Annual Pass Rumors??

[Mexacajun]

I agree 100% or DVC AP.

I would be fine with DVC AP but if they wanted to be more inclusive it could just be resort guest AP.

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

I don't get the perception that AP holders don't spend as much money in the parks as a day ticket guest. Someone who is willing to make the cash outlay for an AP seems to be a much more invested fan who would be more likely to want to accumulate Disney merchandise, pay for unique Disney experiences, etc.

But the frequent AP visitor also has more opportunity to develop money saving strategies, guests presumably have a limit on the number of souvenirs they will buy, infrequent visitors might be more motivated to throw money at unique Disney experiences to make the most of their limited time. But the best reason to believe that AP holders don’t spend as much per capita is because Chapek said so. I am certain Disney knows who is spending money in their parks and just how much.

We are AP and we spend way less now than when we weren't or first were AP's. We do spend quite a bit don't get me wrong but in 3 days not nearly as much as that first time guest or someone that goes only ever few years. Between not needing more stuff, to not needing to do every meal and snack and finding ways to things cheaper it all helps in lowering our spending. I have friends that are AP and do only day trips and spend virtually nothing in the park, they pack there lunch and snacks don't buy the stuff and do no extras while they are the norm you don't see that as likely with first time people.

There is also the issue that the APs (more so the local ones) also are the ones that cause problems like that figment popcorn bucket that ends up looking negative on Disney.

Now I don't agree with how they phrased it at all. I almost see the bigger issue is that they keep building rooms ,more DVC rooms (that tend to always be filled vs deluxe rooms that often sat empty) and not expanding the parks to accommodate all the extra people they are housing.

 

[Mrs.AMC]

There’s one thing that all the data analysis in the world can’t tell them about this AP holder, and I assume all others, how many trips are taken just because someone has an AP. So from that aspect, no, they have no clue about spending and AP. I mean, do they know if I'd make 2, or 5 trips a year? They can make an assumption but you know what assumptions are, wrong as much as they are right. There is no way they can read anyone's mind.
If they make any assumption, they should assume the AP means MORE trips a year. More trips means more spent, not less. If you count the entire year that is. Not in an individual trip.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Warning. Post contains speculation, conjecture and opinion.

I have been thinking about Mr. Chapek’s and Ms McCarthy’s comments DLR Magic Key Holders and WDW Annual Passholders. They chose language like this: “unfavorable mix”, “Annual Passholders do not bring as much value to the company”, “ different guests, depending on where they are coming from, have different relative values”, “someone who travels … more valuable than … someone who comes in on an annual pass … “, blaming lower than optimal revenue on the higher proportion of local Passholders, etc. Then there is there conduct of capping the sale of APs without notice, not renewing while in the renewal windows and thwarting the attendance of APs with the bucket system. In park, they have stand-by lines and for those who pay more, Genie+ and lightening lanes. Mostly the infrequent visitor pays the extra, leaving passholders the more likely person to stand with their family in the heat while the paid line jumpers — even those past their window— are preferred guests.

Commentators talk about “leaving a bad taste” and posters speak openly about being offended. It feels like a parent having two children and openly talking about loving one more than the other in their presence. Enough already. This is very unseemly behavior from a CEO or CFO. A guest is a guest. A good host makes all guests welcome. Why divide them against each other?

I am beginning to think there is a different, unspoken and unpublicized reason for Chapek’s and McCarthy’s adoration of the park reservation and bucket system.

I find it extremely coincidental that at WDW Disney has so many Disney owned resort rooms (90% occupied) now AND has financial contracts with 15 other non-Disney owned ginormous resort hotels near WDW — all arranged post shutdown — and must have room for all of these for length of stay. Clap on top of that the new Disney imposed lower attendance caps. (Part of the terms and conditions of the contracts with the 15 other hotels?) These hotels appear to pay Disney so their APs and ticketed guests can get “length of stay” park reservations and not be limited by the paltry number of park reservation holds that can be held based on the AP tier alone. Perhaps this new stream of revenue is part of what is counted in the 40% increase in per capita per day guest spending? All ticket holders and APs staying on-site or in Disney good neighbor program paying hotels, making reservations from the resort bucket get to choose from bucket #1. Everyone else, which includes most local passholders picks from bucket #2 and are limited to the holds limits.

How might they do this? The good neighbor hotels pay Disney and bake the cost of that contract into hotel room prices. That also helps raise the market prices for Disney owned hotels. For example if the per cap difference is 40% higher, that is not that much of an increase in a big Orlando resort hotel room price. Especially not when they can offer length of stay admission — bypassing the park hold limits — early entry, extra hours etc? For Disney, they do not have to work so hard on selling merch etc to make that additional revenue now provided by the additional bucket #1 guests and their sponsoring hotels.

