Am I crazy?

[WRLeGrand]

Just wanted to throw this out:

My wife and I have been discussing potential vacation options for this year, given all that is going on. We are schedule for June at WDW, but obviously that is up in the air. We were also thinking about WDW later in the year if that comes to pass. But while thinking it over we were thinking, would it not be more possible that the Cruise Line would be "safer", potentially before the parks?

My theory is that obviously ports of call would be limited, if at all. If they can test the crew and passengers before sailing, it seems like they could maintain a relatively closed environment! Also, could do Castaway for enjoyment.

Just curious...

 

[_auroraborealis_]

would it not be more possible that the Cruise Line would be "safer", potentially before the parks?

It's highly doubtful. Ships, in general, are petri dishes. It is highly likely many ports will not permit Americans to disembark for quite some time. Current tests are point-in-time, and if you arrive during incubation you will come up negative, but be spreading the virus within days.

The Bahamas does control port calls at Castaway and had put restrictions up prior to the pause in all cruising, so assuming Castaway will happen is not a sure thing at all.

 

[a1tinkfans]

Eek!

 

[JM_97]

If I were you, I would wait

 

[NephieRN]

No ships are not “safer” than Disney world. The ships are floating Petri dishes. Nearly half our our cruise group came home with the flu after our February cruise. Stuff spreads like wildfire on ships. There is absolutely no way to social distance on them. I honestly don’t think we will see another ship sail from the US this year. They will be one of the last things to open.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

No. I think cruises will be the very last to get back up and running.

 

[monkeydawn]

I would expect the parks to be considered safer first. There is also the escapibility factor, easier in the parks than on a cruise if you dont feel safe.

 

[Allison]

Yes, yes, you are.

 

[GrnMtnMan]

I’ll offer a contrary opinion.

I don’t see how a cruise ship adds up to more than the sum of its parts. Its got restaurants, theaters, gyms, spas, and pools. People like to assert that ships are petri dishes, but out breaks of illness happen at church picnics, conventions, bar mitzvahs, and sporting events. Cruise ships are at least controlled environment with staff readily available to perform regular and frequent sanitation.

Which is another way of saying that I don’t see how the places I mentioned above will be ‘allowed’ to open, but ships will be prevented from operating (how quickly the ships can be staffed and up and running and operating economically is another story).

If there’s not already, there’s 30-40 million people in the USA out of work, and there’s lots of motivation to re-open the economy. People who are higher risk for harsh cases of COVID will likely be advised to continue to self-quarantine, but those with lower risk will be allowed to start getting back to normal. I think cruise ships and passengers will be in this latter category.

Its worth noting that widespread outbreaks were more the exception than the rule. Here’s some actual data for cases from before the lockdown:

The Wonder reportedly had 38 cases, with a crew of 950 and 2,400 passengers. Oasis of the Seas seemingly did pretty well with 157 cases on ship that had ~6,000 passengers and 2,100 crew. Plus there appear to be lots of ships that didn't have extensive outbreaks.

 

[AngelDisney]

The thought of being stranded at sea would put me off cruising for a while. Nothing is certain and anything can happen. I would definitely wait. Planning to cancel my December cruise and forego my OBB perks.

 

[MomOTwins]

Parks are petri dishes too--standing in lines all day, packed like sardines on buses and monorails and at rope drop, and how often do you think they wipe down the ride cars? I don't think I would really view one or the other as "better."

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Even one case on board can lead to not being allowed to dock and disembark, however. The USCG is still operating under a philosophy of "you're on your own" if anyone is ill.

Most conventions are not occurring. Sporting events with audience remain on hold indefinitely, and even the leagues have concerns about how to play and quarantine athletes. You can't tag at first with a 6-foot rule, and let's not even discuss hockey cross-check. Bundesliga is talking empty stadium matches.

Church picnics are bad ideas but also are falling under the umbrella of "you can't regulate public health because the 1st amendment!"

The more the US 'opens up," the less Mexico, Europe or the Caribbeans/Bahamas will want Americans visiting.

In fact, thinking it through, I think sporting events are a good parallel. LA won't allow sporting events all summer at a minimum. The sports leagues have significant owner input. Because stadiums will be under individual state and local regulation, it makes opening a league very difficult, which is why they're talking small area plans, no home fields. NHL is talking some stuff in the Northeast in a couple small arenas. MLB is talking using a couple Cactus League stadiums or similar. (MLB had mumbled about Grapefruit stadiums but the owners want to steer clear of Florida right now.)

In cruising, instead of owners you have sovereign nations. Even if PC opens, the Bahamas may not allow docking. Or Mexico. Or any of the other Caribbean islands. Even the USVI or PR can close their port without federal approval (or federal veto).

 

[starvenger]

"Ships are petri dishes". Never understood that, when you consider that you're in much closer proximity to people on planes.

Also, check out this article about a cruise ship that is finally getting to dock and unload passengers - https://globalnews.ca/news/6837898/coronavirus-world-cruise-disembark/

 

[_auroraborealis_]

"Ships are petri dishes". Never understood that, when you consider that you're in much closer proximity to people on planes.

It's really about length of exposure. Planes aren't great either, but at least it isn't a week. And crew aren't sleeping 3-4 to a berth on a plane, because aside from naps... crew don't live on planes.

 

[bakerworld]

We have a cruise scheduled for this November and DH says he keeps hearing rumors that DCL is going to stop all cruises until 2021

 

[WRLeGrand]

Funny that I brought this up, and it was the subject of the DCL Show on youtube today. Seems like Pete is much more thinking like I am with the fact that it really would be a controlled environment (provided adequate testing is in place). Just seems much more to me that once you are there and tested (subsequently cleared), you are there and cleared.

 

[StelmackFamily]

Funny that I brought this up, and it was the subject of the DCL Show on youtube today. Seems like Pete is much more thinking like I am with the fact that it really would be a controlled environment (provided adequate testing is in place). Just seems much more to me that once you are there and tested (subsequently cleared), you are there and cleared.

I just looked and cannot find the video you are talking about. The last video i see from DCL show is 4/15

 

[monkeydawn]

Funny that I brought this up, and it was the subject of the DCL Show on youtube today. Seems like Pete is much more thinking like I am with the fact that it really would be a controlled environment (provided adequate testing is in place). Just seems much more to me that once you are there and tested (subsequently cleared), you are there and cleared.

What Pete and you seemingly fail to recognize is that testing is a data point for one specific point in time. You could still be in the incubation time when you have a negative and the next day (or two, or three, etc.) you'd test positive. Unless you guys are suggesting daily testing and a sick wing somewhere on the ship for those that do test positive. There would still be some risk with only daily testing but it would be much lower than just testing once at the beginning of the cruise.

 

[WRLeGrand]

I just looked and cannot find the video you are talking about. The last video i see from DCL show is 4/15

Yeah the DIS released one today! I’ll post link tomorrow!

 

[WRLeGrand]

What Pete and you seemingly fail to recognize is that testing is a data point for one specific point in time. You could still be in the incubation time when you have a negative and the next day (or two, or three, etc.) you'd test positive. Unless you guys are suggesting daily testing and a sick wing somewhere on the ship for those that do test positive. There would still be some risk with only daily testing but it would be much lower than just testing once at the beginning of the cruise.

I understand what you are saying. I guess I just feel there are risks in life, and sometimes the best you can do is minimize those. Not saying everyone should go jump on a cruise, just that I really feel it would be a much more controlled/closed environment than the parks to begin with, provided they have testing. Moreover, Coronavirus is going to be here for a year to many years, just don’t see how we stay away from everything forever...