A new spin on "buy where you want to stay" vs. "points are points"

[nezy]

The one thing no one has yet commented on concerns price. Assuming a new buyer is buying OKW for cheapness of points, the difference in cost is not much at all!! OKW is going now for about $77, BWV for around $80. For a 150 pt contract, that cost is only about $450. When you are talking about a $10,000 purchase, that's not significant, over 30 years. The cost of dues is up to about $90 per year more than OKW, but if you HAVE to stay at BWV, it's worth the cost. I bought BWV in 1997, and it has become MUCH harder to find space there! I've had the "opportunity" to stay at the other resorts as a result, and I have found that my true love is actually OKW. That is a side benefit of increased difficulty at booking your home resort, but it's still irritating that you can't stay at "home" when you want to.

Whereas I have most points at BWV and have NEVER stayed there! I bookat 11 and then switch at 7.

It seems that much of this "competetion" concern would be premised by the idea that SSR buyers do not already have points.
Many people add-on in all resorts of interest so they can have the 11 month option of their choice.
Does anyone know the percentage of new buyers to add-on purchases?
Although, I know you cannot sell out SSR if you do not have many many new owners.

 

[nezy]

I think we're a pretty representative group. After all, virtually everyone quotes Ayn Rand!

:
Ayn Rand-doses he share the same philosophy as Jiminy Cricket?

 

[Dean]

Whereas I have most points at BWV and have NEVER stayed there! I bookat 11 and then switch at 7.

It seems that much of this "competetion" concern would be premised by the idea that SSR buyers do not already have points.
Many people add-on in all resorts of interest so they can have the 11 month option of their choice.
Does anyone know the percentage of new buyers to add-on purchases?
Although, I know you cannot sell out SSR if you do not have many many new owners.

I doubt any of us know for certain. The info I've seen suggests that most SSR owners are either new buyers or current members doing an add on simply for more points or for the later expiration. I know there are members who plan and expect to do most of their trips staying at SSR. Many of them will change their mind later but likely will some on the other side of the fence as well. I'll say again that even if it's 1 or 2% points difference in those planning to trade to other resorts compared to the revers, that will be a huge difference at the 7 month window and after. Do I think it's a problem, no, only to those that were ILL INFORMED and believed they'd be able to get anything they wanted at 7 months out. And even then, they should be able to be successful much of the time depending on what they are trying to get.

I agree with Crisi in that as long as you know what might happen, you have been informed and take your chances. I'd go a step further though and say that every single retail buyer had the same information provided to them about other resort booking rules and that includes OKW owners that bought before there were any other resorts.

 

[cruise-o-matic]

as long as you know what might happen, you have been informed and take your chances.

We took the tour of SSR and the guide was selling us SSR, not the other resorts. I will admit, that before the tour, I had been on these boards for several months, so I was a "more informed" buyer. We loved the resort and the tour helped sell DW on DVC. And we'd be happy to stay there, albeit, probably not our first choice.

But when it came time to buy, we more or less took the "points are points" approach and purchased HHI instead. Why?

Cost was the biggest factor...if you factor in closing costs, we saved about $12/per point over SSR, so we were able to get more points for the same $. HHI was cheaper than OKW and the MF's are relatively low, especially when you factor in the overage in '04 that was applied to our '05 dues, so our fees are actually $3.88/pt. Likewise, the high MF's at VB scared us off. Plus, we had immediate points (& banked points too) instead of having to wait for our SSR building to close.

But the other main factor was the 11 month advantage. We saw a couple at HHI - summers and studio access. (So far we have booked 2 studio stays at HHI, our one for Easter '06 was booked inside the 7 month window...go figure.) Plus, HHI is only a 6 hour drive and gives us an alternative to a WDW vacation. But more importantly, we didn't see any 11 month advantage to owning at SSR. Unless they start guaranteeing views (ala BWV), like DTD, the Paddock or Reedy Creek FD View, whoever checks in earlier gets first dibs.

As HHI owners, we we are taking our chances because we CAN'T book WDW until 7 months out. We figured that with the eventual largeness of SSR, we could get our pick of accommodations with relative ease at 7 months or less (especially since we want to avoid the "Premier" seasons). Same with OKW, sans the GV's.