So this appears to me to be more than an issue of spending stingy-ness of locals or others in bucket#2. It could well be driven more by those lucrative contracts with the 15 hotels and the profitability of DVC sales. It is so much easier to manage a business that has a reliable stream of income from a reliable source — such as the 15 contracting hotels nearby. Just think of this. When WDW started park reservations and the limited number of park reservation holds, it created a destructive fireball through the business of the luxury resort hotels in Orlando. Can you imagine! Peeps could not get more than 3 to 5 days of park reservations. So they were not booking the big luxury hotels like they did. The hotels went to Disney to strike a deal. How much to bypass the limits? They came to a number. Room prices soared. Now Disney bad-mouths certain passholders. But the value issues might be baked into other numbers that are not so easy to see. But Disney must keep enough park space for them and needs to have a quality guest experience that is not a max crowded park. In that contract? Who knows. I would love to read one.

If they can fill the parks with ticketed guests and APs in resorts and good neighbor hotels, they will never need more than a few bucket #2 APs — if any.

 

[HopperFan]

Is it just me or is that a great big non announcement?

That is a click bait website that either "takes" other's content, including their photos or offers absolutely nothing. Don't look to them for anything.

I don't get the perception that AP holders don't spend as much money in the parks as a day ticket guest. Someone who is willing to make the cash outlay for an AP seems to be a much more invested fan who would be more likely to want to accumulate Disney merchandise, pay for unique Disney experiences, etc.

I think there is a misconception that AP don't spend as much in parks. What people never seem to remember is that the MAJORITY of the WDW park guests are staying off property. They are eating off property. They are going to Universal, SeaWorld and often are giving Disney a small percentage of their budget.

Disney World Hotel guests are committed but their numbers are much smaller. If Disney were to focus only on them they would be running WDW in the RED. Disney needs offsite guests and AP guests.

As far as AP, yes perhaps a local AP might pop in and out but they are also the ones not blinking at drink prices and spending an afternoon dropping a bundle at the Nomad Lounge while not taking up space on attractions.

But the majority of the AP holders do not live in Orlando. They live all over Florida and elsewhere, they need hotels and they need food. For the last 15 years I have been traveling to WDW 5-6 weeks per year, needing hotels, food etc. But BECAUSE I have an AP I don't hesitate to book special events, eat expensive meals, buy alcoholic drinks at stupid prices and shop. When I didn't have an AP that money was restricted, our souvenirs were minimal, snacks never ever happened. AP holders don't have that ticket price hanging over them so they can spend more, and in my case for 30-40 days per year I can spend in the parks.

AP's are like Disney putting money in escrow to use how they wish while the AP holder is still spending in the parks and resorts. My free parking and 10% dining discount don't hurt them at all. My spending is probably equal to most guests, somedays more, somedays less.

 

[TraderStitch]

There’s one thing that all the data analysis in the world can’t tell them about this AP holder, and I assume all others, how many trips are taken just because someone has an AP. So from that aspect, no, they have no clue about spending and AP. I mean, do they know if I'd make 2, or 5 trips a year? They can make an assumption but you know what assumptions are, wrong as much as they are right. There is no way they can read anyone's mind.
If they make any assumption, they should assume the AP means MORE trips a year. More trips means more spent, not less. If you count the entire year that is. Not in an individual trip.

I hate having to support Disney executives as I loathe them, but I do see where they are coming from. We all have magic bands and or MDE. If you don't use a magic band you have to have NFC turned on via your phone. That being said, they KNOW were we are in the parks and can track us. Don't assume touch points are the only ways to see where we are. MDE has access to your GPS location which is shared to Disney. They can make very calculated and educated guesses on guests. Walk into the Emporium and then leave without a AP discount on your account registering... missed opportunity to sell merch.
I'm not trying to be Orwellian/Big Brother is watching, but they can figure out what you are doing and when. If you don't use your AP discount for food or merch that is on the AP holders. It helps Disney know what is going on. By not using the discount you are only strengthening their argument that AP holders don't spend the amount of money they want them to.

 

[BrianL]

That is a click bait website that either "takes" other's content, including their photos or offers absolutely nothing. Don't look to them for anything.


I think there is a misconception that AP don't spend as much in parks. What people never seem to remember is that the MAJORITY of the WDW park guests are staying off property. They are eating off property. They are going to Universal, SeaWorld and often are giving Disney a small percentage of their budget.

Disney World Hotel guests are committed but their numbers are much smaller. If Disney were to focus only on them they would be running WDW in the RED. Disney needs offsite guests and AP guests.

As far as AP, yes perhaps a local AP might pop in and out but they are also the ones not blinking at drink prices and spending an afternoon dropping a bundle at the Nomad Lounge while not taking up space on attractions.

