5th Park inevitable ?

[The Pho]

So you get to play Iger for a day.
You see AK attendance grow with the addition of a new land. Do you double down on that park in hopes of more gains, or do try to invest in another park to prop that park up some?

What I don't think they fully know yet is whether the increase at AK is in part to the construction at DHS. When Star Wars is online, I'll be curious to see if AK takes a hit on attendance. That will tell a lot about what is going on. I think if AK maintains, and DHS increases with star wars(that is a given in my mind), then I think you see big investment in a project for Epcot to see if it can grow as well.

I think that AK will stay steady, DHS will grow. I think they'll then do something major at Epcot.

So in theory, if a 5th gate were to happen, where would the armchair imagineers place it? Location alone could make a huge difference in it's success. Do you put it right next to MK, on the Grand floridian side, and have a middle courtyard like disneyland and DCA, allowing for many common services? Maybe put it in close proximity to Epcot and DHS to make a 3 park mega hub?

Many things to consider on this. It's all very cool to think about. However I think any CEO to promote it is taking huge career risk, I'm not sure that environment exists anymore.

With Pandora, Animal Kingdom became a park that can’t be missed. It should grow because people making the Star Wars trip will want to see what the fuss is about. Magic will see a boost for similar reasons. People that don’t go usually are in Disney World, they need to see the flagship. Epcot has no must see draw currently to bring in people that weren’t interested before, it will remain the park that can be cut. I’m expecting Universal to see a bigger boost from Star Wars than Epcot, at least until guardians and ratatouille.

First those number show AK tied with Epcot in all intents and purposes which was why I made the comment that AK is on par with Epcot. I suspect your predictions will be correct. I can't wait for 18 numbers.

Yep it’s just barely in the lead but it was lagging and jumped substantially, still real close. The numbers will be interesting.


Placement for a new park is fairly limited without extra substantial investment.

 

[sachilles]

So in the same vein, do you cannibalize an existing water park to build a 5th themepark? Maybe integrate some of it's elements. Seems like the water parks are the black sheep in the family.

 

[STLstone]

I obviously don’t have the data but in the US people have limited vacation days so my guess is due to costs and vacation time that’s why you are 4-5 days as the promotions. You could have 6 day promotions but people might not be able to take that much vacation time.

I don't discount the 6-day-max trip theory. A 5th park would probably have people passing on one of the other Disney parks to go to the 5th park.

But if Universal is actually building a good park that temps people from Disney, would Disney rather see business leave their 4 parks to go to a 5th Disney park, or do they want to see them go to Universal's new park - where you can see 4(?) new lands in one place?

 

[rteetz]

I think it's more of a cost issue and not a vacation day issue. Most americans (looking at some statistics) get more than 2 weeks paid leave on average.

Yes but not everyone can/will take a week solely for Disney.

 

[disneysource11]

Sister parks have been discussed for all 4 parks with ramps and parking decks connecting the sets. The new parks would be similar opposites of the originals.

 

[rteetz]

So in the same vein, do you cannibalize an existing water park to build a 5th themepark? Maybe integrate some of it's elements. Seems like the water parks are the black sheep in the family.

With Volcano Bay in the mix now I am surprised they haven’t invested a bit more into them. They still are some of the highest attended water parks in the world though.

 

[rteetz]

I don't discount the 6-day-max trip theory. A 5th park would probably have people passing on one of the other Disney parks to go to the 5th park.

But if Universal is actually building a good park that temps people from Disney, would Disney rather see business leave their 4 parks to go to a 5th Disney park, or do they want to see them go to Universal's new park - where you can see 4(?) new lands in one place?

I get that. I just don’t think a 5th gate is the answer for Disney. I think further investment in their existing parks is cheaper and will help them keep people. Star Wars probably the best example of that.

 

[Moliphino]

I think it's more of a cost issue and not a vacation day issue. Most americans (looking at some statistics) get more than 2 weeks paid leave on average.

A lot of Americans don't use all of their vacation time (more than half of workers didn't use all their vacation time in 2015, for example). Some employers also make it difficult to leave for longer stretches of time.

I get my third week next year and I. CANNOT. WAIT. Two weeks is not enough for a whole year.

 

[rteetz]

Sister parks have been discussed for all 4 parks with ramps and parking decks connecting the sets. The new parks would be similar opposites of the originals.

Yeah... okay...

 

[sachilles]

I think 2 weeks paid is somewhat standard. However I think you must also consider that the family demographic is very important. Mom and Dad might get 2+ weeks off a year, but they may not get it at the same time. Further, it must coincide with children's school schedules in many cases. Some will have no issue pulling a kid out of school for a bit, but it would be once in a life time to do more than a week in my opinion.
It seems that kids have so much to do these days that finding a common week for a family to go on a vacation is tough thing to accomplish. I have no data to support it, but I feel like more things are being done to attract couples/adult vacations in the world for that very reason.

