as modeling or predicting guest behavior I am not sure the predictions matter as much as the ideal guest. A perfect scenario for Disney is to have their hotels fully booked with families of 4 (maybe 5) people buying individual tickets for probably 5-7 days once a year buying Genie+, ILL and all the other fixings. That is what gives them the most money. If they can price tickets and hotels and get as many as those people as possible that is best.

So until this revenge travel slows down and demand at the parks decreases they really have little to no incentive to offer a ton of APs.

 

[Marionnette]

But demand for these vacations are so high that your 2nd and 3rd visits are being filled by individual ticket guests.

That only holds true if every park is sold out every day. And they aren't. If I don't go, there isn't someone in a wait list taking my place. If I go, I'm not preventing someone else who spends more from also going.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

…
So until this revenge travel slows down and demand at the parks decreases they really have little to no incentive to offer a ton of APs.

Warning, this post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinion.

I understood your point that former passholders declaring they would take fewer trips and Disney would lose their revenue is a fallacy. I agree with Marionnette if the parks are not sold out.

But you assumed the current demand is still driven by revenge travel. You possibly assumed the sale of new annual passes would return when revenge travel is past. Others think recession will lighten demand. Both appear to be outdated forecasts.

In Chapek’s statements in the Q3 2022 Earnings call this week he addressed that and said the current high level of demand exceeding capacity offered at the parks is no longer driven by revenge travel. His information is this is the new normal. Further, it is projected to continue for the foreseeable future despite a recession. Chapek and McCarthy too indicated the controls they have with park reservations, buckets and adjusting blockout dates are sufficient to manage decreasing or increasing demand. They also said they have already fixed the number of annual passes sold and outstanding.

All of this is in the transcript of the call. It is watershed information. It is a sea change for passholders.

 

[New Mouse]

People are missing the key word here.... the demand is exceeding the level we set.

Nothing is said about the attendance level being lower than usual (which it is) or how low it actually is.

There is not record demand, the demand is just more than they can actually handle or choose to handle.

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

I understood your point that former passholders declaring they would take fewer trips and Disney would lose their revenue is a fallacy. I agree with Marionnette if the parks are not sold out.

But you assumed the current demand is still driven by revenge travel. You possibly assumed the sale of new annual passes would return when revenge travel is past. Others think recession will lighten demand. Both appear to be outdated forecasts.

In Chapek’s statements in the Q3 2022 Earnings call this week he addressed that and said the current high level of demand exceeding capacity offered at the parks is no longer driven by revenge travel. His information is this is the new normal. Further, it is projected to continue for the foreseeable future despite a recession. Chapek and McCarthy too indicated the controls they have with park reservations, buckets and adjusting blockout dates are sufficient to manage decreasing or increasing demand. They also said they have already fixed the number of annual passes sold and outstanding.

All of this is in the transcript of the call. It is watershed information. It is a sea change for passholders.

I get this, but it is also all forecasting. Time will tell what will happen. The bottom line is people have less extra money to spend right now and that will make impacts, just depends how and where,

While the parks are still crowded this nothing like they were in 2019 and early 2020 before Covid hit, back then they were so slammed packed you could barely move. Now even on a sold out day the crowds are manageable . I really think they are trying to find the balance of bringing in more money from each person and have a better experience than smashing tons in for less and have a poorer experience.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I get this, but it is also all forecasting. Time will tell what will happen. The bottom line is people have less extra money to spend right now and that will make impacts, just depends how and where,

While the parks are still crowded this nothing like they were in 2019 and early 2020 before Covid hit, back then they were so slammed packed you could barely move. Now even on a sold out day the crowds are manageable . I really think they are trying to find the balance of bringing in more money from each person and have a better experience than smashing tons in for less and have a poorer experience.

Warning, this post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinion.

Yes, it is forecasting, but it is not my extrapolation and prediction. It is Chapek’s and McCarthy’s and their advisors. Professional forecasting based on data, experience and accepted professional methods of business modeling.

They included people having less money, numbers in attendance and other underlying facts your post referenced. Their statements referenced 2019 attendance comparisons, going away from high volume goals, emphasizing guest experience and the resulting increases in per capita spend.

Still, after including and factoring in the impact of all of that, the levers for control referenced by Chapek and McCarthy were the new advantage of being able to respond in real time and adjusting blackouts of existing passholders as the go to tools for management.

We are already in a recession. The definition of a recession is two quarters of contracting economic performance. So this Q3 call might already reflect impacts and forecast impacts.

This is a new normal. Many Disney watchers and specialty blog/vlog/forums are forecasting that new sales of annual passes might not return. There are even articles in mainstream media and financial news stating the same. Of course time will tell. But that is always the case with any professional forecast or amature opinion. But it does not effectively debunk the value of a professional forecast; especially when used as part of a CEO’s presentation to investors as required by law. There are factors of credibility and reliability there not present in a consumer’s biased, wishful thinking.

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

People are missing the key word here.... the demand is exceeding the level we set.

Nothing is said about the attendance level being lower than usual (which it is) or how low it actually is.

There is not record demand, the demand is just more than they can actually handle or choose to handle.

Well said. They still don't have every restaurant and experience open yet or running full capacity.

Yes, it is forecasting, but it is not my extrapolation and prediction. It is Chapek’s and McCarthy’s and their advisors. Professional forecasting based on data, experience and accepted professional methods of business modeling.

They included people having less money, numbers in attendance and other underlying facts your post referenced. Their statements referenced 2019 attendance comparisons, going away from high volume goals, emphasizing guest experience and the resulting increases in per capita spend.

Still, after including and factoring in the impact of all of that, the levers for control referenced by Chapek and McCarthy were the new advantage of being able to respond in real time and adjusting blackouts of existing passholders as the go to tools for management.

We are already in a recession. The definition of a recession is two quarters of contracting economic performance. So this Q3 call might already reflect impacts and forecast impacts.

This is a new normal. Many Disney watchers and specialty blog/vlog/forums are forecasting that new sales of annual passes might not return. There are even articles in mainstream media and financial news stating the same. Of course time will tell. But that is always the case with any professional forecast or amature opinion. But it does not effectively debunk the value of a professional forecast; especially when used as part of a CEO’s presentation to investors as required by law. There are factors of credibility and reliability there not present in a consumer’s biased, wishful thinking.

I agree, but I it is also every changing. Forecasts change, goals change and so on. In time I think AP's will return when who knows. AP's aren't all bad and they know that. The ones that travel to use them are a different group than the locals that clog up the parks every time something new is for sale, or first day for things and that makes a negative environment for less frequent or first time guests.

They need to find a better balance for those that go more than once a year but don't need the frequency of an AP.