But the majority of the AP holders do not live in Orlando. They live all over Florida and elsewhere, they need hotels and they need food. For the last 15 years I have been traveling to WDW 5-6 weeks per year, needing hotels, food etc. But BECAUSE I have an AP I don't hesitate to book special events, eat expensive meals, buy alcoholic drinks at stupid prices and shop. When I didn't have an AP that money was restricted, our souvenirs were minimal, snacks never ever happened. AP holders don't have that ticket price hanging over them so they can spend more, and in my case for 30-40 days per year I can spend in the parks.

AP's are like Disney putting money in escrow to use how they wish while the AP holder is still spending in the parks and resorts. My free parking and 10% dining discount don't hurt them at all. My spending is probably equal to most guests, somedays more, somedays less.

I don't think the WDW AP holders spend less so much as it is the DLR locals that do. That said, the executives at Disney really need to watch their language - calling them "unfavorable" is a bad look. They can absolutely recognize that AP holders for DLR spend less, but they are also an important part of the business. Honestly, the biggest problem with Chapek isn't his decisions, but his mouth and the way he presents things. It makes him very unlikeable, and that's a bad trait in a CEO even when he is delivering good financial results.

 

[tommcp516]

"so to the extent you had lightened demand, you could loosen up some of those to bring more people back to the park..."

The phrase 'some of those' in that sentence refers to the 'limited number of annual passes that we have' in the first paragraph.

To me that statement implies that IF demand drops in the future (i.e. lower daily park attendance due to recession) Disney's only intended remedy is to loosen the number of blackout dates FOR THE AP'S THAT ARE CURRENRLY SOLD--and not to resume selling new AP's.

I've seen a lot of posts from non-AP holders (like me) who are hopeful that they'll start selling new AP's again in a recession or once the post-Covid 'revenge travel' dies down. But looking at what was said vs not said (loosen blackout dates vs resume new sales) by Disney as their current thinking for a contingency plan, I'm afraid that's a false hope...

 

[Miffy]

There’s one thing that all the data analysis in the world can’t tell them about this AP holder, and I assume all others, how many trips are taken just because someone has an AP. So from that aspect, no, they have no clue about spending and AP. I mean, do they know if I'd make 2, or 5 trips a year? They can make an assumption but you know what assumptions are, wrong as much as they are right. There is no way they can read anyone's mind.
If they make any assumption, they should assume the AP means MORE trips a year. More trips means more spent, not less. If you count the entire year that is. Not in an individual trip.

Very good point, @Mrs.AMC. This is very true of us. We took an unexpected, extra trip in March this year--a trip we never would've taken if we didn't have APs. We = my sister and me. We're both out-of-state AP holders who luckily didn't let our APs lapse during the pandemic even though there was a period of ~17 months when we didn't go to WDW at all.

We always stay on-site and spend all of our vacation in the bubble and spend all our money at WDW. They don't value us? That's just nuts. A business should value all its customers or guests or whatever they want to call these people.

 

[TraderStitch]

I honestly think the comments they made are a way to prep the Disney community that they might not offer renewals in the future or perhaps might get rid of the FL resident passes. Part of the whole Reedy Creek thing is that they need to offer a FL pass so that is probably why the lowest one is still available. If Desantis gets his way and Reedy Creek goes away, I'm sure that lower AP will eventually go away as well.

 

[Mrs.AMC]

I hate having to support Disney executives as I loathe them, but I do see where they are coming from. We all have magic bands and or MDE. If you don't use a magic band you have to have NFC turned on via your phone. That being said, they KNOW were we are in the parks and can track us. Don't assume touch points are the only ways to see where we are. MDE has access to your GPS location which is shared to Disney. They can make very calculated and educated guesses on guests. Walk into the Emporium and then leave without a AP discount on your account registering... missed opportunity to sell merch.
I'm not trying to be Orwellian/Big Brother is watching, but they can figure out what you are doing and when. If you don't use your AP discount for food or merch that is on the AP holders. It helps Disney know what is going on. By not using the discount you are only strengthening their argument that AP holders don't spend the amount of money they want them to.

So that tells them how many trips I wouldn't take without an AP, or conversely, how many trips I did take because I had an AP, ok. If you say so
I didn't realize the MB made them mind readers.

 

[TraderStitch]

So that tells them how many trips I wouldn't take without an AP, ok. If you say so

Touchy touchy, sheesh. I don't think they care about that, they care about what you spend... THAT IS ALL.

