Of course, analyzing data for a Broadway Musical CANNOT be done within a bubble. While a movie is produced for a specific amount, a theatrical production has a set of weekly expenses that a production must work against as the left-over profit pays back on the initial capitalization. THEREFORE, it is futile to determine what kind of a fiscal success AIDA is without knowing its weekly "nut". THAT BEING SAID, while some shows with low expenses can squeak on for a while despite a low weekly income, when you have a show with a weekly income as high as Aida's on Broadway--well, there's no need to mince words in calling it a fiscal success.
Is it bringing in New York locals? The answer--in truth--is a resounding yes.
It is a fantasyland to compare Aida to Riverdance for a number of reasons:
1) Riverdance has announced and publicized LAST WEEKS--and it is now closed. Such an announcement always "bumps" attendance.
2) The Gershwin Theater where Riverdance recently closed had approx. 250 extra seats, and is a two-level theater. THEREFORE, the price that can be charged can be higher because there is NO SUCH THING as a balcony seat--only Orchestra and Mezz.
Does that above point sound familiar? That is the reason they moved B&tBeast out of the Palace and into the Lunt-Fontanne--also a two-level theater. It is alot easier to sell full-price tickets in a Mezzanine to families with kids then to a more eclectic audience--especially in the period of time before Aida opened where it seemed to be a destined-failure.
Truth is, it wasn't, and nor is it one artistically. I like to call it my "guilty pleasure". In many ways, this is NOT a great show, but the book-ends (not a Disney touch--but rather a touch from Tony Winners Robert Falls and David Henry Hwang), are SO effective, as well as the tomb sequence that one cannot help but forget any previous indescretions--and the ending is all that matters because that's what you send them out remembering.
But back to the topic at hand: $$$$
Aida is selling 94% of its theater--the show which beat Aida for Best musical gets 79%--Contact. (Aida wasn't even nominated...) (All this being said, Contact is vastly superior.)
What of the other shows? The ones that WERE nominated for best musical?
The Wild Party? Finished
The Dead? Dead
Swing? Swung
But how to answer the charge that Aida is not performing as Disney had hoped?
To be honest, their hopes were WAY LOW!
They renamed the producing organization of Aida from Disney Theatrical Productions to Hyperion Theatrical productions.
They did the theatre shuffle to allow for bottom-end ticket prices upstairs.
They were up against precedent: the Atlanta Aida was a disaster and King David (an oratorio incorrectly staged at the New Amsterdam for a week pre-Lion King) set the stage to tell Disney that non-cartoon based productions were not gonna fly.
But Aida flew.
And how about the final proof?
Average ticket price.
Aida is fourth behind The Producers (@ $100 for an orchestra ticket), The Lion King, and The Full Monty.
And that takes into account those $20 and $30 tix in the balcony--and their average ticket price (the best determination of whether a show is discounting) is still high than that of the 2001 Best Musical Revival winner, 42nd Street.
Aida is going to be in that space for a while still to come.
Nick