A ? for Daughtry fans.

[bicker]

All I'm talking about is objective facts based on today's radio market. What happened with Billy Joel almost 30 years ago is as relevant as what happened with R.E.M. 20 years ago when thier entire market was college radio and it was absurd to consider them being playing on AC--of course they are now a mainstay of that market, and the thought of R.E.M. being played on college radio today is as absurd as them being played on AC back then. In other words there is no relevency in today's marketplace.

I disagree completely, and your examples support my argument: All we know now is how the "rock stars" versus "pop stars" from 10 years ago fared over the past 10 years. Your examples showed that we cannot use that to preduct how the "rock stars" versus "pop stars" from today will fare over the next 10 years.

 

[ducklite]

I disagree completely, and your examples support my argument: All we know now is how the "rock stars" versus "pop stars" from 10 years ago fared over the past 10 years. Your examples showed that we cannot use that to preduct how the "rock stars" versus "pop stars" from today will fare over the next 10 years.

We've both used extreme examples. Let me show you fact. In 1990, the top 20 Billboard songs were as follows:

# 1 Because I Love You (The Postman Song)
- Stevie B # 1
# 2 Nothing Compares 2 U
- Sinead O'Connor # 1
# 3 Vision Of love
- Mariah Carey # 1
# 4 Vogue
- Madonna # 1
# 5 Escapade
- Janet Jackson # 1
# 6 Love Takes Time
- Mariah Carey # 1
# 7 Opposites Attract
- Paula Abdul with The Wild Pair # 1
# 8 Step By Step
- New Kids On The Block # 1
# 9 How Am I Supposed To Live Without You
- Michael Bolton # 1
# 10 It Must Have Been Love
- Roxette # 1
# 11 Black Velvet
- Alannah Myles # 1
# 12 Release Me
- Wilson Phillips # 1
# 13 She Ain't Worth It
- Glenn Medeiros (Featuring Bobby Brown) # 1
# 14 Hold On
- Wilson Phillips # 1
# 15 Blaze Of Glory
- Jon Bon Jovi # 1
# 16 I'm Your Baby Tonight
- Whitney Houston # 1
# 17 Close To You
- Maxi Priest # 1
# 18 I Don't Have The Heart
- James Ingram # 1
# 19 Ice Ice Baby
- Vanilla Ice # 1
# 20 (Don't Live Without Your) Love And Affection
- Nelson

Lots of "Going, Gone, Who?" pop artists, the ONLY rock artist, Bon Jovi, is still around and arguably as popular as ever. (I can't call the basically one-hit wonder Nelson a rock artist even though they were played on mainstream rock stations--they were like Daughtry and also received Hot AC play.) The only "pop" artist on that very pop oriented list who can still sell CD's is Madonna, and her sales are not what they once were.

I can show you the same thing in 1998:

1 My Heart Will Go On Celine Dion
2 I Don't Want To Miss A Thing Aerosmith
3 Iris Goo Goo Dolls
4 One Week Barenaked Ladies
5 Torn Natalie Imbruglia
6 The Boy Is Mine Brandy & Monica
7 Jumper Third Eye Blind
8 Uninvited Alanis Morissette
9 All My Life K-Ci & JoJo
10 Together Again Janet Jackson
11 Show Me Love Robyn
12 Truly Madly Deeply Savage Garden
13 Gettin' Jiggy Wit It Will Smith
14 Just The Two Of Us Will Smith
15 I Get Lonely Janet Jackson
16 3 AM Matchbox 20
17 Save Tonight Eagle-Eye Cherry
18 Tearin' Up My Heart 'N Sync
19 Too Close Next
20 The Way Fastball

Almost across the board the "pop stars" are in the cut-out bin, while the "rock stars" are still performing and selling millions of CD's. Particularly with Hot AC acts, they are generally yesterdays news after six months of no chart action. As you can see by these charts, almost across the board the ones that are the most obviously one-hit wonders are pop stars.

Anne

 

[bicker]

You haven't proven though that Bon Jovi was never marketed to pop stations. Again, you cannot make both sides of an equation subjective and then use the equation to prove an implication from the left side to the right.

