Analyst cuts earnings projections for Disney, estimates attendance decline

[mitros]

Then what are you trying to say? That because you observe that WDW is being mobbed, the company is financially well off?

I NEVER said the company was well off. I simple said, for the UMPTEENTH time, that the parks are crowded. I don't know how to say it any simpler then that..................

 

[mitros]

I guess I don't get what you're trying to say either. Disney has the data, actual numbers, to show attendance is down. Are you disputing that?

How does one scream on a keyboard? I don't know, but I am doing that right now. The parks are STILL crowded, you STILL have to wait on long lines, the restaurants are still busy. Don't know what else to say. I know Disneys business overall is suffering, but there are still a lot of people going to the parks. It's no wonder Another Voice stays away from these boards for long periods of time. It's just too damn frustrating.

 

[sandym718]

How does one scream on a keyboard? I don't know, but I am doing that right now. The parks are STILL crowded, you STILL have to wait on long lines, the restaurants are still busy. Don't know what else to say. I know Disneys business overall is suffering, but there are still a lot of people going to the parks. It's no wonder Another Voice stays away from these boards for long periods of time. It's just too damn frustrating.

OK, I guess I get, you're just saying the parks are still busy. OK got it. But they ARE less busy - according to the numbers - I think a lot of us would understand more if you would just acknowledge that, but say that Disney is STILL pretty darn busy.

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

mitros, the parks still are crowded or they still SEEM crowded? Big distinction.

Disney is capable of making a crowd of 60% seem like 100% by closing attractions (refurbishments), not offering fastpasses, reducing operating hours on attractions or parks or not operating rides up to capacity.

I have no doubt that WDW parks still seem busy to the average perspective but they are not as busy as the past and those in the parks are definately not spending what they used to.

It will get worse and by years end I think the parks will not even 'feel' busy.

 

[nmdisfans]

The economy in general, as mirrored by declining revenues at WDW, is made worse by the prognostications of moron analysts at companies that we are now bailing out with our hard earned tax payer money. Companies like Morgan Stanley make money pushing and dumping stocks. These greedy, self serving corporations are at the root cause of the economy's collapse. And while their execs are enjoying perks fit for royalty, they are still allowed to make dire predictions that when taken at face value, cause self fulfilling prophesies. These guys are the same morons who predicted Apple Computer would be out of business in 1997. Disney is a large company with a lot of fat, some of which can probably be trimmed.
The parks have for years been the cash cows, and of course when average Americans can't pay the rent or their other bills, of course they will cut back on leisure. They have to. Perhaps Disney should look to its myriad other money losing ventures (magazines, radio, tv stations, horrible movie production of recent years) and cut there instead of here at WDW. In bad times, folks need something constant, something quality and something they can enjoy. The people who are lambasted on these forums for having purchased annual passes and now only spend $15 when they visit the parks should not be ridiculed. They only have $15 to spend and they choose to spend it at Disney. Not somewhere else. That is the definition of loyalty, and the reason that a company like the Walt Disney Company has lasted this long.

Analysts rarely care about the impact they make on real people, like the cast members that lose their jobs when corporate folks panic. Analysts work for stock brokerages who only make money when people buy or SELL stock. Guess what, they make just as much when people panic dump stock based on their predictions. You never hear people like Warren Buffet making these predictions. Its usually guys you never ever heard of. And why do they have any credibility? There are posters here who have more knowledge of the Walt Disney Company than the majority of these so called analysts.

More disturbing than attendance or revenue figures is the downward trend in maintenance, quality guest experiences and the like caused by panicky cast members more occupied with their job's lasting power than in making guests smile. In its darkest hours, Walt and his brother Roy would "keep moving forward", often times Walt himself would empty his own pockets and pay his "employees" with whatever he could scrape together to keep the company going. Its unfortunate that some of that spirit is gone, not just at Disney but throughout the country in general. Rather than panic layoffs and contractions, we should all try to support each other and the companies that matter. I for one am sick and tired of constant negative reports and gloom and doom. When one is forced to exist on a diet of negativity, of course things will continue to spiral out of control. Sometimes companies lose money, that does not mean its over. It just means that corporate did not prepare for a rainy day and should have been saving and building during the good times. Keep in mind that while a company like Disney is losing money, its top executives are still making more money than any member of this forum. Oh, and don't forget their bonuses for a job well done. That's what went wrong with America folks. Fix that problem and we will have this country back on track.

 

[Sherwin]

I NEVER said the company was well off. I simple said, for the UMPTEENTH time, that the parks are crowded. I don't know how to say it any simpler then that..................

