A lot of BLT available?

[Salf777]

I am in waiting for ROFR on a BLT accepted offer. Naturally I scan the resale sites daily LOL. Suddenly I feel like there is a load of BLT contracts for sale. Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that? I want a BLT contract but also figured with all the refurbishment at Contemporary (not that the contemporary is BLT), new restaurant new lobby etc BLT would become more desirable

 

[Nabas]

I am in waiting for ROFR on a BLT accepted offer. Naturally I scan the resale sites daily LOL. Suddenly I feel like there is a load of BLT contracts for sale. Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that? I want a BLT contract but also figured with all the refurbishment at Contemporary (not that the contemporary is BLT), new restaurant new lobby etc BLT would become more desirable

In general, resales have really slowed down, causing inventory to rise.

See:

August 2021 Resale Volume Continues To Decrease - DVCNews.com - The essential Disney Vacation Club resource!

 

[jbreen2010]

My guess is post pandemic a lot of people have seen the prices increase drastically for their DVC contracts so they went ahead and listed. I noticed the market felt a bit flooded as well...to your point there were about 8 of the same use year & # of points of BLT contracts that I saw on one site (I think it was Feb use year), so you have to say to yourself that having that much of a supply should start to hurt the price.

Although, that's probably what disney wants so they can scoop in and buy them back at ROFR

 

[DisneyDad0315]

I noticed the same thing with Aulani. There are a ton of contracts for sale now. My wife and I are looking into making some offers on small contracts.

 

[Salf777]

My guess is post pandemic a lot of people have seen the prices increase drastically for their DVC contracts so they went ahead and listed. I noticed the market felt a bit flooded as well...to your point there were about 8 of the same use year & # of points of BLT contracts that I saw on one site (I think it was Feb use year), so you have to say to yourself that having that much of a supply should start to hurt the price.

Although, that's probably what disney wants so they can scoop in and buy them back at ROFR

Thats so funny thats what I have an accepted offer on and need is February use year! Im happy to see that the price Im paying is still a bit below most of the listed prices so Im still happy LOL! Hopefully it passes ROFR

 

[kilik64]

You werent kidding, 80 contracts of BLT on board sponsor site alone. A lot hanging around since june/july too. Either market slowed, no one wants BLT, they are priced too high, or board sponsor is the owner and wont drop price on the older ones.

 

[FamilyMc]

I am also waiting for a BLT contract, which is in ROFR. And I am watching the BLT offers very carefully. There are more offers today than in the beginning of September. 67 avaiable offers from the 80 listed, which is the number mentioned above. But there is no measurable drop of prices In the last 2 or 3 weeks. For instance: the “cheapest“ offer is listed at 158$/pt, and it‘s listed since beginning of August. In this contract all 2022 points were used, thus, the “real“ cost per point is 16 to 18$/pt higher, imho, compared to a loaded contract with 2022 point. And the next 4 offers do not have any 2022 point either.

I am very curious to the see the average sale price per point in September. In August it was unbelievable high at 177$. My crystal ball suggests to bet on 165$ or something like that. We will see.

To answer the OP‘s question: yes, there is an increase of listed contracts, but price drop took place in the first half of September.

 

[BillPA]

As Disney keeps raising prices on every thing, tickets, food, parking, no DME or luggage service, restrictions on park admission ... many DVCer's are selling to recover what they can before the bottom drop out. WDW is doomed if they don't change their policies quickly.

 

[FamilyMc]

As Disney keeps raising prices on every thing […]
WDW is doomed if they don't change their policies quickly.

Oh, what a dark prospect.

In the last decade Disney showed that they can adjust ticket and hotel prices downwards, if there is a significant drop in demand. Hotel rack rates were decreased a year or two after Lehman. And later once again, IIRC. Probably it‘s time for Disney to step on the brakes, again.

 

[TheEpcotForEver]

I’ve always wondered if those “average prices” updates that the sponsor makes blog posts of is based off the actual selling price, or the listing price

 

[JETSDAD]

I’ve always wondered if those “average prices” updates that the sponsor makes blog posts of is based off the actual selling price, or the listing price

Those are sale prices, not list prices.

