Actual Crowd Levels

[Mambo Junkie]

Is there a place to find them? I did find the report from December 5th on the Touring Plans site, but I'm curious about November 29 - December 4. If the first few days of December were actual level 4 (especially at MK) I don't want to see a 7 ever. We planned our days around the crowd calendars and with a blooper on Sunday with DHS (which in reality was not that bad), we planned our days carefully. Is there anywhere I can see the actual stats? This will help me with future plans and whether I plan to ever go to WDW again. Dec 3 at MK was insane. I expected November 28 to be bad (and it was). Thanks!

 

[jtowntoflorida]

Did you only go to MK on non-party days (like December 3rd was)? Crowds are attracted to MK on non-party days and stay away from it on party days because of short hours, so the crowd levels are skewed on those days.

 

[Laketravis]

Mambo, the thing about those "Crowd Level" numbers is that they aren't based on the actual number of people in the parks, they are based solely on wait times for certain attractions.

So if they tell you a day is a "10" it's because wait times for some attractions are very high - even if there aren't very many people in the park.

Likewise, if they tell you it's a "5" but it feels like you can't walk down Main Street without bumping into someone, it's because few of those people are standing in a line for an attraction and the wait times are lower.

For those reasons I think "Crowd Level" numbers will become more ambiguous in the future as more and more guests utilize FP and Standby wait times continue to increase even with the same number of guests in the park.

At the very least, they should relabel them "Wait Levels" as they aren't necessarily indicative of actual crowd levels. And they should include the wait times for ALL attractions, because currently they only include selected attractions in their calculations.

 

[siskaren]

Mambo, the thing about those "Crowd Level" numbers is that they aren't based on the actual number of people in the parks, they are based solely on wait times for certain attractions.

I don't know about Touring Plans, but Josh (the guy who writes easyWDW) says his numbers are crowd levels; he doesn't say anything about them relating to wait times. (Although obviously, the more people in the parks, the longer the waits are going to be.)

So if they tell you a day is a "10" it's because wait times for some attractions are very high - even if there aren't very many people in the park.

Wrong. If a park is at a 10, it means it's packed, and most likely will have to have at least the lowest stage of closing. EasyWDW has every day from December 25-31 as a 10, and that is the most crowded week of the year.

 

[Laketravis]

Wrong. If a park is at a 10, it means it's packed, and most likely will have to have at least the lowest stage of closing.

Not wrong at all. Of course some days will be a 10 if the park is packed and people are standing in line. But if a park is only half full and everyone decides they want to stand in line for a few of the major attractions, the way TP calculates levels (based on wait times) they would rate that day a "10" - that doesn't mean the park was packed, it means wait times were very high because guests decided to endure them.

Additionally, TP uses a core sample of only 25 attractions across the 4 parks - and only uses sample data from 10am to 5pm each day.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

I don't know about Touring Plans, but Josh (the guy who writes easyWDW) says his numbers are crowd levels; he doesn't say anything about them relating to wait times. (Although obviously, the more people in the parks, the longer the waits are going to be.)



Wrong. If a park is at a 10, it means it's packed, and most likely will have to have at least the lowest stage of closing. EasyWDW has every day from December 25-31 as a 10, and that is the most crowded week of the year.

Not wrong at all. Of course some days will be a 10 if the park is packed and people are standing in line. But if a park is only half full and everyone decides they want to stand in line for a few of the major attractions, the way TP calculates levels (based on wait times) they would rate that day a "10" - that doesn't mean the park was packed, it means wait times were very high because guests decided to endure them.

You guys are comparing apples to oranges and are both correct. I'm not a TP subscriber, but I've read they base their crowd predictions on ride wait times. Easy WDW, on the other hand, bases his on park attendance. It's two different ways of looking at park attendance, and you can't really compare them because they look at different things.

