What McGurn wrote is a gross mis-characterization of the effect of the abstinence pledge. That's the point.
I don't think I understand yet. You agree that the pledge makes no difference (the big headline) and you agree that "There
is a difference, with regard to these issues, relative to different beliefs and values." Why do you think that McGurn is mis-characterizing anything? He was essentially summarizing Bernadine Healy's (former head of the National Institutes of Health and the American Red Cross)
article in US News.
Dr. Healy's leads with the following point:
Pledges of no sex until marriage don't work, especially if taken by 15- or 16-year-olds, according to a recent study in the journal Pediatrics. Despite broken promises, however, virginity-pledging teens were considerably more conservative in their overall sexual behaviors than teens in generala fact that many media reports have missed cold.
That's precisely the nuance that I missed when I originally read this thread. It's what McGurn was saying. While the headline is that taking the pledge didn't change teens sexual behavior, it left a mistaken impression that teens taking the pledge had very similar sexual behavior to teens that did not take it. That doesn't logically follow.
The study looked at a population of teens taking the pledge. It also looked at a population of teens not taking the pledge. To control for effects other than the pledge, the study matched the pledgers with a subset of pledgers based on other factors (religion, participation in youth groups, birth country, friends drinking and drug habits, etc). The two matched groups behaved similarly, so the pledge apparently had no effect.
What Dr. Healy and McGurn are saying is that if you look at the pledge group and compare it to the total group of teens (not just the matched group), you do see differences. These include later age for becoming sexually active (21 vs 17) and fewer partners.
McGurn wasn't saying or even implying that the pledge caused these differences. He was saying that the factors used to normalize the pledge and non-pledge groups also correlated with these behavior differences. I think that was an important point because many people (including myself) mistakenly concluded that kids taking the pledge behave no differently than kids that did not take the pledge. That's not true. They do behave differently, but apparently it is factors other than the pledge itself that cause that difference.
It's interesting to compare two mainstream news articles on the subject. In the
Washington Post article, they put a sub-headline that is very misleading: "Teenagers Who Make Such Promises Are Just as Likely to Have Sex, and Less Likely to Use Protection, the Data Indicate". Read as is, most people would conclude that teenagers who took an abstinence pledge are just as likely to have sex as teenagers that didn't take an absitence pledge. That's not true and it's not the conclusion of the study. If the headline had included "compared with teens with similar values", it would have been properly understood. Even when I read through the entire WP article, it was hard to see how someone would pick that up.
In the
CNN article on the subject, they make it more clear. In the second paragraph, the say "While teens who take virginity pledges do delay sexual activity until an average age of 21 (compared to about age 17 for the average American teen), the reason for the delay is more likely due to pledge takers' religious background and conservative views -- not the pledge itself."
In summary, the study says that the pledge isn't effective. The study does not say that kids taking the pledge are as sexually active as those that do not. The data in the study show quite the opposite. McGurn was pointing that out for people like me that missed the difference in the reports that we read.