Okay... I'm sure we all got that part.

The part we're not getting from you is why you think that matters.

 

[racefanof88]

The economy in general, as mirrored by declining revenues at WDW, is made worse by the prognostications of moron analysts at companies that we are now bailing out with our hard earned tax payer money. Companies like Morgan Stanley make money pushing and dumping stocks. These greedy, self serving corporations are at the root cause of the economy's collapse. And while their execs are enjoying perks fit for royalty, they are still allowed to make dire predictions that when taken at face value, cause self fulfilling prophesies. These guys are the same morons who predicted Apple Computer would be out of business in 1997. Disney is a large company with a lot of fat, some of which can probably be trimmed.
The parks have for years been the cash cows, and of course when average Americans can't pay the rent or their other bills, of course they will cut back on leisure. They have to. Perhaps Disney should look to its myriad other money losing ventures (magazines, radio, tv stations, horrible movie production of recent years) and cut there instead of here at WDW. In bad times, folks need something constant, something quality and something they can enjoy. The people who are lambasted on these forums for having purchased annual passes and now only spend $15 when they visit the parks should not be ridiculed. They only have $15 to spend and they choose to spend it at Disney. Not somewhere else. That is the definition of loyalty, and the reason that a company like the Walt Disney Company has lasted this long.

Analysts rarely care about the impact they make on real people, like the cast members that lose their jobs when corporate folks panic. Analysts work for stock brokerages who only make money when people buy or SELL stock. Guess what, they make just as much when people panic dump stock based on their predictions. You never hear people like Warren Buffet making these predictions. Its usually guys you never ever heard of. And why do they have any credibility? There are posters here who have more knowledge of the Walt Disney Company than the majority of these so called analysts.

More disturbing than attendance or revenue figures is the downward trend in maintenance, quality guest experiences and the like caused by panicky cast members more occupied with their job's lasting power than in making guests smile. In its darkest hours, Walt and his brother Roy would "keep moving forward", often times Walt himself would empty his own pockets and pay his "employees" with whatever he could scrape together to keep the company going. Its unfortunate that some of that spirit is gone, not just at Disney but throughout the country in general. Rather than panic layoffs and contractions, we should all try to support each other and the companies that matter. I for one am sick and tired of constant negative reports and gloom and doom. When one is forced to exist on a diet of negativity, of course things will continue to spiral out of control. Sometimes companies lose money, that does not mean its over. It just means that corporate did not prepare for a rainy day and should have been saving and building during the good times. Keep in mind that while a company like Disney is losing money, its top executives are still making more money than any member of this forum. Oh, and don't forget their bonuses for a job well done. That's what went wrong with America folks. Fix that problem and we will have this country back on track.

Said very nicely.

We all need to remember that behind every statistic is a real person. I love Disney and I think we all seem to think of them as immune to bad times. I think we all really want them to be immune. Disney is where I go to forget all my troubles and worries and to think they are in the same sinking boat means I have no escape from reality . I will, as long as I possibly can, continue to spend my vacation dollars at Disney.

The greed of corporate executives is shameful. How these people, or their families, can get up and look at themselves in the mirror in the mornings, knowing what they have done to this country, is totally beyond me. They should pay, and pay dearly, for what they have helped cause. There will be a day of reckoning for all of these people.Ok, sorry for the rant. Getting my flame retardant suit out now...........

 

[CanadianGuy]

I'm sort of tired of trying to prove a point, that is, the parks are STILL mobbed! Whether thay have "handfulls" of merchandise is neither here nor there regarding the amount of bodies on property. We made a day visit on January 25th, and the MK was mobbed. Epcot had 1 hour waits for attractions. Went again on the 29th, MK, mobbed, Disney Studios and AK, both had huge lines for attractions. We are going again this Sunday. My whole point.....once AGAIN, is that there are still many, many bodies on property. They may not have handfuls of merchandise, but they are taking up seats in restaurants, and going on the rides and attractions. I don't care about what the economy is doing to Disney spending-wise, but people are still going there in droves, which has been my point all along. I don't feel it is necessary for me to defend my statements when I have being seeing for myself that WDW is STILL crowded!

Hah! Gimme a break! I am telling you what I am seeing at the parks. Busy, busy busy! Another one missing my whole point. Please read my posts a little more carefully before you respond...............

Might I suggest you go to the parks other than on a Saturday or Sunday? Because if you do, I think you'll find they are anything BUT mobbed...