 

[kerplop]

The 28th was supposedly at 7 and the 29th was a 6, which I felt was totally accurate when we were in the park. The 28th was insane and if that's only a 7 I can't imagine a 9 or 10 That said once Sunday rolled around it was pretty quiet and even the 29th wasn't too bad if you went to the park EasyWDW suggested (Epcot, which we did). It was a little busy in the WS in the afternoon, but morning and later in the evening were very decent. I'd say more a 4-5 than a 6 to me.

 

[Laketravis]

...That said once Sunday rolled around it was pretty quiet and even the 29th wasn't too bad if you went to the park EasyWDW suggested (Epcot, which we did). It was a little busy in the WS in the afternoon, but morning and later in the evening were very decent. I'd say more a 4-5 than a 6 to me.

Interesting that you say that because we were in Epcot on the 29th and like you thought WS didn't "feel" crowded at all, really nice to be able to walk around with what seemed like very few people but the wait times in FW were insane.

For instance, at one point around noon Spaceship Earth had a 65 minute Standby time. Test Track was at 100 and single rider was at 50.

 

[kerplop]

Interesting that you say that because we were in Epcot on the 29th and like you thought WS didn't "feel" crowded at all, really nice to be able to walk around with what seemed like very few people but the wait times in FW were insane.

For instance, at one point around noon Spaceship Earth had a 65 minute Standby time. Test Track was at 100 and single rider was at 50.

I think that it was honestly a matter of timing because we left FW right as WS opened so I think we got caught in that crowd of people moving from one to the other. I will say though you're right about Spaceship Earth - I don't know what happened, but we had a FP for like 10:45? And that line was mobbed. Even the FP line was all the way down into the little plaza area and we just rescheduled it for the evening. Came back for TT about 6pm and it was pretty quiet by then on the headliners, but I think that's also about when the light rain started and so that might have helped. Weirdly got off TT and the standby was like 20 minutes and walk on single rider and Livin' With the Land was at 30 minutes...which made no sense to me. So we skipped it this trip and rode TT again.

 

[Shaden]

You guys are comparing apples to oranges and are both correct. I'm not a TP subscriber, but I've read they base their crowd predictions on ride wait times. Easy WDW, on the other hand, bases his on park attendance. It's two different ways of looking at park attendance, and you can't really compare them because they look at different things.

But many people here have noted no one has access to the actual attendance numbers in the parks. I can't see how josh would get this information.

 

[Laketravis]

But many people here have noted no one has access to the actual attendance numbers in the parks. I can't see how josh would get this information.

He takes pictures. Lots and lots of pictures.

Like this one that I took on Thanksgiving afternoon - and would probably say something witty like "Look at how packed MK is..... "

[/URL][/IMG]

 

[btk2333]

He takes pictures. Lots and lots of pictures. Like this one - and would probably say something witty like "Look at how packed MK is..... " [/URL][/IMG]

Haha he definitely makes me laugh pointing out how being in the wrong park can adversely affect your opinion of how crowded the parks are!

Just remember that Disney is doing a very good job of getting people to parka even during slow times- a five in 2014 is much different than a five in 2008. There really aren't any days that are like the 1s 2s and 3s from 2008- just a function of increased attendance. That being said crowd levels are still accurate relative to other days- just that the slow times aren't as slow anymore.

 

[emldrl]

Does anybody try and cross reference the two main sources for crowd levels? I wonder if that would be a good estimate. If one says it's a 3, and one says 6, maybe plan on a 4.5? Just curious.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

I would be curious as to what the MK crowd level was on the 3rd. We got there around 3:15, had to slowly (too many people) make our way over to the Jungle Cruise (which had a 40 minute SB, but actual time was closer to 50+ minutes) then we decided to leave the park (for DHS) and thought it would be fun to ride the train in Frontierland but when we got there the platform was packed, the stairs were packed and the line stretched well out into the Splash Mountain waiting area. We left without riding at around 5:30. The only ride we rode was the Jungle Cruise. (although my husband and I didn't leave the park that night because when we got up to the gate to leave we discovered the missing backpack and we chose to wait at City Hall until park close while the rest of the party went on to DHS). I think the crowd level was supposed to be a 4 but felt much higher. There seem to be more groups just standing around, particularly in the walkways which made it harder to get around.

