A new spin on "buy where you want to stay" vs. "points are points"

[chloe]

Yes, this debate is getting tiresome (and I haven't even joined DVC yet). But it seems to me a lot of people give well intended advice based on PAST experience.

As Dean mentioned, we do not know what the impact of Saratoga Springs will have on the availability of smaller resorts in the future. Logically I can't imagine that given the sheer volume or SSR that it won't have some negative impact on availability of small resorts in a year or two.

I find it scary the number of post from people exploring buying into SSR, but *really* desiring other resorts (this is me, by the way).

PAST availability is no guarantee of FUTURE availability.

 

[Caskbill]

I have a fairly decent statistics background, and can state with a fair amount of certainty that mathematically getting into non-home resorts will become more difficult as the total population of DVC membership grows.

The smaller the resort and the more popular it is, the more difficult it will be.

While mathematically a proof can be developed showing x% of Y equals....etc, it's not necessary as simple common sense and deductive reasoning gives the same answer. When there were 40,000 members it was one thing, but when it becomes 140,000 members, and the number of 'standard Studios' (for example at BWV) remains the same, simple logic tells you there will be more competition for certain resorts.

It also means that if you own at a specific resort and want to stay there, it'll become more and more necessary to plan and book your vacations before the 7-month window opens.

Of course even mathematically we can't predict the true final impact as to whether it will be 'impossible' or just 'more difficult', but we can predict with certainty that it will not be the same as it was in the past.

Just my 2-cents.

 

[mydogdrew]

It also means that if you own at a specific resort and want to stay there, it'll become more and more necessary to plan and book your vacations before the 7-month window opens.

I agree with your post except I would modify to say "it will be more and more necessary to book as close to the 7-month window as possible". Before opening implies that the resort owners are always competing with each other for rooms at their home resort. This is true at times but not always. I do think more members will book before 7 months in the future than now but there still will be a decent inventory of rooms (exclude BWV std view, OKW grand villas, BCV dedictated 2B2Q) most of the year right at 7 months. However, that inventory will close quickly in the future.

It may be entirely possible to book Jan, May and Sep anywhere on short-notice even after SSR sells out. I own at BWV and recently had to change our January 2006 plans. I gave up 1BR std view the week of the 9th and booked same for the following week. I had to wait list for Sunday night (holiday) but otherwise no problem. This is at 4 months out.

 

[Caskbill]

I agree with your post except I would modify to say "it will be more and more necessary to book as close to the 7-month window as possible". Before opening implies that the resort owners are always competing with each other for rooms at their home resort.

Yes, that's correct. The competition between owners at a specific resort will not increase since the number of owners is fixed. It only impacts that there is an ever increasing number of non-home resort owners. Perhaps the better way would have been to say it will become more and more necessary to take advantage of the home resort priority window.

Keep in mind the true impact won't be felt for years from now. What will it be like in 15 years from now, after SSR is completely done, and perhaps by then they've build EP after all, and maybe even built the rumored CR DVC, or some other DVC. Since DVC is considered by most to be a long-term purchase for future vacations, one should consider the long term impact that a home-resort advantage will mean years down the road.

 

[Dean]

Not to continue to drag this post on until our memberships run out, but, it is my understanding that being able to use our points at any resort other than our home resort is a perk that DVC does not have to honor forever. I think once they finish selling new memberships, they may remove this benefit and say, OKW people can only book at OKW... I may be wrong, but would like to hear the facts.

Technically that is true but highly unlikely. I wouldn't worry much about losing the resorts unless say lost to a natural disaster with VB and HH being the most at risk. In this regard, SSR and OKW would be the most protected.

As for booking at the 7/11 month window, I think more and more people are figuring out to book closer to the 11 month window. Thus there are more issues than simply owning a resort. To get the most in demand options you need to go get it at the 11 month window, frequently day by day.

 

[Danthesand]

To get the most in demand options you need to go get it at the 11 month window, frequently day by day.

BWV owner here, and the above is correct. A BWV preferred BW view is now basically impossible to get unless booked day by day 11 months out.