On some days coming up -- MARCH BREAK - when the parks are usually and TRULY mobbed 7 days a week ... this year, they are going to be very much NOT mobbed.

The extension of the 4/3 offer is NOT proof that the parks will be further mobbed.. but rather a nasty harbinger of just how hollow the reservations for the coming are starting to look...

 

[YoHo]

I NEVER said the company was well off. I simple said, for the UMPTEENTH time, that the parks are crowded. I don't know how to say it any simpler then that..................

And my response is that they can and very very often do manipulate the way the park runs to make it feel crowded even with fewer people.

this is not in dispute. you can watch the hours get cut year over year. You can see how line changes for fast pass cut the space for the queue.

The total attendance figures were depressed for 8ish years. The place is no more crowded last year than it was in 1999 and its down this year.

So you can keep saying that it still feels crowded, and maybe it does, but what I'm saying is it doesn't mean anything. not anything at all, because they are manipulating things.

Disney has decided how many attractions a person should be able to go on in one day and they manipulate the entire place so that that is the average you'll hit whether there are 33,000 or 10,000 people in the park.

 

[CanadianGuy]

And my response is that they can and very very often do manipulate the way the park runs to make it feel crowded even with fewer people.

this is not in dispute. you can watch the hours get cut year over year. You can see how line changes for fast pass cut the space for the queue.

The total attendance figures were depressed for 8ish years. The place is no more crowded last year than it was in 1999 and its down this year.

So you can keep saying that it still feels crowded, and maybe it does, but what I'm saying is it doesn't mean anything. not anything at all, because they are manipulating things.

Disney has decided how many attractions a person should be able to go on in one day and they manipulate the entire place so that that is the average you'll hit whether there are 33,000 or 10,000 people in the park.

And what he said.. big time.

( YoHo - mark it on your calendar - we agreed on something! )

 

[rantnnravin]

I'm sort of tired of trying to prove a point, that is, the parks are STILL mobbed! Whether thay have "handfulls" of merchandise is neither here nor there regarding the amount of bodies on property. We made a day visit on January 25th, and the MK was mobbed. Epcot had 1 hour waits for attractions. Went again on the 29th, MK, mobbed, Disney Studios and AK, both had huge lines for attractions. We are going again this Sunday. My whole point.....once AGAIN, is that there are still many, many bodies on property. They may not have handfuls of merchandise, but they are taking up seats in restaurants, and going on the rides and attractions. I don't care about what the economy is doing to Disney spending-wise, but people are still going there in droves, which has been my point all along. I don't feel it is necessary for me to defend my statements when I have being seeing for myself that WDW is STILL crowded!

let's switch to clear lenses:
What needs to be taken into consideration is that many CM hours have been cut, so lines WILL be longer. Here's why:

a) Using the test track reference: there are 3 briefing rooms. There is also a FP entrance and a single-rider entrance - each requiring a CM to direct guests. Let's cut out the FP CM and the single-rider CM and have one CM and one (maybe 2) briefing rooms open. You have just cut capacity and effectively increased the wait time for the attraction - making the park seem busy. Same thing goes for Soarin. If they close one theater, it cuts capacity in half (thousands of guests per hour) while also eliminating the need for the 4-5 CMs to run that side.
b) Crowd patterns and park choices also affect how busy a park is. So, combine observation "a" with having no fantasmic at the studios, and no spectro at MK and you have more guests going to Epcot. This may also cause affect "c":
c) Disney knows "b" will occur so they cut staffing at the other parks - thereby making them appear busier as well.
d) The same will occur at the restaurants - fewer servers = longer turnover gap = less revenue. Just because there are bodies at the tables, doesn't mean there are as many being served as there could be.

To put it into real-world context: Let's say the MTA (public transportation) wants to cut fuel consumption. So, instead of running four M34 buses each hour, they only run two. What is the result? The buses are more full (making it appear that ridership is up) and the masses at the bus stops are larger (making it appear that ridership is up).


pair that with your statement I bolded above and this adds up to a bleak situation.

 

[Steffiesunshine]

I NEVER said the company was well off. I simple said, for the UMPTEENTH time, that the parks are crowded. I don't know how to say it any simpler then that..................

