An argument for VDL as direct points at WDW

[Paul Stupin]

The dues are roughly equal. 8.50, 9.06, 9.14. This is a resale argument.

I believe VDH will hold value better than RIV or Aulani. Or against future locked down resorts as WDW construction marches on. The point of the resale restrictions is to impact resale value, and I just don't see why they matter much in CA.

Sure, if you plan to hold RIV until you die, it doesn't really matter if RIV resale is worthless. The idea is if you care about resale, you might as well buy a contract holding value if the dues are equal. Taking out the taxes and parking is what made the dues equal, which is why this math works.

Also, as you admit, you’ve never been to either Disneyland or Aulani, yet your opinions about both are seemingly locked in concrete. Until you actually experience these environments, your points of view cannot be 100% we’ll informed, can they?

 

[RoseGold]

Also, as you admit, you’ve never been to either Disneyland or Aulani, yet your opinions about both are seemingly locked in concrete. Until you actually experience these environments, your points of view cannot be 100% we’ll informed, can they?

I own a whole lot of SSR and I've never been there either. It's not like you have to stay there if you buy it. This is math.

VGC has been an extreme outlier in DVC for many years. No one has bought it for WDW for a long time, and it would be a terrible idea. This might be the only DL entry point with math like this, if VGC's history means anything. Both of these resorts are tiny by DVC standards, and WDW is going to keep expanding. DL will not.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I own a whole lot of SSR and I've never been there either. It's not like you have to stay there if you buy it. This is math.

VGC has been an extreme outlier in DVC for many years. No one has bought it for WDW for a long time, and it would be a terrible idea. This might be the only DL entry point with math like this, if VGC's history means anything. Both of these resorts are tiny by DVC standards, and WDW is going to keep expanding. DL will not.

I do hear you, but you’re not taking into account two large variables. I’m not sure the timeshare market for SoCal locals is particularly strong, so I do think there’s a chance this offering will not sell like hot cakes. It could be on sale for quite a while. And if it’s not an out of the box success, perceptions about it will change.

Second, though location is certainly important, you have to take into account the quality of the product Itself. This is a small building. Tiny pool, with no other amenities to speak of, and on three sides the view planes are subpar, aka parking lots and a blah residential area. It has a minimum number of one bedroom and larger units for larger families. It pales monumentally in comparison to VGC.

I know, Disney probably won’t be building another SoCal DVC project for a long time, if ever. But, unlike VGC, VDH is the smallest, least impressive, most unimaginative DVD property ever built, in spite of its price being the highest. Does anyone really want to bet their hard earned money on that?

 

[Littlelulu01]

This is smart and interesting, but I disagree. For WDW SAP, wouldn’t the best choice, as mentioned above, still be VGF? It’s cheaper, none of the annoying, didn’t-tell-us-till-the-last-minute transient and parking fees, and it’s going to sell out in the next 12-18 months, meaning the VGF resale price will pop back up and a buyer today could probably sell at a higher price in a couple years or less. Even if Poly2 turns out great and has its own association, VGF, with its size, theming and scale, will always be the premiere Magic Kingdom area resort.

Though you‘ve been quite unforgiving about the Aulani transient tax and dues, you seem remarkably ok with Anaheim’s, which are even higher for the former and almost as much as the latter. And, let’s be honest, VDH isn’t a beautiful sprawling island resort, it’s basically a boring, unthemed block of concrete shoved into a narrow space between two hotel towers. It even makes Riviera look like an imagineer’s fantasy! Why are the dues so friggin pricey?? Also, the relationship between Anaheim and Disney has always been complicated, so it’s certainly not impossible that Anaheim could muscle through any number of transient tax increases down the line in retaliation for some perceived slight on Disney’s part.

Also, I’m not sure VDH is guaranteed to be either successful or popular. It greatly suffers in comparison to VGC, and most people in SoCal know nothing about DVC and usually travel from home to spend a day at the parks. I’m not sure they’re going to be lining up in droves to plunk down thousands and thousands of dollars for a time share to stay in basically another hotel wing, when they can book that same hotel or similar ones across the street for two or three night stays, for years and years and years, for less money.

Also, even if you use the resort for SAP, it’s still kinda nice to own where you want to stay. And I think there might be more hesitation than some anticipate to buy into VGC’s unimpressive, small, sad counterpart.

To each their own. I remember when Riveria was built there wasn’t many positive comments. It’s my family’s favorite resort beside Aulani.

