Annual Fees!!!

[crisi]

Sad day indeed! I had the privilege of meeting Warren when he came to tour my flight school. I was studying fervently in the corner, he noticed, and came over to talk. I bought A stock the first opportunity I could.

Have you been to the Warren and Charlie show? It is amazing. Its like a Bruce Springsteen concert - if The Boss were two guys in their 80s talking about investment and his fans were retired people from Omaha.

 

[Sur]

Lol!

 

[twinsouvenirs]

My numbers could be wrong but I've been charting the historical rise in the dues (it helped us make a choice about where to buy and to determie how stable these things are.

Although it is true that AKV had a sharp increase this year, their historical average is only %3.77 since opening. Although that isn't nothing, it certainly is (in my opinion) fairly reasonable.

AKV
2014 5.9748 5.38%
2013 5.67 4.23%
2012 5.44 8.58%
2011 5.01 1.21%
2010 4.95 2.06%
2009 4.85 2.97%
2008 4.71 1.95%
2007 4.62


DVC is certainly NOT an investment opportunity. And the $ increase is a function of point quantity, not so much the dues--so an easy way to cut your dues in half...sell off half your points.

SSR, where we purchased the bulk of our points, shows the smallest annual increase. But even that had a spike in 2012 at 4.88%. BWV were the second lowest. In 2006 they spiked 6.35%. This is not counting VGF obviously.

AKV is right in the middle of the pack as far as historical increases, even low(ish) THIS year that feels pretty steep, but that is the nature of these things. For AKV, when I was puzzling out reasonable estimates for increases, my DVC guide said to use 6% because of animal maintenance.

But as far as it goes, my point is that DVC is a long term buy in. Historically, Old Key West, which has been around basically 24/25 years has only shown 3.53%. BWV and VWL come in at 2.81% and 3.60% historically. I am not saying this is free, but it's not much higher than inflation, and labor costs rise with cost of living. Absent outsourcing our resorts to Asia, we have to assume that our labor costs will go up around the same rates as we hope our salaries do. That means so do our dues.

I know it's hard to say in front of one of the dues hikes, but just look at it in historical context and decide if you are willing to wait it out. I know I'd gladly pay $8 more a month in dues if it meant the cast members all keep grinning and the villas stay in good shape. We've all bought into assets that are depreciating, so to retain our value we need to put maintenance $ into them.

 

[3happydancers]

I'm not going to re-read the entire thread but all of your posts on the first page of the discussion focus on the financial aspect. No "combination of reasons and feelings" was stated or implied--every post specifically addresses the higher dues. Seems logical to assume that is the primary source of your dissatisfaction.

The dues increases at AKV, BLT and others have certainly been larger than many anticipated but still within an acceptable range for this type of product.

Yes, I looked back and on the first page I only mentioned the financial aspect of our displeasure. In page 2 and there after, I did go into more detail. So to be fair, one can assume certain thoughts based on my original post. However, one does not have to read much further to learn more about how we are feeling.

And while some may feel the increases overall are within an acceptable range, personally, we are unsure about that. The first few years of owning we felt the increases more within a reasonable range. However, we do not feel the same for the increases over the last 3 years. Coupled with the many changes coming from Disney, my family has begun to feel very happy.

I do appreciate the positive feedback received from many who have made good suggestions including renting our points for awhile which would give us time to re-evaluate what would be best for our family.

 

[3happydancers]

My numbers could be wrong but I've been charting the historical rise in the dues (it helped us make a choice about where to buy and to determie how stable these things are.

Although it is true that AKV had a sharp increase this year, their historical average is only %3.77 since opening. Although that isn't nothing, it certainly is (in my opinion) fairly reasonable.

AKV
2014 5.9748 5.38%
2013 5.67 4.23%
2012 5.44 8.58%
2011 5.01 1.21%
2010 4.95 2.06%
2009 4.85 2.97%
2008 4.71 1.95%
2007 4.62


DVC is certainly NOT an investment opportunity. And the $ increase is a function of point quantity, not so much the dues--so an easy way to cut your dues in half...sell off half your points.

SSR, where we purchased the bulk of our points, shows the smallest annual increase. But even that had a spike in 2012 at 4.88%. BWV were the second lowest. In 2006 they spiked 6.35%. This is not counting VGF obviously.

AKV is right in the middle of the pack as far as historical increases, even low(ish) THIS year that feels pretty steep, but that is the nature of these things. For AKV, when I was puzzling out reasonable estimates for increases, my DVC guide said to use 6% because of animal maintenance.

But as far as it goes, my point is that DVC is a long term buy in. Historically, Old Key West, which has been around basically 24/25 years has only shown 3.53%. BWV and VWL come in at 2.81% and 3.60% historically. I am not saying this is free, but it's not much higher than inflation, and labor costs rise with cost of living. Absent outsourcing our resorts to Asia, we have to assume that our labor costs will go up around the same rates as we hope our salaries do. That means so do our dues.

I know it's hard to say in front of one of the dues hikes, but just look at it in historical context and decide if you are willing to wait it out. I know I'd gladly pay $8 more a month in dues if it meant the cast members all keep grinning and the villas stay in good shape. We've all bought into assets that are depreciating, so to retain our value we need to put maintenance $ into them.

Thanks for the numbers. Historically, resorts like Old Key West, BWV and VWL are within reason, but what if the spikes continued with the one you experienced in 2006, would you be ok with that? Of course we want to maintain the level of service received, but this is where we are at. I am concerned that for my home resort, we are going to see the higher increases more regularly which does not work for us. I guess we shall see what the next few years brings. If the increases remain where they are and we are still unhappy with ongoing changes with the world, then for our family, the right thing to do would be to move on.