 

[Brian430]

Right now, the 11-month window isn't overly important but it will be soon.

Fact is OKW and SSR are simply not at the same level as VWL, BWV and BCV – either in design or location. And a lot of people who are buying into the new SSR will more than likely will want to stay near Epcot (BCV or BWV) or near the Magic Kingdom (VWL). Plus, besides their proximity to the parks these resorts are simply nicer.

Sadly, they're also much smaller than the SSR, which continues to grow.
So, you will soon have owners in the hotel with thousands of rooms all competing to get into the hotels that have just hundreds of rooms. (And I doubt many VWL owners will be fighting to get into SSR).

The sales team can tell you whatever they want, but the sheer size of SSR will eventually mean that where you buy is where you'll have to stay. All points are not created equal - because not all DVC properties we're built to the same standards.

 

[RLevy29]

Right now, the 11-month window isn't overly important but it will be soon.

Fact is OKW and SSR are simply not at the same level as VWL, BWV and BCV – either in design or location. And a lot of people who are buying into the new SSR will more than likely will want to stay near Epcot (BCV or BWV) or near the Magic Kingdom (VWL). Plus, besides their proximity to the parks these resorts are simply nicer.

Sadly, they're also much smaller than the SSR, which continues to grow.
So, you will soon have owners in the hotel with thousands of rooms all competing to get into the hotels that have just hundreds of rooms. (And I doubt many VWL owners will be fighting to get into SSR).

The sales team can tell you whatever they want, but the sheer size of SSR will eventually mean that where you buy is where you'll have to stay. All points are not created equal - because not all DVC properties we're built to the same standards.

I do not agree that a lot of people will more than likely want to stay near Epcot or the MK. They may want to try out these resorts, but that does not mean that they will want to stay there all of the time. We own at both BCV and OKW and stay at both at different times of the year for different reasons. We have also stayed at WLV with the 7 month window.
What level are you talking about? I agree that location is an issue with some people. However, room size is also an issue with some people who enjoy having more space in their room. Some of the amenities that are offered at BWV, BCV, and WLV are not even used by some people. Some people may feel that they are at Disney and not care what resort that they are in. I just don't think that you can make blanket statements about what people may or may not want in the future. How can you make the general statement that WLV owners may not want to stay at SSR? They may not have to fight to get in there because as you pointed out, there are way more rooms. We also have no idea what resorts Disney has planned in the future.

 

[Dean]

I do not agree that a lot of people will more than likely want to stay near Epcot or the MK. They may want to try out these resorts, but that does not mean that they will want to stay there all of the time. We own at both BCV and OKW and stay at both at different times of the year for different reasons. We have also stayed at WLV with the 7 month window.
What level are you talking about? I agree that location is an issue with some people. However, room size is also an issue with some people who enjoy having more space in their room. Some of the amenities that are offered at BWV, BCV, and WLV are not even used by some people. Some people may feel that they are at Disney and not care what resort that they are in. I just don't think that you can make blanket statements about what people may or may not want in the future. How can you make the general statement that WLV owners may not want to stay at SSR? They may not have to fight to get in there because as you pointed out, there are way more rooms. We also have no idea what resorts Disney has planned in the future.

The question is what is the balance. I think it's VERY likely that a higher percentage of SSR and OKW owners will be trying to get into BWV, BCV and VWL than the reverse. Even if it's only 1 or 2% difference, that will be enough to make a large difference in those wanting 7 month reservations, esp at the above 3. And given that we already know there are difficult times at BCV, BWV and VWL more than the others, I think we have some pretty good proof already to support my theory. Does it matter in the end, it depends. If one just wants a place to stay at WDW and try all the resorts over time and is comfortable with the home resort, no it will not. But it will make a big difference to anyone who bought a different resort but mostly want to use BCV, BWV and/or VWL every time at higher demand times. I still think most people can ultimately be successful but it will require more planning and effort.

 

[cruise-o-matic]

The competition between owners at a specific resort will not increase since the number of owners is fixed.