I’ve made out well with my Riveria contract by buying early on and getting a fixed week. My Aulani points are subsidized and not restricted. The initial cost has long paid off on both purchases. I’m ok with the point chart and pretty impressed with how it looks. I’ve always loved the Disneyland Hotel. Sometimes we stay at grand Californian but I’m not crazy about the crazy busy lobby. Disneyland Hotel has my heart. Given the taxes and mf’s, I’m likely adding less than I had planned. Will have to see what the incentives are but I’m definitely in line for purchase!

I plan to combine my resorts points occasionally for larger family trips to Aulani.

 

[Paul Stupin]

To each their own. I remember when Riveria was built there wasn’t many positive comments. It’s my family’s favorite resort beside Aulani.

I’ve made out well with my Riveria contract by buying early on and getting a fixed week. My Aulani points are subsidized and not restricted. The initial cost has long paid off on both purchases. I’m ok with the point chart and pretty impressed with how it looks. I’ve always loved the Disneyland Hotel. Sometimes we stay at grand Californian but I’m not crazy about the crazy busy lobby. Disneyland Hotel has my heart. Given the taxes and mf’s, I’m likely adding less than I had planned. Will have to see what the incentives are but I’m definitely in line for purchase!

I plan to combine my resorts points occasionally for larger family trips to Aulani.

Sounds like a good plan for you. We love Riviera and Aulani as well!

 

[Aussie RJ]

I’m still on the fence.. but enjoying this one.

 

[RoseGold]

I'm not the buyer for this. I could care less about the Blue Card. You're more likely to find me on the flipside, in RIV resale in this discussion.

The buyer for this would want Blue Card, but not 11 month priority. That might be someone who wants MM or wants future properties or Sorcerer. You know, someone like a GA local-ish person who wants MM/Sorcerer or a Miami person who doesn't plan so far out but loves MM and future resorts. Or someone who wants future properties but thinks buy-in will just get crazier. Or, someone who doesn't plan to hold forever, and thinks saturation will impact the value of WDW resale.

For that person, buying DL makes more sense to me than buying RIV right now.

 

[Amyunder]

I’m going to throw in a quick “Aulani is amazing and Disney rakes in a ton of cash on unsold inventory” post here.

Carry on….

I feel like this is an east coast west coast thing. As a former resident of HI, CA and WA who moved east 15 years ago and has been a DVC owner (AKL direct) since 2015 I'm completely confused at the talk. Hawaii will always rent... the one time I rented my points through one of the rental agencies it was to a Japanese couple at aulani. Different folks want Hawaii and DL and these people are used to paying $$$ for room tax, parking and flights. When I was on the west coast there was no way I would fly to Florida for 2 weeks but I totally took the train up/flew down for a weekend/4 night stay. I won't even start with when I was a kid in Hawaii going on the DL and Vegas vacation combos. This model doesn't work for the WDW group but they are used to things like SAPs where there are tons of options. Also if TAT goes up it impacts everyone including the Marriott's and Candy Canes. I think the cabin announcement was a branch out to the east coast group who wanted new direct points... like hey wait a couple months and we will give you a chance at new shiny points.... this one isn't for you. You can reach all the DVCs by car within a days drive (HHI to Vero is what 6 hours?) except Aulani and VGC. Those locations are a solid $500 plane ticket people aren't buying there to maybe use them at the hotel down the street.

 

[pianomanzano]

I'm not the buyer for this. I could care less about the Blue Card. You're more likely to find me on the flipside, in RIV resale in this discussion.

The buyer for this would want Blue Card, but not 11 month priority. That might be someone who wants MM or wants future properties or Sorcerer. You know, someone like a GA local-ish person who plans to hold for years and thinks they could use MM/Sorcerer and doesn't plan so far out. Or someone who wants future properties but thinks buy-in will just get crazier. Or, someone who doesn't plan to hold forever, and thinks saturation will impact the value of WDW resale.

For that person, buying DL makes more sense to me than buying RIV right now.

For that person, I'd still recommend VGF over DL. I guess I don't understand why it has to be a "DL or RIV only" solution right now. The arguments against RIV it seems is the potential decreased resale value due to restrictions and I'm assuming you're not bringing VGF in as an option because of the contract length. But to me those two reasons are at odds with each other. The contract length shouldn't matter as much if they're planning on selling down the road anyway. It just seems silly to me that one who wants WDW stays should pick a DL home resort that costs more and has higher dues. And if I want more years, then I choose RIV over VGF. If/when they plans to sell, resale restrictions will be the norm and they'll all be depressed values anyway.

 

[RoseGold]

Depends on what you think VGF resale will do. DVC already destroyed it once, and they can do it again, they've got more cash buildings they can flip with no sound insulation. And they've got plenty more swamp to build out. They can easily crush $1/point difference in dues, if they crush resale value.

