I was indeed. A small scale park makes a bit more sense. Something like what they hoped DisneyQuest would become. It still makes more fiscal sense to expand current parks though
Absolutely.... the next 10 years should be spent growing the current parks and increasing the turnstyle clicks at under-performing parks. To plan a 5th gate NOW or in the near-term would be folly.
I noticed you changed your statement from "never" to "in your lifetime." I don't disagree with that nearly as strongly.
And as for that 5th gate.. in 15 to 20 years maybe it is possible .. the world economy will dictate if it ever makes sense.
Oil costs more now than ever before.. but I can fly to Disney now for less money than I ever could before. Factor in inflation and it's MUCH cheaper now than ever before in the history of air travel..
(I'm speaking in US dollars, not Canadian dollars .. add in the recent change in currency valuation.. and the current price is below bargain basement for a flight from Maine to Florida)
Why? I'm guessing that economies of scale are ruling the roost .. more people than ever before want to go to Orlando. There are more flights to Orlando now... and those routes are generally quite profitable for airlines.
If that trend holds up (and I realize that's a big "if) and if the under performing parks can bring up their end of the deal (another big "if") .. a 5th gate is possible in 12 to 20 years.
For any that to happen, the price of oil can't exceed $150 a barrel in the near future. If that happens, I'd expect Disney to divest itself from major parts of their business tied to the travel industry and go to the licensing formula that A/V mentions.
I can't prove this .. but if history repeats and the U.S. elects a democratic president this fall, I fully expect the price of oil will take a huge hit downward.. a full-on slump. That would obviously be a 'good' thing as long as your name isn't Chevron or Exxon-Mobil.
There was a very interesting article that talked about the price of oil at the end of the first Bush presidency compared to the price of oil at the end of the Clinton presidency. I can't find it now.. but it's pretty interesting to read.
If I can find it .. I'll post it.
Disney's profits are VERY dependent on oil. So far the spike hasn't seemed to directly affect their bottom line in a significant way, but if the creep in pricing continues northward - I don't doubt that the face of Disney parks and resorts will change even more dramatically and even more negatively than we've seen to date.
And that would mean there would be no Disney-owned 5th gate in Florida -- ever. In anyone's lifetime.
There are too many variables in play not the least of which is who succeeds Iger at some point in the future?
I just don't think that any outcome is as of yet, predetermined...
If acknowledging that makes me magical-pixie-dust-spreading-fanboi, I can live with that.
Knox