60% chance of rain

[veachjt]

Ok...I'm looking at my 10 day forecast and its showing 60% chance of rain next tues. How possible is this and does it last very long in Orlando?

 

[disrev]

It will change. Here now and the 10 day leading into our time has been all over the place on days 7-10. There will likely be rain some time close to Tuesday. May be a drizzle all say or a strong one that will let up. Bring ponchos and don't worry too much.

 

[Egdisney]

We went in Oct. For 2 wks leading up to the trip it predicted rain (40-70 percent everyday) for each day of the trip. A couple days out it changed to only arrival day, and I think that was in the early am before we got there. Not a drop of rain the whole time we were there!

 

[matheke]

Ok...I'm looking at my 10 day forecast and its showing 60% chance of rain next tues. How possible is this and does it last very long in Orlando?

You have a 50% chance, +/- 50% of that prediction being accurate.

 

[raven69david]

Don't start making plans until 2 to 4 days out. The closer you get to the date of departure, the more accurate the results will be. Don't use weather.com or any other site as I've found using the local weather stations to be a bit more precise in their calculations and forecast. 10 days ago the weather said 60% chance of rain....now it only shows 20%. If you've been here often, then you know 60% chance would really occur towards the late afternoon hours. Plus I live by this code "Rain clears the parks!" I see rain as a fast pass as most guest start to head out when it starts to rain. When this happens, I find the nearest E ticket ride and queue up. Works best at MK and not so much at Epcot as most duck inside the larger buildings (i.e. Test Track, Soarin', Spaceship Earth, etc). Plus if you wait a few minutes the rain event will usually be over as quick as it started. Been going there for years and this has almost always been the case.

 

[Lynne M]

Is it possible? Sure. That forecast means that there is a 60% chance that it will rain for some period of time, somewhere in the forecast area. As you can see, it's a fairly meaningless forecast for planning purposes. It could be raining in the MK and not in Epcot. It might rain for 10 minutes in the afternoon, there could be on and off showers scattered across the area, there might be all day rain all over Orlando.

I wouldn't give a forecast like that a second thought, and I certainly wouldn't make or change plans based on it.

Oh, I see you said next Tuesday - you mean the 26th? Don't even bother with a forecast that far out. If it turns out to be right, it's pure coincidence.

BTW, I just looked at weather.com for this Tuesday and next Tuesday. Rain's not predicted for either day.

 

[FLchick415]

It's said that if you don't like the weather in Florida....wait 5 minutes.

 

[TXStormtrooper]

It's said that if you don't like the weather in Florida....wait 5 minutes.

That's what we say here in Texas, too!

 

[fla4fun]

I wouldn't trust any forecast that is more than maybe three days out. Check our local news afiliates (WFTV, WKMG, WESH and WOFL) when you are closer to your trip. They will be more accurate than national services like weather.com (but even they get it wrong sometimes).

Now that we are out of the "wet" season, our rains come primarily from fronts moving through the area. So the length of the rain event is tied to how fast the front is moving. The winter rains are usually not as heavy as the summer storms, with less wind, but they tend to last longer - sometimes all day, or even a couple days if you get a really slow front. Because they are tied to weather fronts, the forecast is much more changeable based on how fast the front gets here (or if it stalls out and doesn't make it here at all). We just had a drizzly day here on Saturday - no hard rain, but drizzles and light showers most of the day - more "umbrella" weather than "poncho" weather.

For my winter trips to Disney, I usually take a compact umbrella, a larger umbrella, and my nylon poncho. I tend to use the compact umbrella more than anything else.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

How possible is this

About 6 in 10.