 

[ducklite]

You haven't proven though that Bon Jovi was never marketed to pop stations. Again, you cannot make both sides of an equation subjective and then use the equation to prove an implication from the left side to the right.

In 1990 Bon Jovi was entirely marketed to Active Rock Radio, with a slight crossover to mainstream rock radio. His label was absolutely not marketing him to Hot AC radio. Bon Jovi was being pushed to the same stations (thus audience) as Motely Crue, G-N-R, Aerosmith, and Winger. I was working full time in that industry at the time and watched charts for adds each week. The Bon Jovi of 1990 was significantly edgier than the Bon Jovi of today, and was not even close to appropriate for Hot AC.

Anne

 

[sweet angel]

Now that I'm home and have had a chance to read this thread, here's what I have to say...

PERSONALLY, I would consider Daughtry much closer to "rock" than Bon Jovi.

PERSONALLY, I have heard Daughtry on the local top 40 stations AS WELL AS the rock stations that play Saliva, Disturbed, Buckcherry, Crossfade, etc.

PERSONALLY, I would not liken Daughtry to Matchbox Twenty or John Mayer or (gasp) James Blunt (please...my ears are still bleeding!).

Just my opinion.

Oh...and Scott Weiland gives me the heebie jeebies. Good voice, but please don't make me watch him!

 

[LiLIrishChick63]

Howard Benson is an amazing producer. The problem is that the label is calling every shot to package Daughtry as a psuedo-rocker to appeal to a wide audience.

The whole "appropriately pierced and mohawked sidemen" thing cracked me up, because those guys look as tame as tame comes. With a few quick strokes with a comb, every one of them could work on Wall Street. Short hair, no easily visable tattoo's that I can see, it's actually a pretty lame look.

But then again I've always said that while no doubt Daughtry is a good singer, his look is far from original. In fact I can name 15 other guys in currently unsigned bands who have the same look and can sing equally well if not better. While I"m not knocking him, I am saying that he had the third element that it takes to "be a rock star," which in all honesty is the most important. The first is talent. The second is look. The third is the dumb luck of being in the right place at the right time.

Anne

thank you. i said the same thing when he was on Idol "i can go down the street to the local bar and hear someone who sounds just like this, or even better!"

i like how he talks about how original he is when during Idol he ripped off Live's version of a song and pushed it off as his "own" until Live chimed in saying "no no, that wasn't YOUR original version, that was OUR version"

and then he did it again with the first single off his album. claimed he wrote it, and he didn't even write it.

 

[chyam]

Now that I'm home and have had a chance to read this thread, here's what I have to say...

PERSONALLY, I would consider Daughtry much closer to "rock" than Bon Jovi.

PERSONALLY, I have heard Daughtry on the local top 40 stations AS WELL AS the rock stations that play Saliva, Disturbed, Buckcherry, Crossfade, etc.

PERSONALLY, I would not liken Daughtry to Matchbox Twenty or John Mayer or (gasp) James Blunt (please...my ears are still bleeding!).

Just my opinion.

Oh...and Scott Weiland gives me the heebie jeebies. Good voice, but please don't make me watch him!

I agree with you 100%..........especially the Scott Weiland comment. The point is the AVERAGE person could give a damn about AC charts, college charts or anything else they want to chart. If the song is out there and people like it they will buy it........Heck I even have some BayCity Roller albums around! But you know what at the time I did like them.......no critic or radio station or anyone in between is going to tell me what my ear likes. The point is we all have different tastes and likes and whether we will still like them 5 or 20 years from now we cares. I went to my 1st BonJovi concert last year, I was not into them when they first were big and quite honestly it was probably the best concert I have been to and I would gladly pay to see them again, I also am a huge Dave Mason fan and anytime he is around I will see him, I could care less if someone thinks he is washed up and old, that old man can play that guitar.

 

[2BigKIdz]

The band he used in the studio is the band he's been performing with, with only one change (rhythm guitar).

I know his new guitarist, this is him if anyone is interested-

http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=34091248

He was in a band called My Dog Lucy that was really popular here (Charlottesville, VA) before they broke up, then he was in Sick Shot.

 

[Papa Deuce]

Now that I'm home and have had a chance to read this thread, here's what I have to say...