I love VGF, I own VGF, but VGF doesn't appeal to a lot of people.

VGF's low dues are an interesting outlier that I can't fully explain. The charts and transportation seems like it should be similar to RIV, yet the dues stay lower than RIV. I suppose if you think low dues will hold true long term, then sure. I'm not sure that is a great assumption, especially if you think the monorail is an expensive albatross. Offloading its costs to DVC with Poly and VGF might make sense over time if it keeps costing more.

Poly's dues at 7.94 are also less, and if you think Poly2 will be the same association it will be at that rate also.

 

[pianomanzano]

Depends on what you think VGF resale will do. DVC already destroyed it once, and they can do it again, they've got more cash buildings they can flip with no sound insulation.

I love VGF, I own VGF, but VGF doesn't appeal to a lot of people.

VGF's low dues are an interesting outlier that I can't fully explain. The charts and transportation seems like it should be similar to RIV, yet the dues stay lower than RIV. I suppose if you think low dues will hold true long term, then sure. I'm not sure that is a great assumption.

Based on how you described for whom VDL would be suited (booking at 7 months, non-FL local access to sorcerer pass and MM), the appeal of VGF shouldn't matter right? And I wouldn't exactly characterize DVC as destroying resale value just yet, maybe a year or so from now when it's sold out and we have a better picture of things.

VGF's average increase for dues have been 3.5%. Even if dues were to go up at a higher rate, I could see VDH's dues always outpacing it due by nature of it being in CA (even if their dues hold steady for a year or two as has been the case with newer resorts).

 

[RoseGold]

VGF's average increase for dues have been 3.5%. Even if dues were to go up at a higher rate, I could see VDH's dues always outpacing it due by nature of it being in CA (even if their dues hold steady for a year or two as has been the case with newer resorts).

Removing some of the tax load is big. FL's tax load (and parking) is all in the dues, things like property taxes. That goes up, dues go up. But for VDH, separating it eliminates one of the more obvious ways dues could increase. By using DL points in FL, you wouldn't care about CA's insane transient tax.

In a sense, it's the best worlds with VDH points. You only pay part of the dues, in FL you pay all the tax. You use the points as if they were FL direct points, but you keep the resale benefit of the limited California market.

The more interesting dues story to me is the aging resorts like SSR, which has a much lower chart and thus more exposure per point. That's an outlier.

 

[iluvthsgam]

VDH will be mostly west coast buyers who currently have very few options. Frankly I thought the point price would be higher. You can not get VGC at 7 months, it is impossible, and if you can find a day it will be at some random period. WDW points will do you no good in California

I do not disagree that it is very difficult for VGC at 7 months. However, it is not impossible. I just got 3 nights in a 1 bedroom this past Feb 16-19 (Presidents Day holiday weekend). One night was open and I had to waitlist the other two (using two separate 1 night waitlists) but they both came through. Just one data point. But I did not even look and book right at 7 month mark, it was a few weeks after. Was that a miracle? IDK

 

[longboard55]

I do not disagree that it is very difficult for VGC at 7 months. However, it is not impossible. I just got 3 nights in a 1 bedroom this past Feb 16-19 (Presidents Day holiday weekend). One night was open and I had to waitlist the other two (using two separate 1 night waitlists) but they both came through. Just one data point. But I did not even look and book right at 7 month mark, it was a few weeks after. Was that a miracle? IDK

OK very difficult, yes days will pop up, but most people need to plan a trip around their schedule such as work and school. Just checked, one bedrooms and studios, none available in the 7 month window. So if your goal is California WDW points will not be much help. This why you can't compare costs between Florida and California. California currently has 48 rooms. Florida 5000

 

[Sandisw]

I'm not the buyer for this. I could care less about the Blue Card. You're more likely to find me on the flipside, in RIV resale in this discussion.

The buyer for this would want Blue Card, but not 11 month priority. That might be someone who wants MM or wants future properties or Sorcerer. You know, someone like a GA local-ish person who wants MM/Sorcerer or a Miami person who doesn't plan so far out but loves MM and future resorts. Or someone who wants future properties but thinks buy-in will just get crazier. Or, someone who doesn't plan to hold forever, and thinks saturation will impact the value of WDW resale.

For that person, buying DL makes more sense to me than buying RIV right now.

Except you are then at the mercy of the 7 month window and depending on travel, to me, that is pretty risky. If WDW is your target, then buying in at RIV, or VGF makes more logical sense to me than buying VDH and never using there.