 

[Dean]

The dues increases at AKV, BLT and others have certainly been larger than many anticipated but still within an acceptable range for this type of product.

I've predicted a number of times that BLT would catch up to the group or nearly so but I think many thought it would remain an outlier forever due to the higher cost of points raising the denominator divisible into the total costs there. I do think it should remain on the lower side comparatively, likely close to SSR long term.

 

[Dean]

Thanks for the numbers. Historically, resorts like Old Key West, BWV and VWL are within reason, but what if the spikes continued with the one you experienced in 2006, would you be ok with that? Of course we want to maintain the level of service received, but this is where we are at. I am concerned that for my home resort, we are going to see the higher increases more regularly which does not work for us. I guess we shall see what the next few years brings. If the increases remain where they are and we are still unhappy with ongoing changes with the world, then for our family, the right thing to do would be to move on.

IMO 3-4% average is about the best we can hope for and the average is within that range. As discussed here from time to time, it's not uncommon for new resorts to have lower dues early for 2 reasons, one is that there isn't as much risk and expense and the other that they do so artificially while in active sales to make the resort look more attractive for potential buyers.

 

[johde]

Thanks for the numbers. Historically, resorts like Old Key West, BWV and VWL are within reason, but what if the spikes continued with the one you experienced in 2006, would you be ok with that? Of course we want to maintain the level of service received, but this is where we are at. I am concerned that for my home resort, we are going to see the higher increases more regularly which does not work for us. I guess we shall see what the next few years brings. If the increases remain where they are and we are still unhappy with ongoing changes with the world, then for our family, the right thing to do would be to move on.

I've felt your concerns. I only own 60 points so my so my dollar values are smaller. I bought OKW back in 2001. The historical Dues up to that point were:

Dues % change
1991 2.51
1992 2.56 1.99%
1993 2.63 2.73%
1994 2.70 2.66%
1995 2.84 5.19%
1996 2.99 5.28%
1997 3.14 5.02%
1998 3.17 0.96%
1999 3.16 -0.32%
2000 3.16 0.00%
2001 3.13 -0.95%

During the first 10 years of it's life it had averaged about 2.5% a year. Then in the first 5 years I owned it we saw annual dues of:

2002 3.22 2.88%
2003 3.39 5.28%
2004 3.68 8.55%
2005 3.86 4.89%
2006 4.24 9.84%

And I started having the same thoughts you mentioned. 2002, not too bad, 2003 not great but could have been worse (they initially announced $3.49 a point), 2004 even worse, 2005, Ok getting a little bit better but still not what it had been before I purchased. 2006 way up. Part of the big increases in 2005/2006 was the extra lifeguards needed for the pool slide. Was this going to be the new normal. Fortunately, it wasn't. Since then we've seen.

2007 4.40 3.77%
2008 4.56 3.64%
2009 4.73 3.73%
2010 4.87 2.96%
2011 4.98 2.26%
2012 5.20 4.42%
2013 5.34 2.69%
2014 5.50 3.00%

On a % bases much more reasonable. Averaging everything together, dues have gone up about 4.5% a year in the time I've owned it, and about 3.5% since it opened. I'm not giving any recommendations, just information that resort you've considered "reasonable" in terms of dues increases have had the times when dues increased quickly.

 

[3happydancers]

I've felt your concerns. I only own 60 points so my so my dollar values are smaller. I bought OKW back in 2001. The historical Dues up to that point were:

Dues % change
1991 2.51
1992 2.56 1.99%
1993 2.63 2.73%
1994 2.70 2.66%
1995 2.84 5.19%
1996 2.99 5.28%
1997 3.14 5.02%
1998 3.17 0.96%
1999 3.16 -0.32%
2000 3.16 0.00%
2001 3.13 -0.95%

During the first 10 years of it's life it had averaged about 2.5% a year. Then in the first 5 years I owned it we saw annual dues of:

2002 3.22 2.88%
2003 3.39 5.28%
2004 3.68 8.55%
2005 3.86 4.89%
2006 4.24 9.84%

And I started having the same thoughts you mentioned. 2002, not too bad, 2003 not great but could have been worse (they initially announced $3.49 a point), 2004 even worse, 2005, Ok getting a little bit better but still not what it had been before I purchased. 2006 way up. Part of the big increases in 2005/2006 was the extra lifeguards needed for the pool slide. Was this going to be the new normal. Fortunately, it wasn't. Since then we've seen.

2007 4.40 3.77%
2008 4.56 3.64%
2009 4.73 3.73%
2010 4.87 2.96%
2011 4.98 2.26%
2012 5.20 4.42%
2013 5.34 2.69%
2014 5.50 3.00%

On a % bases much more reasonable. Averaging everything together, dues have gone up about 4.5% a year in the time I've owned it, and about 3.5% since it opened. I'm not giving any recommendations, just information that resort you've considered "reasonable" in terms of dues increases have had the times when dues increased quickly.

Thanks for taking the time to post the changes over a long period of time. I appreciate any and all information shared! We purchased in 2008 so we only have the first 5 years to go on. It was also when AKL was still in the construction stages so there was no concrete data for us to evaluate. We will probably hold onto our timeshare for awhile longer in hopes we experience some low years ahead. I know we have to keep in mind that we will always pay a bit more due to the care of the animals.