 

[Disneylover99]

When we have an AP, we definitely go more, but spend less overall.
I can see why Disney doesn’t want us.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I hate having to support Disney executives as I loathe them, but I do see where they are coming from. We all have magic bands and or MDE. If you don't use a magic band you have to have NFC turned on via your phone. That being said, they KNOW were we are in the parks and can track us. Don't assume touch points are the only ways to see where we are. MDE has access to your GPS location which is shared to Disney. They can make very calculated and educated guesses on guests. Walk into the Emporium and then leave without a AP discount on your account registering... missed opportunity to sell merch.
I'm not trying to be Orwellian/Big Brother is watching, but they can figure out what you are doing and when. If you don't use your AP discount for food or merch that is on the AP holders. It helps Disney know what is going on. By not using the discount you are only strengthening their argument that AP holders don't spend the amount of money they want them to.

Warning. May contain speculation, conjecture or opinion.

All of this assumes a big spending difference exists between APs and ticketed guests. Some ticketed guests are locals. Some locals spend freely. Some ticketed resort guests have kitchenettes and bring a pb&j into the parks. No one has talked about the 15 big resort hotels paying Disney for on-site privileges for their guests like bypassing hold limits, early entry, extended hours, reservations in advance advantages for parks and dining etc.

 

[Mrs.AMC]

I honestly think the comments they made are a way to prep the Disney community that they might not offer renewals in the future or perhaps might get rid of the FL resident passes. Part of the whole Reedy Creek thing is that they need to offer a FL pass so that is probably why the lowest one is still available. If Desantis gets his way and Reedy Creek goes away, I'm sure that lower AP will eventually go away as well.

I thought the Reedy Creek thing died on the vine, no? It got quiet at least

 

[TraderStitch]

I thought the Reedy Creek thing died on the vine, no? It got quiet at least

I think others might have stepped in and are working with Desantis now since Chapek flubbed it initially. Last I read was that they were going to "re-issue" it but I don't really know what that means.

 

[Mrs.AMC]

Touchy touchy, sheesh. I don't think they care about that, they care about what you spend... THAT IS ALL.

Once I walk on property, they can track spending, fine. I know that and frankly don't care.
Point is, how do they know if I'm there on property for them to track 2 times extra with the AP or 10 times extra?
They don't.
So they don't know anything about how much the AP I hold is gaining them in the way of money. Or not gaining them.
That's all I'm saying. Unless they can read my mind and know how many additional trips I am taking because I hold an AP they do not know which of those trips they are tracking are from me having an AP and which are not. Maybe I'd be there the same number, maybe not. They do not know. If they think every out of state AP holder is there the same amount, they are probably wrong. I suspect most are making more trips than they would without an AP. So in that aspect, I am betting those AP holders are bringing in additional money

And I'm not touchy, you are missing the point.

 

[Bo1203]

With no annual passes, we'll be going just once per year, 10 day tickets. If we had annual passes, we'd add a second trip booking a hotel room, eating at restaurants, buying lots of merch. Disney is losing money by not offering an annual pass in our case.

 

[TraderStitch]

Once I walk on property, they can track spending, fine. I know that and frankly don't care.
Point is, how do they know if I'm there on property for them to track 2 times extra with the AP or 10 times extra?
They don't.
So they don't know anything about how much the AP I hold is gaining them in the way of money. Or not gaining them.
That's all I'm saying. Unless they can read my mind and know how many additional trips I am taking because I hold an AP they do not know which of those trips they are tracking are from me having an AP and which are not. Maybe I'd be there the same number, maybe not. They do not know. If they think every out of state AP holder is there the same amount, they are probably wrong. I suspect most are making more trips than they would without an AP. So in that aspect, I am betting those AP holders are bringing in additional money

I'm sure Disney has a few actuaries on staff who have run the numbers numerous times. They have a number in mind an AP holder should be spending annually and if APs don't hit that number it goes in the loss column for Disney. It might not have been that way previously but since Chapek is so data driven, that is ALL he is looking at.

It sucks, I know. I would love an AP since buying DVC but the more we see and the longer we wait, that ship has sailed west to Valinor.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I honestly think the comments they made are a way to prep the Disney community that they might not offer renewals in the future or perhaps might get rid of the FL resident passes. Part of the whole Reedy Creek thing is that they need to offer a FL pass so that is probably why the lowest one is still available. If Desantis gets his way and Reedy Creek goes away, I'm sure that lower AP will eventually go away as well.

Warning. May contain speculation, conjecture or opinions.

The Reedy Creek dissolution issue is not connected to the issue of whether Florida resident APs remain for sale because of a requirement on TWDC for environmental mitigation for social disruption impacts due to approval of a land use development permit. Disney controls annual passes; not Reedy Creek.

The Reedy Creek dissolution has not gone away. The law passed and is on the books. The law states the dissolution happens in the summer is 2023. Only subsequent legislation can prevent the implementation unless there is a Florida court opinion that becomes final and beyond appeal that invalidates the statute. The statute does state the districts dissolved can be reformed, but that too would take subsequent action.