PERSONALLY, I would consider Daughtry much closer to "rock" than Bon Jovi.

PERSONALLY, I have heard Daughtry on the local top 40 stations AS WELL AS the rock stations that play Saliva, Disturbed, Buckcherry, Crossfade, etc.

PERSONALLY, I would not liken Daughtry to Matchbox Twenty or John Mayer or (gasp) James Blunt (please...my ears are still bleeding!).

Just my opinion.

Oh...and Scott Weiland gives me the heebie jeebies. Good voice, but please don't make me watch him!

You're beautiful; it's true.

 

[sweet angel]

You're beautiful; it's true.

grrrrrr

 

[ducklite]

You guys are missing what I am saying. For the record:

Daughtry has talent, he's got a good voice and a generic enough look and sound to being appealing in pop culture.

As time goes on and he's no longer the "it" boy, he will have a difficult sitting the fence between rock and pop.

The pop audience is more fickle, and while his first single will undoubtedly get play for years to come on AC stations, a year from now it won't be heard on hot AC. Generally speaking AC follows hot AC's adds on new artists and songs. So if he doesn't have continued success on Hot AC, he's not going to get anything new introduced to AC--while they will continue to play highly successful singles for the next 20 years, it will not be in regular rotation.

He's too "pop" to have continued success on Active Rock stations who are currently playing him only because he's the "it" boy and "close enough" to fit their formatting--for now. That will not last unless he's got some heavier material in his pocket. He can't continue to compete against KoRn, Sevendust, Breaking Benjamin, Three Days Grace, Godsmack, etc. on those stations with what are essentially power ballads. Active Rock has a very tight playlist--IMHO sometimes too tight--and they only allow one slot every hour or three for anything that's not on a current chart. If he brings out heavier material, he won't get played on Hot AC.

He "might" continue getting play on mainstream rock stations, but moving forward he'll need to get a little edgier, a little riffier to continue to get more than an "honorable mention of adds" there. Again,if he gets edgier he'll no longer fit the Hot AC format. WRIF and WWBN will add anyone whose got $20,000 to hand Lee Arnold or Bill McGathy. It doesn't work that way with Val Garris, who controls the playlist of a good 35% of the mainstream rock stations in the US.

Bottom line, to continue to be a standout success story, he will need to choose a side of the fence and for the most part stay there. That doesn't mean he'll never have a crossover song. But it's highly doubtful that he will be able to continue having the crossover success that he's currently seeing.

That's all I'm saying. If anyone who actually works in the music or radio industry disagrees, I'd like to hear your opinion.

And for the records, Weiland is creepy looking, but I love his voice with the types of bands he's been with.

Anne

 

[sweet angel]

I get what you're saying for the most part, I think it's HOW you're saying it that is getting people up in arms.

I think that he's been packaged right now to appeal to a larger market (outside of just AI fans) and hope that he will go with his rocker roots in the long run instead of going pop. It does sort of make you stop for a second when you hear "10,000 Fists in the Air" followed by "It's Not Over"

Perhaps he'll be one of the lucky ones who will have loyal followers who will listen to him regardless of what he sings.

 

[RadioNate]

That's all I'm saying. If anyone who actually works in the music or radio industry disagrees, I'd like to hear your opinion.


Anne

I'll agree. Mostly.

Pop radio is cycling back to more rock based....Daughtry, My Chemical Romance, Fall Out Boy, All American Rejects, 30 Seconds to Mars. So I think Daughtry will have a decent run because he is at the begining(ish) of the trend rather than the end.

There are always break outs that overcome any trend differences but I don't think Daughtry will be that band. Not based on this album (which I own and enjoy) so in that respect I have to agree they are going to have to pick a side going on. Hopefully they wil have built up a big enough base to carry it through.

 

[ducklite]

I'll agree. Mostly.

Pop radio is cycling back to more rock based....Daughtry, My Chemical Romance, Fall Out Boy, All American Rejects, 30 Seconds to Mars. So I think Daughtry will have a decent run because he is at the begining(ish) of the trend rather than the end.

