Airfare Dilema

[Justish]

Another question which has probably been asked a million times but I've used the search and can't really find exactly what I'm looking for.

Prices for Airline Tickets: How soon do they go down?

I'm looking for tickets for 6 people arriving 2/2/09 returning 2/13/08

The dates are flexible but still require 12 days total,
2 travel days, 10 in park and sometime in early february.

I checked out the cheap ticket websites which all seem to give me
$350-$400 price ranger per round trip ticket. Does this seem
right or will they go down significantly enough for us to wait to
buy? There are 6 of us so waiting too long may not be a good idea..
I just don't know..

I recently checked on similar dates in september (2nd to 13th that
month as well) and found the tickets to be more that $150 CHEAPER!
Is this normal?

Love to hear everyone's schemes for getting good deals on
Airfare.

Also to note: we do have a TA, would it be best to get tickets
through TA or is online a cheaper way?

Thanks!

~Ally

 

[uva185]

Personally I think it is waaaay to early to purchase tickets (especially at that price) for travel in February.

In regards to the prices in September, yes that is completely normal. Legacy airlines put airfares "on sale" about 2-4 months out. That is also why the "sale price" is not valid for the dates in February.

Since your dates are flexible I recommend using the Travelociy flexible date search tool and book no sooner than 3 months out.

I personally don't book anything more than about 6 weeks out. If you were traveling on a holiday weekend my advice would be different.

 

[Justish]

That makes a LOT of sense... I just wonder why the prices aren't low for "early buyers" AKA people who purchase tickets as soon as the flight is announced.. That'd be nice but I bet that isn't available for a reason....

I just wish I knew when the REALLY good deals would be? That way I can set my dates in stone and know when to buy the tickets at the best price without having to sacrifice at the chance of them not having enough tickets left!

~Ally

 

[RabbitFood]

There are several good airfare tracking tools--Farecast, Kayak come to mind. I'm not sure they'll track as far out as February yet.
What's your happy place re: airfare? When it gets there--buy!

 

[Justish]

My Biggest issue is I don't know what we SHOULD be paying for a ticket to MCO from PDX.

I honestly think about $180 - $200 would be a reasonable price (good deal)
for airfare, but in these economicaly stressed times I'd venture to pay about
$250 for a round trip ticket durring February ( a low flying time?).

Is this reasonable?

~Ally

 

[RabbitFood]

We fly a lot, and while there are still specials/deals to be found, I'm happy if our airfare is within a $100 over what we used to pay.
You're essentially going cross country--I think you'll be lucky to find airfare under $300.
I bought tickets going from the Midwest to California at just under $300 a person, but that was about five months ago.

 

[Justish]

Well, I have found air fare for way less than $300 cross country for
around september and late august, also in early october and early november.

I wish there was a way to see what prices were this past february....

!Ally

 

[GranddadTom]

With the cost of fuel being so high and continually going up, none of us has any real good feel for what’s going to happen 6 to 8 months out. What we’ve done in the past doesn’t seem to be much help in guiding us in our decisions this time around. My family doesn’t have a lot of freedom in when we got to WDW (kids in school) so we seem to be always looking for airline tickets either over Spring Break or the Holidays. Your timeframe may be better suited for deals. For Spring Break in 2007, we paid $278 each for round trip tickets from Baltimore (way above the $200 I was hoping for but you know how that goes). This year we are going down on December 19th and returning on the 23rd. I started checking airfare about three months ago when JetBlue and Air Tran first listed for that period. I had set $300 as a price that I would love to get to but $330 was my tipping point. I just watched those two but I felt confident that Southwest would come through for me once they announced their flights for December. I’ve read all the posts about Air Tran being in trouble but that doesn’t really bother me – I like Air Tran. Air Tran had some ok prices when they first came out but they went away fast (even though when I checked the seating chart, I didn’t see any seats being taken) and the round trip price stayed well over $400. Then, a week or so before SW came out, the AT prices started to go below $400. Finally the day for SW to announce their December fares came (June 26th) and I was shocked at the prices - $238 to MCO and $199 return – with the taxes, it was over $450. I’ve watched SW for a couple of weeks and they haven’t budged. Meanwhile, today AT dropped their prices to $196 down to Orlando and $99 back. With the taxes and the seat selection fee it came out to $328 round trip (19% more than last year). After I bought my 9 tickets, I could see the plane starting to fill up. Now I just have to hope and pray that they don’t change my flight to drastically. My sense is that around a month out, you’ll see some very good prices – especially if the economy continues to tank and people cancel holiday plans, leaving empty planes. For me, I’m happy with what I have and if prices go down, I’ll be happy for those brave souls who lasted longer than I did.

