"so to the extent you had lightened demand, you could loosen up some of those to bring more people back to the park..."
The phrase 'some of those' in that sentence refers to the 'limited number of annual passes that we have' in the first paragraph.
To me that statement implies that IF demand drops in the future (i.e. lower daily park attendance due to recession) Disney's only intended remedy is to loosen the number of blackout dates FOR THE AP'S THAT ARE CURRENRLY SOLD--and not to resume selling new AP's.
I've seen a lot of posts from non-AP holders (like me) who are hopeful that they'll start selling new AP's again in a recession or once the post-Covid 'revenge travel' dies down. But looking at what was said vs not said (loosen blackout dates vs resume new sales) by Disney as their current thinking for a contingency plan, I'm afraid that's a false hope...
Warning. This reply post may contain speculation, conjecture or opinion.
Sadly, I tend to agree. I don't see MK renewals, AP new sales or anything like that in the near term future. I think looking to a recession prying them loose is a false hope.
1. We have new data I have suspected for a while. Christine McCarthy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, who also clearly qualifies legally as a “person most knowledgeable” has stated a new fact: DISNEY HAS SET AN EXPRESS LIMIT ON THE NUMBER OF ANNUAL PASSES THEY WILL SELL AND ALLOW TO BE OUTSTANDING. So, until enough people forfeit their annual passes, they will not sell them again.
2. She referenced using only one tool to bring more people into the parks; loosening blackout dates. However, even when they add a bonus day for passholders, if it lands on a Sunday, the Pixie passholders who are blocked on Sunday cannot make the reservation. The effect of a bonus day is it does not count against the limit on the number of park holds.
3. Ticket holders and passholders who choose from the resort bucket (bucket #1) because they are staying in a Disney resort or one of the 15 huge Orlando area resort hotels that pay Disney so their guests who are passholders can get bucket #1 on-site privileges. So, to make easing blockout restrictions effective for bringing more people into the parks, this has to target those passholders in bucket #2. Those would be, mostly Florida residents, not using the resort reservation bucket and most likely local.
4. To make this tool most effective and not interfere with more favorable guests, it would be short notice availability. Almost zero planning lead time. That favors local passholders, like the Pixie passes they continue to sell.
5. She said they could bring more of those people into the park … and just enjoy the park and spend some money. The statement envisions a lack of connection booking a resort. Couple this with the fact that only resort guests in bucket #1 do the advance planning and advance dining reservations, the good stuff is already taken by the time local passholders can book one of their three days. So they just enjoy the ambiance of the parks and spend some money. The bucket #2 passholders are severely throttled by Disney’s own design.
6. If Disney wins the lawsuit and they are enabled to manipulate the park reservations at will without restraint, then they may sell an unlimited number of annual passes and just heavily use the throttling levers on those unfortunate souls in bucket #2. You know — the marginally less valuable guests, the unfavorable attendance mix guests, the ones not the right mix, the deplorables. The class certification motion is expected to ne ruled on in January 2023. If that happens the trial is expected in about July 2023.
Immediately after AP sales ceased on November 21, 2021, a Disney employee said they were expected to return in 2022. I doubt that employee had the picture of the lawsuit and the amount of time, the travel serge and that duration, the scarcity of employees, or the other many factors that caused Disney to pause sales. What we know today is after that time, Disney has set a finite number on how many annual passes they will have outstanding. That tells me sales are probably not seasonal. If new sales open up again it may be for days or just hours to fill those who did not renew.
Lately, recessions do not last very long. But sales of new annual passes with the expectation of renewal could last decades. So, even a recession is less likely to trigger new annual pass sales. Disney is focused on opening availability for throttled passholders who already have APs. That means bucket#2. Because they love park reservations and buckets. Those are not going away.