Which leaves the smaller resorts - BCV/BWV/VWL. And if I call day-by-day at 7 months, I've got the same access as any non-owner of those resorts. Unless we get the wanta-gotta-needa for the smaller resorts, it's hard to justify the higher prices/MF's for these resorts, so we'll keep taking our chances at the 7 month window.

But, in a bizarro way, owning at HHI does give us an advantage to booking at WDW. I have to take the bonzai approach and call MS day by day at 9am as soon as the 7 month window opens. If what I want is not available, then I go to option 2 or down the line. But those (with limited points) that do the "book at 11, switch at 7" option, face the "bird in hand, two in bush" dilemna. Do I switch my ressie day by day and possibly wind up with a split stay? Or do I wait a week and switch my ressie all at one time but potentially lose out to those that call day by day?

 

[jade1]

But, in a bizarro way, owning at HHI does give us an advantage to booking at WDW. I have to take the bonzai approach and call MS day by day at 9am as soon as the 7 month window opens. If what I want is not available, then I go to option 2 or down the line. But those (with limited points) that do the "book at 11, switch at 7" option, face the "bird in hand, two in bush" dilemna. Do I switch my ressie day by day and possibly wind up with a split stay? Or do I wait a week and switch my ressie all at one time but potentially lose out to those that call day by day?

So you are saying its better to either get nothing at WDW and not even go to WDW, than the poor sole that is "stuck" with the original ressie or split between resorts? Thats an advantage? At least the original ressie means you can plan to go, get airfare, car, time off etc. If you use HHI, owning there makes pretty good sense, but it may be a stretch to justify it as an advantage for WDW ressies IMHO.

 

[cruise-o-matic]

So you are saying its better to either get nothing at WDW and not even go to WDW, than the poor sole that is "stuck" with the original ressie or split between resorts? Thats an advantage? At least the original ressie means you can plan to go, get airfare, car, time off etc. If you use HHI, owning there makes pretty good sense, but it may be a stretch to justify it as an advantage for WDW ressies IMHO.

My point is that I don't have my points tied up with one reservation while I try to switch to a new resort for the same dates. For example, I tried to get VWL for December at the 7 month window. It was not available, so I was able to get BCV instead. Am I disappointed in not getting VWL? No, I knew my chances were slim but I was able to get my 2nd choice. If I didn't get my 2nd, then I had 3 more resorts to try and I would have been happy at any of them.

But I do remember seeing a thread several months ago, where the poster booked their home resort at 11 months and tried to move to a different resort at 7. Because of point limitations...they didn't have enough to do dual reservations...they waited and tried to book all at once. But by then, all the day-by dayers, like myself, snagged the rooms.

Did I take a risk by buying HHI? Perhaps. Am I disappointed about using my points to stay at HHI? No, and we plan to go every other summer. Would I advise others to buy HHI? If you're in a similar position....do not plan to visit WDW during Premier Seasons, are saavy enough to call at 7 months day-by-day and do not care which WDW DVC resort you get....then, yes, and if you plan on using points at HHI, then definitely yes. Until I am unable to book WDW at the 7 month window or have to secure BWV SV during F&W or VWL at Christmas or an OKW GV during Easter, etc., then I don't see the need to pay a higher price.

YMMV

 

[Dean]

My point is that I don't have my points tied up with one reservation while I try to switch to a new resort for the same dates. For example, I tried to get VWL for December at the 7 month window. It was not available, so I was able to get BCV instead. Am I disappointed in not getting VWL? No, I knew my chances were slim but I was able to get my 2nd choice. If I didn't get my 2nd, then I had 3 more resorts to try and I would have been happy at any of them.

But I do remember seeing a thread several months ago, where the poster booked their home resort at 11 months and tried to move to a different resort at 7. Because of point limitations...they didn't have enough to do dual reservations...they waited and tried to book all at once. But by then, all the day-by dayers, like myself, snagged the rooms.

Did I take a risk by buying HHI? Perhaps. Am I disappointed about using my points to stay at HHI? No, and we plan to go every other summer. Would I advise others to buy HHI? If you're in a similar position....do not plan to visit WDW during Premier Seasons, are saavy enough to call at 7 months day-by-day and do not care which WDW DVC resort you get....then, yes, and if you plan on using points at HHI, then definitely yes. Until I am unable to book WDW at the 7 month window or have to secure BWV SV during F&W or VWL at Christmas or an OKW GV during Easter, etc., then I don't see the need to pay a higher price.