I was at the parks from Jan 27 to Feb 2, and DH and I were surprised at the LOW crowds. (I took many photos of stand-by times)

1/27: We got to MK at around 12:30pm. Main St was empty...Buzz, SM, HM, BTMRR and Splash were all posted as 5-10 minutes, but basically were really walk on. (It takes about 5 minutes to walk that huge line for BTMRR and SM) We were done with all those, POTC (walk on) and TTA, and left the park by about 2:45pm to go catch a nap at our hotel and change for dinner. Came back to MK that night at 6:15 for dinner. Didn't do any attractions, but park was appeared much less crowded than I have seen it.

1/28: AK. Longest wait was EE which was 25 minutes in the prime time afternoon hours. Dinosaur was walk on, EE was 10 minutes later in the night (EMH) We rode it 3 times in a row. We did see Kali River Rapids at 30 minutes that afternoon, but it was in the 80's that day.

1/29: MK again. We got there around 10am, Splash & BTMRR were again only 10 minutes. Buzz walk on, Laugh Floor queue empty. I don't know where you saw the crowds that day. SM was again posted at 10 minutes, and we did TTA and were out of there by 2pm when it started raining.

1/30: EPCOT: Soarin was posted early in the day at 40 minutes, but that was as high as I saw it. Test Track was 25 minutes, but my DH and I did single rider 10 minute wait and were seated together anyway. Spaceship Earth was walk on that day, and again times were similar when we returned to EPCOT on Monday 2/2 (rain)

1/31: DHS: This was the only day I feel we saw any crowds. Toy Story fast passes were gone at 2pm, and stand by was 45 minutes. We waited about 37 minutes. Later that night, about 7:30, stand by was only 25 minutes. TOT was 20 minutes, but we fast passed it while we had lunch. I saw some cheerleaders that day, but didn't feel the crowd was reflected in the wait times. We didn't do RNR coaster, and I can't vouch for the wait time.

2/1: MK, SuperBowl Sunday: We were there early, and everything again was walk on. We never walked away because wait times were too long. We did BTMRR 3X in a row. Fast pass return times were only about 20 minutes later. We were gone that day by 1:15pm for GF lunch and then back to hotel for SB, so I don't know what happened later that day.

I was ready for big crowds, just in case. Especially since so many people thought SB would have a big effect on crowds, but they didn't. I would go again at this time of year in a minute.

I don't know where some people were on certain days/times that they found HUGE crowds, but they weren't anywhere near me.
FYI: I don't follow any touring plans, don't pay attention to daily attendance calendars, and go to every EMH.

Guess we just got lucky, huh?

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

Makes no difference what the situation is with the economy. The parks are still crowded.
Cripes, another one misses my point. I give up..............

Not to beat a dead horse.....

I suppose my real question (perhaps the same question MANY here would like an answer is).....

You actually deny the fact that Disney has announced that park attendance in the last quarter was down 8%.....AFTER they announced it?

Perhaps the parks are crowded on occassional days (probably because of castmember cutbacks as described here)....but overall, how on earth can you deny the truth....from the Mouse's mouth?

Park attendance IS down.

Why can't you accept the truth?

 

[RescueRanger]

Not to beat a dead horse.....

I suppose my real question (perhaps the same question MANY here would like an answer is).....

You actually deny the fact that Disney has announced that park attendance in the last quarter was down 8%.....AFTER they announced it?

Perhaps the parks are crowded on occassional days (probably because of castmember cutbacks as described here)....but overall, how on earth can you deny the truth....from the Mouse's mouth?

Park attendance IS down.

Why can't you accept the truth?

I've got it! I've finally figured it out!
Ya'll remember that movie Frequency where Jim Caviezel is speaking to his dad through a radio, but his dad is many years in the past at the time. Well, Mitros is typing these posts from another time and dimension. Has to be because he certain isn't living in the here and now.

 

[sandym718]

LOL, or maybe it's like LOST!!

Thanks, Mouseaholic, that's what I was getting at. I truly don't know if Mitros is denying the validity of the actual numbers, or saying that Yes, attendance IS down, but he feels the parks are STILL crowded (or, as others have pointed out - SEEM crowded)

 

[Peter Pirate 2]

mitros is a good poster and a good DIS'er. On this particular issue I believe we are more arguing apples and oranges than comparatives.

I can agree that the Parks can seem busy, even crowed due to manipulation and the occasional and random very heavy days.

My argument that the park is 'empty' falls on deaf ears if one is judging by how crowded the qeues are or how long the wait times are and not factoring in ride capacites, rehabs, park capacities, etc.

I believe mitros' point was simply that WDW will do whatever they need to to make the parks cowded and with this I agree, especially if we could use the term "seems" cowded.

 

[Malaguti Ball Clan]

Some see the park as half empty, while others see it as half full