 

[sachilles]

With Volcano Bay in the mix now I am surprised they haven’t invested a bit more into them. They still are some of the highest attended water parks in the world though.

I would be curious to see what the profit and loss is on the water park units. Even for florida they are weather dependent, and feel like the running costs would be fairly high. I also find it odd how they package entrance to those parks. It has to be an add on. That tells me they are pushing for more people at them, which seems weird. It's sort of an odd case.

 

[rteetz]

I would be curious to see what the profit and loss is on the water park units. Even for florida they are weather dependent, and feel like the running costs would be fairly high. I also find it odd how they package entrance to those parks. It has to be an add on. That tells me they are pushing for more people at them, which seems weird. It's sort of an odd case.

I think Disney is hurting themselves with them by making it so hard to get to them. You have to take a bus to other locations and transfer in order to get to them.

 

[sachilles]

I think Disney is hurting themselves with them by making it so hard to get to them. You have to take a bus to other locations and transfer in order to get to them.

That's what I mean, I seems like they just aren't interested in having you go there. You'd think they'd have you be able to go direct from your resort hotel. You'd think it would just be another park on the WDW ticket, not an add on.
My guess is that if a guest goes to the water park, it's a net loss compared to if they go to one of the 4 parks, thus they charge a premium for it. It makes Volcano bay an even more curious investment by Universal. Something just seems odd there.
It seems more like the water parks are a guest amenity rather than a revenue center.

 

[The Pho]

I think Disney is hurting themselves with them by making it so hard to get to them. You have to take a bus to other locations and transfer in order to get to them.

I believe attendance for both has gone down since they changed to that too. I know they’ve declined recently, can’t remember the year that change happened though. I used to go when the bus made it easy, but haven’t gone at all since the change. A water park bus would be nice again.

 

[rteetz]

That's what I mean, I seems like they just aren't interested in having you go there. You'd think they'd have you be able to go direct from your resort hotel. You'd think it would just be another park on the WDW ticket, not an add on.
My guess is that if a guest goes to the water park, it's a net loss compared to if they go to one of the 4 parks, thus they charge a premium for it. It makes Volcano bay an even more curious investment by Universal. Something just seems odd there.
It seems more like the water parks are a guest amenity rather than a revenue center.

I think universal made volcano bay more appealing to their guests. It’s right next to cabana bay. It’s well themed, and has bus transportation. Universal marketed it as another theme park rather than a water park.

 

[rteetz]

I believe attendance for both has gone down since they changed to that too. I know they’ve declined recently, can’t remember the year that change happened though. I used to go when the bus made it easy, but haven’t gone at all since the change. A water park bus would be nice again.

Yeah I haven’t been to a water park in years. Mainly because I haven’t been during a warm period recently though.

 

[disneysource11]

Surprisingly it would be Animal Kingdom who would get their sister park first. From what I've heard, Beastly Kingdom may not be completely dead. It all depends on how Onward does at the box office though.

 

[DanBoris]

Surprisingly it would be Animal Kingdom who would get their sister park first. From what I've heard, Beastly Kingdom may not be completely dead. It all depends on how Onward does at the box office though.

I don't believe for a second that they would do a "sister" park.

 

[Dfan79]

I don't believe for a second that they would do a "sister" park.

If you think about it, it would cut down on extra costs of building a new theme park. Roads and Parking Lots wouldn't be necessary to build if they did intend to share with the current parks. Plus it would be a better use of land to have a central parking lot like Universal Orlando does.

 

[Phicinfan]

So in the same vein, do you cannibalize an existing water park to build a 5th themepark? Maybe integrate some of it's elements. Seems like the water parks are the black sheep in the family.

This is one reason I question a fifth gate.

MK will always draw. AK has increased draw with Pandora, and I hear rumors of at least one expansion at some point(not including redoing Dino area).
DHS - with SW:GE will be a much bigger draw, but it will desperately need some more capacity rides after that opens.

The issue is Epcot.
IF the rumors pan out - we would increase Epcot with:
2 new pavilions in WS(Brazil and one other) and have heard of potentially 3.
WS will get ride in UK, Rat in France and a ride in one of the new Pavilions.
FW will have GotG, potentially something in WoL, new front gate and spine, and some enhancements to Land and Sea.
Outlier is anything to Imagination - which is for some reason always back seated.
Innovations - I have heard anything from added events there - to demolition, so not expecting anything here.

Even with all this, I don't see DHS and Epcot drawing if they built a 5th Gate. Folks will go to DHS for SW only. Epcot for festivals.

Just my $0.02, but I can't see Disney wanting all the expenditure they are putting in now to go to waste in 5 years or more if they built a 5th gate.

I will add, a 5th Gate will take some HUGE IP idea. So that will cost to invest in.

Net, I just don't see the cost for a 5th gate making sense.

That being said, IF Universal builds their REAL 3rd Gate, and hits a home run with its IP used(Nintendo being a lock), then we would have to revisit.

But, I think Disney is prepping for that, with the additions they have planned in current parks.