 

[kanerf]

I noticed this also, but they are priced very high in many cases. I see small contracts priced over $200/pt. That is ridiculous when developer at Riviera and Aulani is going for $201/pt.

 

[JETSDAD]

I noticed this also, but they are priced very high in many cases. I see small contracts priced over $200/pt. That is ridiculous when developer at Riviera and Aluni is going for $201/pt.

The thing is that new owners can't buy small contracts direct so they don't have that option. For existing owners the prices on small contracts often make direct the better option.

 

[kanerf]

The thing is that new owners can't buy small contracts direct so they don't have that option. For existing owners the prices on small contracts often make direct the better option.

Which may explain why the resales are not being purchased. I was able to find a 25 pointer at $175 which I jumped on. Different use year than my others, but I really wanted a BLT. I can trade into it sometimes, but I wanted to have some points there. I am on the lookout now for a 50 to 75 pointer to go with.

 

[JETSDAD]

Which may explain why the resales are not being purchased. I was able to find a 25 pointer at $175 which I jumped on. Different use year than my others, but I really wanted a BLT. I can trade into it sometimes, but I wanted to have some points there. I am on the lookout now for a 50 to 75 pointer to go with.

The small resale contracts are selling though. Of all the active BLT contracts with the sponsor there are only 2 contracts 50 pts or less that are still active. There was a 50 pt contract listed at $205 which is pending (no idea at what price of course).

 

[FamilyMc]

Those are sale prices, not list prices.

Yes, the average sales prices should be based on the actual negotiated per point prices.

I recorded the listings from beginning of September (probably some contracts were not taken into account from the first days) until today.

Approximately 33 BTL contracts switched from “available/new/reduced/…” to “Offer accepted” during September. Averaging these 33 contracts, the listed price is 177.79$/pt. The small contracts are more expensive, thus, you have to weight the price on the amount of offered points. Taking this into account, the listed weighted price is 172.68$/pt. If you take into account a 5$ negotiation discount, the September actual sales price could be around 167 to 168 $/pt.

My first guess without a closer look to my Excel sheets was a little bit too low. I haven’t expect people are willing to pay 203$ for a 25 pt contract (which was gone on the very first day. Price w/o negotiation).

 

[RoseGold]

I watch VGF, and I’ve never seen this many. Not even early in lockdown, when VGF contracts were everywhere. Listings are up, prices are up!

Resale is so high it has gone higher than the cheaper direct. This is the obvious outcome of no new construction and lack of demand for RIV/AUL. And so DVC buys back OKW/SSR, all prices go up, and Disney becomes a resale broker.

This is why I think VGF2 prices are going through the roof.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

As Disney keeps raising prices on every thing, tickets, food, parking, no DME or luggage service, restrictions on park admission ... many DVCer's are selling to recover what they can before the bottom drop out. WDW is doomed if they don't change their policies quickly.

We may see a pause at some point. No way a bottom falling out. WDW is the number #1 vacation destination in the world. There is no other competition. When they build, people will buy. People are paying NOW the rediculously high after hours events ( Boo to You, Very Merry Holiday or what ever it’s called). There are lines at the kiosks for AP’s. I am not seeing a pull back on anything Disney is raising a price on.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The flood of BLT contracts started 2 months ago. Not sure why but I’m guessing it’s reached it’s life cycle amongst original owners who bought in 2010-2011 and are looking to cash in. I could see avg prices drop to about $155pp in the next few months before buying season starts again early next year. Any lower than that and the ROFR monster might take over. Just my 2 cents. Can’t wait for BLT to get its next hard refurb, which will probably increase its value again. The location can’t be beat.

 

[sethschroeder]

I haven't looked at the data but a theory someone posted in the past was that AKV was being driven down by a resale cycle where there is an uptick about 10 years out from launch. Well right now AKV seemed to be coming out of that while BLT is now entering that phase.

Like I said have no data I have pulled or looked at but it was a theory and if you are saying you are seeing more contracts and its only for BLT maybe its true.

People would need to look to see monthly points sold via resale per resort and track it long term to see what that movement is. I know some people have tracked it to an extent and I did some calculations off of it to check what the typical resale flip is (about 1% of points per year at each resort) but not sure anyone has checked the peaks and valleys of when people sell.