But the "Demographics" of the owners may change, which would increase competition between owners. Take BCV for example. In the past, non-BCV owners probably had relatively good success booking at the 7 month window. Now, with influx of SSR owners in the mix, there's more competition, or at least, perceived competition at the 7 month window.

Now those non-BCV owners that need their BCV fix have started to gobble up BCV points to the extent that DVC has a long waitlist and on the resale market, the prices much higher than the ROFR threshold. I mean why pay extra unless it is your intent to use the 11 month booking advantage?

So as BCV ownership turns over, BCV owners are becoming more and more "only BCV for me" owners.

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

Right now, the 11-month window isn't overly important but it will be soon.

Fact is OKW and SSR are simply not at the same level as VWL, BWV and BCV – either in design or location. And a lot of people who are buying into the new SSR will more than likely will want to stay near Epcot (BCV or BWV) or near the Magic Kingdom (VWL). Plus, besides their proximity to the parks these resorts are simply nicer.

Sadly, they're also much smaller than the SSR, which continues to grow.
So, you will soon have owners in the hotel with thousands of rooms all competing to get into the hotels that have just hundreds of rooms. (And I doubt many VWL owners will be fighting to get into SSR).

The sales team can tell you whatever they want, but the sheer size of SSR will eventually mean that where you buy is where you'll have to stay. All points are not created equal - because not all DVC properties we're built to the same standards.

I think in the short run owners of other DVC units will try to get into SSR just to try it out. The problem is that SSR owners are new and will more than likely have a need to try out all of the other DVC's...by definition that need will last longer since its 4 to 6 other units versus one for everyone else. Oddly enough I'm still trying to get into SSR but each time I've tried I couldn't get the full timespan and thus wound up elsewhere (VWL owner here).

Not to get into a discussion about what is better but for me every DVC has its pros and cons... SSR has the same major "pro" for me that BWV and BCV have...the opportunity to roll on home without getting into a car or bus after an evening of "indulgence".

 

[crisi]

It doesn't really make any difference how appealing the resorts are. SSR and OKW are simply so much bigger than the other resorts that even if all resort owners wanted to switch at equal rates and all resorts were equally appealing, smaller resorts will book faster.

If all the resorts were the same size and equally appealling, there would be some balance to the system. But all the resorts are not the same size. And while each resort has its charms, at certain times of year some resorts are have an undenible extra push to their popularity (i.e. holiday time at VWL or F&W at BWV/BCV).

 

[Cruelladeville]

The one thing no one has yet commented on concerns price. Assuming a new buyer is buying OKW for cheapness of points, the difference in cost is not much at all!! OKW is going now for about $77, BWV for around $80. For a 150 pt contract, that cost is only about $450. When you are talking about a $10,000 purchase, that's not significant, over 30 years. The cost of dues is up to about $90 per year more than OKW, but if you HAVE to stay at BWV, it's worth the cost. I bought BWV in 1997, and it has become MUCH harder to find space there! I've had the "opportunity" to stay at the other resorts as a result, and I have found that my true love is actually OKW. That is a side benefit of increased difficulty at booking your home resort, but it's still irritating that you can't stay at "home" when you want to.

 

[SimbaCub]

I had never had problems booking at 7 months for "non-home" resorts prior to 2004. I had trouble booking a room at 7 months out last year for the first time. I have been an owner since 1997 so I guess I was lucky for 6 years being able to try out other resorts. I bought into OKW initially as I liked it when I saw it. When I heard VWL was going to be DVC I knew I had to stay there and knowing the 11/7 month booking window I knew it "might" be a problem later. I have found that booking VWL for the first part of December nearly impossible without the 11 month booking window. I think early on it wasn't as important where you had points but it is now. I even had an opportunity to stay at HH for 2 "non-peak" times. I agree as more and more people join it's going to be important to own points where you "want" to stay vice just staying anywhere.

SimbaCub
VWL Thanksgiving 2005
OKW May 2006

 

[goldilocks_63]

I also think with the new improved point tracking system (if and when it comes), may also make the home resort priority an issue.