I'll give you that. For this CD he should be able to ride the fence. But as we both know that cycle will end in 2-3 years--right about the time he drops #2. (I can't imagine his label isn't going to ride this one for at least another 18 months, and then it will take six more to record and drop again--I do'nt see him being able to write and record on the road--at least not at thsi point in his career.) And it's long-term that I'm talking about. Not the next six weeks or even six months. No one needs tea leaves to accurately predict what that will bring.

There are always break outs that overcome any trend differences but I don't think Daughtry will be that band. Not based on this album (which I own and enjoy) so in that respect I have to agree they are going to have to pick a side going on. Hopefully they wil have built up a big enough base to carry it through.

I agree, I don't think that Daughtry has what it takes long-run to ride the fence. In all honesty, I see him as the next Winger. The backlash might very possibly be enormous in four years. On top of that I agree that there's a paradigm shift happening. There's a new sound in town, and he's not "it." MCR, Monty Are I, Juke Cartel, and 30 Seconds are the "hot new sound" in mainstream rock and Hot AC genres. It's not my cup of tea, but I have to recognize that it is what it is. (I almost gagged when Stone declared Fall Out Boy "America's Hottest Band" on thier current cover ) Daughtry has a "classic" power pop/ballad sound, and while there will continue to be a market for it, it's not going to be the huge cross-over market that he's pulling from right now.

Anne

 

[ckay87]

Ok, for those of you who work in the industry, I have an actual question, and I think this pertains to somewhat to our buddy Daughtry. Could clarify your definition of "fizzle out?"

As has been stated throughout the thread, not many people care about their favorite artist "charting" or not. I always kind of observed that most artists who are willing to keep working (and I mean WORKING) are able to get, and keep, their music out there.

I could list dozens of artists who haven't charted in a decade or more (much more) who continue to release new music. Hey, look at Barry Manilow. Radio stations flat out refuse to play him, yet he releases new CDs about every other year. I'm a fan of a little band called Los Lobos - you might remember them from their 80s re-release of "La Bamba." Pretty sure that was the only time they charted, but they release new music regularly and tour like nuts. Lets see...Jackson Browne, Prince, Elvis Costello is still working. I don't know, there are a bunch.

So what I'm wondering is....do you really think Daughtry will fizzle out, as in have the plug pulled on him....as long as he keeps working (touring/recording/promoting then touring/recording/promoting again and again?) Or do you mean that he'll just cease to be the "it" boy on the charts?

 

[Mari annie]

I love his voice, his style..........it is very commercial..........but isn't that what sells?!



how many more days until 4/10?! TOO MANY!

I need some warm FL sunshine!

 

[LiLIrishChick63]

You guys are missing what I am saying. For the record:

Daughtry has talent, he's got a good voice and a generic enough look and sound to being appealing in pop culture.

As time goes on and he's no longer the "it" boy, he will have a difficult sitting the fence between rock and pop.

The pop audience is more fickle, and while his first single will undoubtedly get play for years to come on AC stations, a year from now it won't be heard on hot AC. Generally speaking AC follows hot AC's adds on new artists and songs. So if he doesn't have continued success on Hot AC, he's not going to get anything new introduced to AC--while they will continue to play highly successful singles for the next 20 years, it will not be in regular rotation.

He's too "pop" to have continued success on Active Rock stations who are currently playing him only because he's the "it" boy and "close enough" to fit their formatting--for now. That will not last unless he's got some heavier material in his pocket. He can't continue to compete against KoRn, Sevendust, Breaking Benjamin, Three Days Grace, Godsmack, etc. on those stations with what are essentially power ballads. Active Rock has a very tight playlist--IMHO sometimes too tight--and they only allow one slot every hour or three for anything that's not on a current chart. If he brings out heavier material, he won't get played on Hot AC.

He "might" continue getting play on mainstream rock stations, but moving forward he'll need to get a little edgier, a little riffier to continue to get more than an "honorable mention of adds" there. Again,if he gets edgier he'll no longer fit the Hot AC format. WRIF and WWBN will add anyone whose got $20,000 to hand Lee Arnold or Bill McGathy. It doesn't work that way with Val Garris, who controls the playlist of a good 35% of the mainstream rock stations in the US.