As you mentioned, DVD has a lot of power to impact the resale market...like with VGF...so not sure why VDH would be immune to this in the future in terms of resale value for a restricted resort.

We know that I do not think anyone should go in to DVC with resale value as part of the equation, but if one is going to do it, I just don't see how you can say resale restrictions are a killer for RIV but wont be for VDH for someone buying to use at WDW

 

[RoseGold]

Except you are then at the mercy of the 7 month window and depending on travel, to me, that is pretty risky. If WDW is your target, then buying in at RIV, or VGF makes more logical sense to me than buying VDH and never using there.

I've booked most of my WDW trips at less than 7 months, including both of my trips this summer. There are plenty of people who don't (or can't) plan that far out.

As a lifelong commitment to a WDW property, I would lean Poly2. Heck, you might see me at Poly2 resale soon enough, haha. If you don't need 11 month, or plan to sell down the line, this DL buy in is special and we probably won't see it again IMO.

 

[Sandisw]

I've booked most of my WDW trips at less than 7 months, including both of my trips this summer. There are plenty of people who don't (or can't) plan that far out.

As a lifelong commitment to a WDW property, I would lean Poly2. Heck, you might see me at Poly2 resale soon enough, haha. If you don't need 11 month, or plan to sell down the line, this DL buy in is special and we probably won't see it again IMO.

Not saying that 7 months is impossible, but I definitely have not always gotten what I wanted at 7 months...so its not an absolute.

Again, your contention is that VDH is guaranteed to hold resale value even restricted...and there is no way you, or any of us know that will be true...

It may make sense to get VDH direct to use at 7 months...just like those who buy SSR resale to use at 7 months for SAP...but, given that you can get VGF, RIV, AUL, and a few other WDW resorts for less than VDH....which don't have the TOT tax as part of their dues (unless I am wrong)....why spend more for VDH if you aren't using that home resort advantage anyway?

 

[RoseGold]

Again, your contention is that VDH is guaranteed to hold resale value even restricted...and there is no way you, or any of us know that will be true...

Of course not, but we do know the inverse is true. Restrictions tanked RIV resale value, as intended. This will keep going, and WDW will keep building. More and more people will buy be trapped in RIV tower, like Cogsworth, booking all the studios. Maybe I'll be one of them if the price gets low enough.

Meanwhile, VGC may as well have had restrictions all along. No one is buying CA unless they want to stay at DL. IMO, the resale restrictions are a non-issue in CA.

VGC also launched in a recession, it was tough to sell. It turned out to be one of the best buys in DVC, and maybe all timeshares. It's too late for that kind of performance, pricing is starting too high. But the history of VGC shows me the power of a very limited market to hold resale value.

 

[Sandisw]

Of course not, but we do know the inverse is true. Resale has tanked RIV resale value, as intended. This will keep going, and WDW will keep building. More and more people will buy be trapped in RIV tower, like Cogsworth, booking all the studios. Maybe I'll be one of them if the price gets low enough.

Meanwhile, VGC may as well have had restrictions all along. No one is buying CA unless they want to stay at DL. IMO, the resale restrictions are a non-issue in CA.

VGC also launched in a recession, it was tough to sell. It turned out to be one of the best buys in DVC, and maybe all timeshares. It's too late for that kind of performance, pricing is starting too high. But the history of VGC shows me the power of a very limited market to hold resale value.

Huh? Resale at RIV has not been tanked....there are still plenty of people paying in the $130's for it...considering the people selling now likely paid in the $160's, that is not tanked...especially given that most resorts right now are selling for so much less...heck, VGF is even down in the $150's.

Tanking would be it was selling for less than all other resorts, and it is not. Regardless of whether or not VGC was used by most at VGC, it doesn't make it have "restrictions"...

Could VDH hold value better than RIV? Yes...but the big difference between VGC and VDH is that the TOT tax is going to be there for any resale buyer...because they can only use it there, and that alone is going to impact peoples choices.

So, while that direct buyer for VDH who doesn't use it there gets out of paying that tax...the resale buyer of VDH has no choice...and that is why I don't think you can use VGC as a comparision.

 

[RoseGold]

Could VDH hold value better than RIV? Yes...but the big difference between VGC and VDH is that the TOT tax is going to be there for any resale buyer...because they can only use it there, and that alone is going to impact peoples choices.

Yes, VGC looks even better after this announcment. I bet people who sold are kicking themselves. But, VGC has like 70 rooms. It isn't big enough to change anything. The question is whether 340 rooms can exhaust demand in California, which I think isn't close.

Meanwhile, WDW could be at saturation already, and it shows no signs of stopping.