YMMV

One can do this with any points. And if you have enough points, you can keep the old reservation AND make the new one day by day.

 

[crisi]

I suspect that her point is that because she risks getting stuck at HH, or getting moved around Disney (two nights at SSR, three at the BCV, one back at SSR) that she is more motivated to make the call right at seven months. I can see that - its one of those "know yourself" things.

I've posted this before, but when we bought I saw myself using all the DVC resorts. Now I sort of doubt we will stay anywhere other than home unless we book on shorter notice. I'm not "the type" to bother to switch. So for me, having a home resort I'm content with is important. HHI would be a disaster for me - I'd spend several months stressing, than procrastinate or space making the phone calls when they needed to be make.

 

[jade1]

Really anyone with WDW DVC points could just wait to the 7 month window and book day by day if it was indeed a "better" way to book as you suggest. But I have a feeling that is not vary often the case.

It is possible that having nothing at 7 months could mean you never get a ressie at all, where worst case for the 11 month ressie is staying with your home resort and I dont think any of the WDW DVC Resorts are that bad that it would ruin a stay. If you dont have enough points to go day by day with a second ressie, you just go on a wait list for the whole week.

If you really are only planning off peak stays, you should be fine. I am sure most members visit at either peak WDW times or peak DVC times (hence the word peak or premier) and would just not want to risk it every single time they plan a DVC trip to WDW.

 

[Caskbill]

Finally, you should be aware that John Zogby, America's most celebrated pollster, is now basing much of his analysys on INTERNET SURVEYS! Not the same as a disboard posting, but you get my drift.

Reminds me of a statistics class I had in Grad School long ago where this example was brought up:

In the 1930's pollsters telephoned what they thought was a representative sample of voters, and asked who they were going to vote for in an upcoming election. Based on the survey results, they predicted a victory for the Republican candidate.

In the actual election, the Democrat candidate won. The pollsters failed to realize that people who didn't own telephones yet tended to be Democrats. There sample base was highly skewed as telephone owners did not represent the full population.

The same can be said for the internet.

I hope that John Zogby has learned that.

 

[cobbler]

I bought into SSR. Why? Because it was the only one that Disney itself is selling right now and we financed + it has the longer contract period, end is 2054 instead of 2042. Now I know the financing wasn't favorable but they offered some great incentives and since we plan on staying deluxe from here on out it was a wise choice to lock in now than in 4 years when we planned on buying. Plus we plan on having it paid in 4 years instead of the 10.

But I liked SSR and I plan on staying there quite a bit. I would like to try the others eventually but know that during the time of year I go (week after Thanksgiving) BCV will be impossible to get and I am ok with that. Plus SSR has the second lowest maintanence fees so that helped too. I really wasn't to fussy but the big seller to me was the longer contract period.

Although our guide did mention (can't remember how this came up) something about pool hopping and Stromalong bay and to the effect of if those that bought into BCV think that is cool, wait until they build the next DVC resort. Don't know what that means but ????

 

[crisi]

Reminds me of a statistics class I had in Grad School long ago where this example was brought up:

In the 1930's pollsters telephoned what they thought was a representative sample of voters, and asked who they were going to vote for in an upcoming election. Based on the survey results, they predicted a victory for the Republican candidate.

In the actual election, the Democrat candidate won. The pollsters failed to realize that people who didn't own telephones yet tended to be Democrats. There sample base was highly skewed as telephone owners did not represent the full population.

The same can be said for the internet.

I hope that John Zogby has learned that.

Truman. Its the famous headline with Truman holding up a paper that says "Dewey wins" In the 1930/40s only Republicans had phones. 1948 was the year by the way.

 

[crisi]

Although our guide did mention (can't remember how this came up) something about pool hopping and Stromalong bay and to the effect of if those that bought into BCV think that is cool, wait until they build the next DVC resort. Don't know what that means but ????

I'd guess that's the Contemporary rumor.

There are always going to be features to each DVC resort that are attractive to people. Some may think SAB is the best thing since sliced bread, others may like the beautiful windows and countertops at SSR. Some might like the access to the MK and theming of VWL. Some might like the large rooms/low points of OKW. Some might think the idea of the Boardwalk view is worth owning at BWVs. Simply means that there are better and worse choices for you, and my better and worse choices may be different.