Bottom line, to continue to be a standout success story, he will need to choose a side of the fence and for the most part stay there. That doesn't mean he'll never have a crossover song. But it's highly doubtful that he will be able to continue having the crossover success that he's currently seeing.

That's all I'm saying. If anyone who actually works in the music or radio industry disagrees, I'd like to hear your opinion.

And for the records, Weiland is creepy looking, but I love his voice with the types of bands he's been with.

Anne

i agree with pretty much everything you've said.

that's why when he was going on and on about "omg i am SO rock" when he was on Idol, and then busted out singing Bon Jovi(granted, it was a decent performance, but Bon Jovi is not "rock") i knew where he was headed.

 

[ducklite]

Ok, for those of you who work in the industry, I have an actual question, and I think this pertains to somewhat to our buddy Daughtry. Could clarify your definition of "fizzle out?"

That's a hard concept within the industry, and as I answer your other questions you'll see why.

As has been stated throughout the thread, not many people care about their favorite artist "charting" or not. I always kind of observed that most artists who are willing to keep working (and I mean WORKING) are able to get, and keep, their music out there.

Selling CD's happens in any combination of three ways.

1. Radio spins
2. Concert/Live apprearances
3. Word-of-mouth. This can be anything from Myspace to a review in a paper or magazine to your best friends sister.

I could list dozens of artists who haven't charted in a decade or more (much more) who continue to release new music. Hey, look at Barry Manilow. Radio stations flat out refuse to play him, yet he releases new CDs about every other year. I'm a fan of a little band called Los Lobos - you might remember them from their 80s re-release of "La Bamba." Pretty sure that was the only time they charted, but they release new music regularly and tour like nuts. Lets see...Jackson Browne, Prince, Elvis Costello is still working. I don't know, there are a bunch.

This breaks into a number of pieces, and I think you might be surpised at who has and hasn't charted. We've been using radio and CD sales charts as one in the same in this thread--up to this point. In reality they are two seperate things. With a band like Daughtry, you expect to see the same results from both charts. With someone like Jackson Browne, you might--or might not. When he releases a CD he does chart on the AC charts as well as Billboard sales charts. (He is highly unlikely to chart on Hot AC these days.) Jackson Browne tours every years, but primarily playing benefits and festivals where his over head is entirely paid by the sponsors. I'm not sure that he could sell enough tickets to profitably headline more than a concert club tour these days, and it would have to be scaled back at that.

Los Lobos hasn't had a major label release in over a decade. They still get played on Spanish Radio, which has it's own set of charts, and have had radio adds on those stations with their later releases. They tour, but it's small scale, a lot of supper club type of places. Without a major behind them--and thus no good distribution--they sell most of their CD's at thier shows, which is the incentive to tour. They have certain geographic areas that they find continued success, outside of those areas they aren't worth the paper the handbill for thier show is printed on. They need to tour to pay the bills.

IMHO Prince never "fizzled out" he just reinvents himself regularly. The Purple One has two reasons for his popularlity. Maybe three. First, he has a dedicated fan base just like the other artists you mention. Second, his fan base is much younger than the other two I mentioned above, and bottom line, people over 35 don't buy many concert tickets. (I'm NOT saying they don't go to concerts. But the average 25 year old buys a LOT more tickets than the average 48 year old.) Next, he's ageless. That has allowed him to continue to grow a young fan base. Jackson Brown LOOKS old. Prince looks cool. The music industry values youth. A 20 year old female doesn't look at Prince and think "old man" she looks at Prince and thinks "Cool clothes." And last, he's always got a SMOKIN' HOT band behind him, which draws musicians to his shows, and he's always got HOT chicks in the band, which draws guys in.

Barry Manilow is in the same group as Tom Jones, Babs, and maybe Liza Minelli. They are legends in thier genres. They have huge, dedicated fan bases who keep in touch via fan clubs and word of mouth. It works for them. Barry's fans are my age and older. We're the girls that sent David Cassidy fan mail, the ones that had our first crush on one of the Monkee's or the Beatles. Those artists have sold gazillions of millions of records. They don't NEED to work. They don't NEED to pay back HUGE tour advances or recording advances. They work when they want to and don't work when they don't want to. Or need to have hips replaced, go through rehab, etc. Barry's label continues to record his music because through his TV appearences, Vegas show, etc. he sells CD's. His fans are insanely loyal. (My best friend would throw herself in front of a truck to save him!) But that loyalty didn't happen overnight. It built over the past 35 years or so.