P.S. That February 13 date is getting close to the Presidents Day weekend, isn’t it?

 

[Justish]

P.S. That February 13 date is getting close to the Presidents Day weekend, isn’t it?

Oh don't i know it. But I'm more worried about Super Bowl on February FIRST
than I am presidents day... I guess I just didn't pick that smart a time
did I? Is presidents day really THAT big a deal in Florida?

~Ally

 

[kaytieeldr]

It's a Federal holiday, but it really doesn't matter if it's a big deal in Florida; what matters is it's a big deal in general. PLENTY of businesses are closed, schools are closed, government offices are closed... lots of people use any excuse for a trip to Disney World (see: "Jersey Week" ). In addition, school systems that provide a winter break take advantage of that shortened week to designate it as vacation.

Now, that said - Presidents Day is always the third Monday in February. The earliest possible date it can occur is February 15; the latest is February 21. I think. I was just counting on my fingers.

 

[Justish]

that would mean President's Day is February 16th...

But do you guys think that it would be busier to be leaving on the thirteenth as opposed to being in Disney world/arriving to disney world on superbowl sunday?

ticket prices effected greatly?
~Ally

 

[chemie15]

I found airfare for MCO @ $79 each way, I don't want to buy this early, but it is hard to pass that up

 

[Justish]

Wow, how in the hay did you find that? Thats probably not from portland to orlando though is it? Cross Country could NEVER get that low...
but that is a really really good deal! too bad you can't freeze time in the universe of air far till you are ready to buy!

~Ally

 

[CarolA]

Well, I have found air fare for way less than $300 cross country for
around september and late august, also in early october and early november.

I wish there was a way to see what prices were this past february....

!Ally

Last Febuary oil was a HECK of a lot cheaper then it is now.... there were more flights to MCO then there will be by next Febuary.

In this case, past history may not be the best indicator of future behavior.

 

[Justish]

Last Febuary oil was a HECK of a lot cheaper then it is now.... there were more flights to MCO then there will be by next Febuary.

In this case, past history may not be the best indicator of future behavior.

Well dang, thats a buzz kill.

I hate uncertain economic times! They make pre-pre-pre-planning a
total NIGHTMARE!!!

What if I wake up the morning after I buy my tickets and oil starts
raining from the skies and gas prices drop to $0.02 a gallon!?!?!?!?

The possibilities are too many to make even the least educated
guess!! ARGH!

and that concludes my silly frustrated mumblings!

~ally

 

[RabbitFood]

Something else you need to take into consideration--the major airlines are cutting 10% or more of their flights, so you'll have less to choose from/fewer seats available.
If you're really shooting for a specific time/day, you may need to buy sooner rather than later. That's why I like the faretracking sites--they send daily emails and when the fare is where I'm comfortable, I buy.

 

[DIZBOUND]

I found airfare for MCO @ $79 each way, I don't want to buy this early, but it is hard to pass that up

Why 79 each way!! Leaving form what airport? And what time frame are you looking at? I would oh so definately drive to Delaware, MD, or someplace else around to get airfare like that!!

 

[carolina_yankee]

JetBlue out of Newark comes in at around $235 RT for early January. Southwest out of Philly is actually around $280 RT. I don't think either has extended their dates to February yet, but those prices are probably a good guide for the bottom absent any sales.

If you fly Southwest, you might get a good sale or ding that gets it to around $200 RT, but you'll probably have to buy tickets just to know you'll have them, and then take credits for the difference if the fares drop.

As for oil and base fares, I'm not hopeful of a change in circumstances for at least 6 - 9 months, but that's just a guess. It's oil related, and that just doesn't seem to be changing any time soon. If there's a political component, the election might result in a short-term change for the better.

Dirk