 

[spiceycat]

you can probably get BWV some of the time. but some of the time you won't be able too.

so would staying at OKW destroy you - I don't think so.

now what might get you mad is not being able to get a standard view.

so paying 12 points for BWV might get you to stay at OKW 8 points (studios)

OKW is a lovely resort and my family loves it.

the other resorts are nice. but everyone is different.

if you can try them out before you buy.

OKW studios is the only one with 2 queen beds, the others have a queen bed and a double sleeper sofa.

 

[cobbler]

How can you not KNOW???!!!

Again and again I read posts from people who say they just bought at SSR but there first stay is booked elsewhere. Why would they do this? After all, if I had just bought in, my first impulse would be to stay at my home resort. Rarely, if ever, have I seen members chortle about how they just got a BCV contract, but they think they'll stay at SSR for their first visit. I'm not saying it's never happened, but it is certainly not the flow of the posts I've read.

You can count me in as going to go to my home resort for the first time. Actually we are buying today and getting things finalized over the course of this week. We have another trip coming up in 7 weeks and once things are done or at least once I have points in hand I am moving to anywhere that has availibility for a one bedroom checking in the Sunday after Thanksgiving. We are definatly going to try our home resort first but at this point I will take anywhere that has an opening because darn it all I am not staying at ASMo when I own DVC.

However I do eventually want to try other resorts but won't be upset if I can't

 

[jarestel]

In the 1930's pollsters telephoned what they thought was a representative sample of voters, and asked who they were going to vote for in an upcoming election. Based on the survey results, they predicted a victory for the Republican candidate.

We need go back no further than the 2000 election to see that statistical sampling is not yet a "science", but rather a series of educated guesses. Remember President Gore?

I think that's all we try and do here is make somewhat informed "leaps of faith" as to what will happen within DVC in the future based on a severely limited knowledge of DVC's internal workings and future plans.

 

[cobbler]

I'd guess that's the Contemporary rumor.

There are always going to be features to each DVC resort that are attractive to people. Some may think SAB is the best thing since sliced bread, others may like the beautiful windows and countertops at SSR. Some might like the access to the MK and theming of VWL. Some might like the large rooms/low points of OKW. Some might think the idea of the Boardwalk view is worth owning at BWVs. Simply means that there are better and worse choices for you, and my better and worse choices may be different.

Nope asked about the Contemporary rumor and he said he didn't know but that it was a rumor going around. I think he means the next DVC resort they plan on building. He said they just finished phase 2 of SSR and are just starting construction on phase 3.

And that brings me to another question. I have no problem staying at my home resort but wouldn't mind trying out the others so am I doing something taboo around here?? If I couldn't stay at them, no biggie but it sure is fun to try other things. Besides I have this quirk I want to stay at every resort on property

Also how hard is it to get into a 3 bdrm at OKW for the week after Thanksgiving? Hubby wants to take the extended family and our guide suggested if we ever wanted to do a 3bdrm go OKW because its only 180 points vs 335 at our home resort.

 

[spiceycat]

3-bedroom during that time would probably be hard to get.

very popular time for DVC members.

You can trade your points for OKW points - just go post on the rental/trade board.

if disney ever did close down the right to go to other resorts you are forgetting the rental/trade board here.

we could still trade our points for others - if DVC did away with that -we could make reservations for each other.

there are ways around anything!

 

[jarestel]

And that brings me to another question. I have no problem staying at my home resort but wouldn't mind trying out the others so am I doing something taboo around here?? If I couldn't stay at them, no biggie but it sure is fun to try other things. Besides I have this quirk I want to stay at every resort on property

Absolutely not. Staying at all of the resorts is part of the fun of having a program like DVC. Enjoy them all!

 

[crisi]

We need go back no further than the 2000 election to see that statistical sampling is not yet a "science", but rather a series of educated guesses. Remember President Gore?

I think that's all we try and do here is make somewhat informed "leaps of faith" as to what will happen within DVC in the future based on a severely limited knowledge of DVC's internal workings and future plans.

Actually, statisically President Gore worked. That election was just so close that it was within the margin of error for any sample size short of a whole population.

President Kerry, however, where they did a lot of projections based on exit polls, didn't work - that wasn't even inside the sampling error. And I'm not sure why - some people have proposed that people who voted for Kerry were more likely to admit it and talk to pollsters. I haven't paid a lot of attention to the analysis of exit polls and why they failed however. Haven't even really looked at the methodology.