The music industry has changed drastically over time. Now it's much more bottom line driven. Most labels won't keep an artist around if they don't sell well on the first CD. Maybe they'll give them a second if they can keep expenses low. I think there's a lot more competition out there each year. When I was in my teens there were three local bands to choose from to play our school dances. These days in Orlando I could name 25 just off the top of my head.

You touched on something critical. "I always kind of observed that most artists who are willing to keep working (and I mean WORKING) are able to get, and keep, their music out there." You are sooo correct in that observation. The problem is that for the artists that haven't built that fan base to begin with, they can want to work, but one-hit-wonders that aren't part of a niche market (Los Lobos for example) simply can't work because they can't sell. Did you know that Kip Winger has released two CD's in the past five years or so? He's out touring right now. Don't expect to hear "Headed For a Heartbreak" because that's not the type of music he's playing now. It's a lot more mature, and appeals to musicians. But then again guitar players/bassists have always realized how talented Kip is. But the caveat is that he's also playing small clubs in "B" & "C" markets, and traveling in a van rather than a shiny tour bus.

So what I'm wondering is....do you really think Daughtry will fizzle out, as in have the plug pulled on him....as long as he keeps working (touring/recording/promoting then touring/recording/promoting again and again?) Or do you mean that he'll just cease to be the "it" boy on the charts?

I don't think Daughtry's handlers are going to let him fizzle at this point. They will steer him in whichever direction they feel he'll make them the most cash the quickest. I think the wild ride he's on right now will subside though. That doesn't mean he won't still be on the charts or popular, but I don't think he'll be able to keep up this level of intensity, the frezy he's got going right now. I think his handlers are going to head him more towards the Hot AC world though, because short-term it's more profitable than mainstream rock. Handlers want to make as much cash quickly as they can, because an artist might drop them for another manager or label. In general they don't have the artists best interest at heart, they have the bottom line and profits. RCA is not generally known as a label that stands by artists having a slump either.

Right now it's almost "Daughtry Hysteria." People are into Daughtry because it's the cool thing to be into. But remember the Bay City Rollers? The Knack? Wilson Phillips? They each had a year of huge success, and where are they now? The same thing could easily happen to Daughtry. (And for the record, Wilson-Phillips had extraordinary management and a great label--they sold 10 million CD's in one year!)

Just because an artist wants to keep working it doesn't meant that they can. If they can't sell CD's and concert tickets, then they are done. I've seen far to many artists become huge and then fall off the face of the earth just as quickly.

I've been in this industry for going on 30 years, and have seen just about everything happen. I've seen the good, the bad, and the really, really ugly sides of the industry. It's a slimey industry, probably about the slimiest. The average professional hit man probably has more scruples than some of the people I've encountered--I say that in all serousness. I hope that Daughtry has the brains to never, ever trust anyone with his money, and question everything. The most successful people I've met in this industry knew to never trust anyone--not even their friends--and to always watch their back and their wallet.

Sorry this was so long, and I hope it makes sense as to where I'm coming from.

Anne

 

[ckay87]

Thanks Anne - that was a fantastic answer. Not simple, but thorough to be sure. Prince wasn't a good example, I admit, but I've always been kind of amazed how some of these other old guys just keep coming back over and over. I'm glad they do...it just can't always be easy. I'm very interested in the business of music, but won't even pretend to understand it. So I just sit back, listen and watch. Sounds like the best place to be. I hope for the best for Daughtry.

 

[damo]

Daughtry's weekly sales seem to be increasing. His latest week resulted in a sale of 90,000 albums in the US and he regains the #1 position on the top Billboard 200 after being on the charts for almost 4 months. It is interesting that his weekly sales seem to be increasing instead of decreasing. I take that as a very good sign. I don't expect Daughtry to capture superstardom but it sure is nice that he is capturing some stardom.