IF DVC starts tracking which resort a point belongs too (Home resort priority), in the case of transfers, then some people who have been skating around the rules will have a even harder time to get their favorite resort at a "discount". (For example, use SSR / OWK points to xfer into a BCV, BWV, or VWL account, to get the window).

IMHO, Goldi

 

[Cinderella]

Another thing to consider is whether you are the organised type who books 11 months out anyway. I am not - well i was for this next trip, but then i changed my mind what month i wanted to go. My home resort WLV was not available for January. Am now going to try to change again to December - wish me luck! I really do think it depends whether you are fussy about where you stay when you get there. Personally i would love to stay in my home resort - but then again, i would love to stay in any DVC resort. Only you can decide how much staying at BWV would matter for each trip.

 

[Andrew Bichard]

I always stay at BWV, though my home resort is Wilderness Lodge.

I have never failed to get what I want at the seven month window for BWV. I visit in September, October or the very beginning of November. This year I even got what I wanted during Food and Wine!

And I leave home tomorrow!!

Andrew

 

[Brian430]

booking at the 7-month window.

But it is inevitable that the 11-month window will be more valuable in the near future.

SSR is not even close to being done yet. When it is there will be nearly 100,000 additional families who will be eligible for the 7-month window competition.

Plan accordingly...

- B

 

[SoCalKDG]

I always stay at BWV, though my home resort is Wilderness Lodge.

I have never failed to get what I want at the seven month window for BWV. I visit in September, October or the very beginning of November. This year I even got what I wanted during Food and Wine!

And I leave home tomorrow!!

Andrew

Does that include a studio/1 bedroom/2 bedroom boardwalk view/standard view? Thats the main reason to own at BWV. To guarentee any room type overlooking the boardwalk or guarentee lower point costs in a standard view.

Sure people always got what they wanted when there were only 50,000 owners. Now its up to 100,000 and availability isn't always there. What do you expect when it hits 150,000 people?

 

[Mississippian]

As Dean mentioned, we do not know what the impact of Saratoga Springs will have on the availability of smaller resorts in the future.

How can you not KNOW???!!!

Again and again I read posts from people who say they just bought at SSR but there first stay is booked elsewhere. Why would they do this? After all, if I had just bought in, my first impulse would be to stay at my home resort. Rarely, if ever, have I seen members chortle about how they just got a BCV contract, but they think they'll stay at SSR for their first visit. I'm not saying it's never happened, but it is certainly not the flow of the posts I've read.

Perhaps these people stayed at other resorts because they wanted access to dining options, which SSR doesn't offer. Perhaps they wanted easy access to the parks, which SSR doesn't offer. Are people going to quit eating and going to the parks? If so, why have DVC in the first place?

Bad money drives out good. If you start making quarters out of nickel instead of silver, the silver will still circulate. But slowly but surely the silver will start to disappear. Oh, it might take a while, as they will still circulate. But after a while, those who can get their hands on silver won't let go. In the context of DVC, those with the 11-month option get the silver coin.

Make no mistake, if SSR had lots of nice restaurants and great access to the parks, I'd be fighting to get in there. And for some people, these things just aren't important. But for most, they are important -- very important. And so we are going to have a huge group of people who think that SSR is "okay," but they really are going to try to stay elsewhere.

It will make the 7-month window harder to book. I KNOW this. Any thinking person knows this as well.

By the way, for the MANY people who like SSR, I'd glad you're happy. But please don't pretend that you haven't noticed the large number of people buying in there in hopes of staying elsewhere. Also, the extra years are important for many people, which can make SSR a good business decision, even though it makes life less desireable for owners at other resorts. So please understand, there is nothing wrong with owning at SSR if that is your choice, but the large number of owhers there are going to make it harder to book the smaller resorts. This is just fact, and if there was a way to give five- or 10-to-one odds on it, I would.

Edited to add: Chloe, I just re-read your post and saw that you disagreed with Dean from a logical standpoint. So I guess my remarks are really meant for Dean more than you.