 

[cuchu2005]

Did you only go to MK on non-party days (like December 3rd was)? Crowds are attracted to MK on non-party days and stay away from it on party days because of short hours, so the crowd levels are skewed on those days.

Party days on the week following Thanksgiving were insane also. We really expected lower crowds due to Thanksgiving vacationers going back home and people choosing other parks because of the party, but Rope drop became esential if we wanted to have anything done at all with reasonable wait times.

There was not a single day we could say MK was slow.

On the other hand (and I know that maybe the comparison is not fair nor valid) Islands of Adventure was literally a walk on Dec 4th. We rode multiple times whatever we wanted with 5 mins. on most attractions.

Then we returned to MK on the 5th (party day) and felt really crowded. Maybe not insane crowded, but really higher than expected.

 

[wisblue]

I would be curious as to what the MK crowd level was on the 3rd. We got there around 3:15, had to slowly (too many people) make our way over to the Jungle Cruise (which had a 40 minute SB, but actual time was closer to 50+ minutes) then we decided to leave the park (for DHS) and thought it would be fun to ride the train in Frontierland but when we got there the platform was packed, the stairs were packed and the line stretched well out into the Splash Mountain waiting area. We left without riding at around 5:30. The only ride we rode was the Jungle Cruise. (although my husband and I didn't leave the park that night because when we got up to the gate to leave we discovered the missing backpack and we chose to wait at City Hall until park close while the rest of the party went on to DHS). I think the crowd level was supposed to be a 4 but felt much higher. There seem to be more groups just standing around, particularly in the walkways which made it harder to get around.

Touring Plans listed that day as crowd level 5 at MK.

As for the Jungle Cruise, it sounds like you ran into the post parade traffic jam. This is pretty common as people leave the parade route and head to attractions. The parade also makes it more difficult for people who aren't already in Adventureland to get there.

TP showed the posted wait time at JC at 25 minutes at 3:15 and 50 minutes at 4 PM. You probably arrived in between those times as the line was building.

 

[georgiesgirl]

We arrived at Disney World on Nov 29th and returned home on Dec 6th. We felt that crowds we smaller than in years past for the week after Thanksgiving. We went to all parks and had a great time.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

Touring Plans listed that day as crowd level 5 at MK.

As for the Jungle Cruise, it sounds like you ran into the post parade traffic jam. This is pretty common as people leave the parade route and head to attractions. The parade also makes it more difficult for people who aren't already in Adventureland to get there.

TP showed the posted wait time at JC at 25 minutes at 3:15 and 50 minutes at 4 PM. You probably arrived in between those times as the line was building.

You are probably correct. We were coming from the Wonderland Tea Party which ended at 3 and went to meet up with our party at MK. I did not even think about the parade crowd. The parade was just ending when we got into the park.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

We arrived at Disney World on Nov 29th and returned home on Dec 6th. We felt that crowds we smaller than in years past for the week after Thanksgiving. We went to all parks and had a great time.

I am used to going in January, September, slower times. We went in December 2 years ago and it seemed a lot less crowded then. I have just never been when it was a chore to get around, except maybe Christmas week about 6 years ago.

 

[kerplop]

We arrived at Disney World on Nov 29th and returned home on Dec 6th. We felt that crowds we smaller than in years past for the week after Thanksgiving. We went to all parks and had a great time.

We got there the day before you and left the day before you and this was 100% our assessment as well. We've gone during this time period a couple other times and this actually felt less crowded than other years. That said, there are some things that got bunched up from FP+ and we had to be more flexible for our touring plan, but we never felt crowded in. The only time we did was MK on the 28th of November and then in Future World in EP on the 29th in the morning. Otherwise it was really, really quiet in our opinion. We also follow EWDW religiously and as usual Josh was spot on.